Juan Soto is gearing up to face the Yankees once again during the Fourth of July Weekend as the Mets host the Subway Series for three games starting Friday. This meeting is notable since Soto was a key player for the Yankees’ World Series run last year, and now he returns with the Mets, carrying some of the hottest home run momentum in the league. Highlighting his status, FanDuel offers +400 odds for Soto to hit a home run, making him one of the top <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/baseball/mlb/”>MLB home run picks for this highly anticipated day.
The Mets and Yankees matchup adds extra excitement as Soto looks to prove his strength against his former team. Besides Soto, other players such as Junior Caminero of the Rays and Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves are also recommended picks for home runs, supported by data projections from a cutting-edge SportsLine model. Parlaying these selections at FanDuel yields impressive odds above +8500, providing substantial betting value for Friday’s contests.
Juan Soto’s Power Surge Against Familiar Foes
Since June 1, Juan Soto has emerged as one of the most dangerous hitters in Major League Baseball. He ranks tied for second with 11 home runs in that span and sits third in slugging percentage at .680 while leading all players with a 51.9% hard-hit rate. Facing the Yankees again offers an extra edge, especially since they declined to match the Mets’ offer during the offseason. After securing the National League Player of the Month award for June, Soto appears primed for a strong showing against starting pitcher Marcus Stroman on Friday.
He is 3-for-10 with a home run in his career against Marcus Stroman, who he knows well from their time as teammates last season,
SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said.
While Stroman was strong in his first start off the IL, he struggled in his rehab outings, and we expect some regression based on his recent seasons.
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Data Analyst
FanDuel’s +400 odds stand as the most favorable offer for backing Soto to hit a home run, bolstered further by the use of a current FanDuel promo code, expanding the appeal for bettors.
Junior Caminero’s Rising Power in Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Rays’ third baseman Junior Caminero has been heating up his offensive production recently. He currently has extra-base hits in three consecutive games, including a home run just two days prior. His 21 homers place him tied for eighth across the league, and he boasts exceptional bat speed and a hard-hit rate of 48%, outperforming most hitters in MLB.
He has hit 16 of his 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers, so our model almost always finds value when he’s facing a righty,
Fetner noted.
Chris Paddack gave up two home runs in his last start, and over his last five starts, opponents are hitting .317 with a .925 OPS against him. Caminero is also 2-for-3 in his career against Paddack, which is encouraging.
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Data Analyst
Caminero’s home run odds typically range near +280 on most betting platforms, but BetMGM currently offers +350, making it a strong choice for value bets. FanDuel sets his odds at +285 for parlay purposes. BetMGM’s promotional offer provides bettors up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first wager loses, highlighting a prime opportunity to engage with this prop bet on Friday.
Ronald Acuna Jr.’s Return to Form With the Braves
Despite a recent stretch without multi-hit performances or home runs, Ronald Acuna Jr. remains a major threat at the plate. Since returning from a torn ACL in May, Acuna has maintained a batting average of .344 with a 1.047 OPS and 9 home runs over 37 games, averaging a home run roughly every four contests. On Friday, he faces Charlie Morton, a familiar opponent who has had mixed success limiting right-handed hitters.
He’s crushed right-handed pitching this year, hitting .382 with eight of his nine home runs against righties,
Fetner said.
Like Soto, Acuña is facing a former teammate in Charlie Morton, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit .294 against him this season. Morton didn’t allow any home runs in June, but he gave up 10 in his first 13 starts, so we expect some regression.
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Data Analyst
DraftKings offers the top odds at +450 for Acuna’s home run prop, accompanied by a promotional bonus of $150 for new users after a $5 initial bet. For parlay considerations, FanDuel lists him at +350, offering bettors multiple routes to capitalize on his power potential.
Recommended MLB Home Run Bets for July 4
- Juan Soto, Mets (+400): Displaying elite power and familiarity with the opposing pitcher, Soto is a prime candidate to deliver a home run.
- Junior Caminero, Rays (+350): Riding a streak of extra-base hits and success against right-handed pitching, Caminero presents excellent odds relative to typical lines.
- Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+450): Despite a recent lull, Acuna’s strong overall performance and matchup advantage elevate his home run betting appeal.
- Parlay opportunity: +8562 odds at FanDuel for combining these three picks, maximizing potential returns (odds subject to change).
Sportsbooks Offering MLB Player Props This Friday
Several leading sportsbooks have made player prop bets available for MLB contests on July 4, offering enticing promotions for bettors to engage with home run props and other wagers:
Caesars – Bet $1 and double your winnings on the next 10 bets using promo code CBSDYW.
BetMGM – Up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses with code CBSSPORTS.
FanDuel – Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.
DraftKings – Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets instantly for new users.
Fanatics – Bet and receive up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets with no code required.
bet365 – Bet $5 and receive $150 in bonus bets win or lose; use code CBSBET365.
Expanding Your MLB Betting Strategy With More Player Prop Insights
Beyond the highlighted home run props for Soto, Caminero, and Acuna Jr., SportsLine’s projection model provides comprehensive forecasts for every MLB player prop betting option across Friday’s games. With simulations running 10,000 times per game and a recent track record of success, these data-driven insights help identify value bets and improve the chances of profitable wagers.
This analytical approach is especially valuable during busy weekends like July 4, when several significant matchups unfold and betting interest peaks. Bettors planning to leverage Juan Soto MLB home run picks alongside other prop bets could enhance their outcomes by incorporating these expert projections and sportsbook promotions into their strategy.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. What is Juan Soto’s bat speed?
A. Ramos and Soto both experienced a decrease in their bat speeds. Initially, they had speeds of over 75 mph, placing them among the top 25. Their current bat speeds are now over 73 mph, which still ranks them in the top 75. Soto continues to maintain elite bat speed despite this reduction.