During a recent episode of the Rates and Barrels podcast, analyst Derek VanRiper highlighted an intriguing statistical paradox concerning Riley Greene’s batting. Greene ranks in the first percentile for squared-up percentage but reaches the 97th percentile in barrel rate, prompting questions about how this unusual discrepancy can exist. Eno Sarris followed up asking,

“How can he barrel it without squaring it up?”

which captures the heart of this surprising phenomenon in Greene’s performance.

Understanding What Squared-Up Contact Really Means

To unravel this, it helps to grasp the meaning of squared-up contact, particularly through the lens of Statcast’s metrics. Contrary to popular belief, a squared-up ball does not necessarily equate to a well-hit ball. According to the MLB glossary, squared-up rate measures how much exit velocity a batter achieves compared to the maximum possible based on swing speed and pitch velocity. If a hitter reaches 80% of their potential exit velocity on a swing and puts the ball in play, that contact is considered squared up.

This simplified definition can be misleading, as Davy Andrews pointed out when these stats were introduced. A hitter making a half-swing can still qualify as squared up if they reach the 80% threshold, but the absolute exit velocity may remain low. Thus, high squared-up percentages don’t always translate to powerful or damaging hits.

Riley Greene’s Unconventional Offensive Approach

Despite having a high strikeout rate, Greene’s offensive output has remained impressive, as Ben Clemens noted recently. Greene adopts an aggressive approach by swinging early in the count to maximize productive contact. What sets him apart is his ability to generate a high barrel rate without frequently squaring the ball up, demonstrating that consistent flush contact isn’t the only way to deliver impactful hits.

This surprising dynamic connects to the relationship between bat speed and contact quality. As bat speed tracking data reveals, there is a strong negative correlation between bat speed and squared-up percentage. Swinging harder often compromises the precision needed to square the ball, giving slower swingers an advantage in this metric.

How Bat Speed Influences Barrel Production

However, the downside of high bat speed reduces squared-up contact does not undermine its value entirely. Hard swingers tend to generate the most barrels, which are defined by Statcast as batted balls with an expected batting average of at least .500 and an expected slugging percentage of 1.500 or higher. Barrels generally occur within a specific window of exit velocity—above 100 mph—and launch angle, usually between 15 and 40 degrees.

Greene records an average bat speed of 75.2 mph, placing him in the 91st percentile. This explains why his barrel rate is elevated relative to his squared-up percentage. The gap between his low squared-up contact and high barrel rate is among the widest in the league, matched only by Aaron Judge, a player known for his power and ability to convert contact into damage.

Comparing Greene and Judge’s Contact Efficiency

Aaron Judge exemplifies how a hitter can produce many barrels despite not having elite squared-up rates. Judge has accumulated 60 barrels this year alone, a 25.9% barrel rate that ranks among the league’s best. Like Greene, Judge squares up the ball less than average but is exceptional at turning that contact into barrels. Nearly 40% of Judge’s squared-up balls become barrels, which far exceeds the league’s 13.6% average.

Greene is not far behind, ranking fifth in converting squared-up balls into barrels among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. This ability to maximize the value of squared-up contact is a key factor explaining how he generates power despite low overall squared-up rates.

The Impact of Foul Balls and Contact Profile on Metrics

Another crucial element in Greene’s profile is his exceptional rate of foul balls, which totals 315 this season and places him fifth among qualified hitters. When Greene makes contact, 56% of his balls go foul, ranking him 11th among his peers with similar playing time. This high foul rate, coupled with a seventh percentile whiff rate, significantly lowers his squared-up percentage because fouls count against it but not against barrel rate.

Foul balls increase the denominator in the squared-up rate calculation, diluting the percentage and pushing Greene’s value toward the bottom among qualified hitters. Meanwhile, barrel rate only considers batted ball events, ignoring fouls, allowing Greene’s power production to stand out independently of his contact challenges.

Explaining the Unusual Relationship Between Barrel Rate and Squared-Up Contact

The seeming contradiction of excelling at barreling without squaring the ball is clarified by considering that barrels are rare and valuable occurrences. Even the best hitters, like Judge, produce barrels on just over a quarter of balls in play. To join the ranks of the league’s elite barrel hitters, like Greene and Judge, a player doesn’t need to square up often, but must excel when they do connect, producing strong, damaging contact capable of sustaining power output.

What Greene’s Profile Reveals About Modern Hitting Philosophy

Riley Greene embodies a modern hitting profile characterized by high risk and high reward. His aggressive approach, featuring one of the steepest swing tilts in baseball, leads to many miscues and swings-and-misses. However, when Greene connects, the results are impactful enough to make him one of the sport’s most effective hitters. This approach contrasts sharply with more contact-oriented hitters like Luis Arraez, who prioritize putting the ball in play consistently over maximizing power per swing.

Greene’s unique balance of high barrel rate and low squared-up percentage paints an insightful picture of how modern hitters can succeed by leveraging bat speed and selective contact to generate strong offensive outcomes despite traditional metrics suggesting otherwise. As his career progresses, it will be interesting to see how this style evolves and whether more hitters adopt similar approaches to maximize value.