According to recent 2025 NFL quarterback projections, Patrick Mahomes may no longer lead the league’s top signal-callers as expected. NFL analyst Warren Sharp’s updated rankings place Mahomes behind four quarterbacks, signaling a potential reshuffling among the NFL’s elite.
Sharp released a tiered list ranking 38 quarterbacks from S+ to F, where Mahomes—despite his three Super Bowl wins—was positioned fifth behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels. This shift comes amid a statistical downturn for Mahomes in the 2024 season, raising questions about his future standing among the league’s best.
Key 2024 Stats Highlight Challenges for Mahomes
Sharp’s analysis pointed to several career lows for Mahomes during the 2024 season, including a yards-per-attempt average of 6.8 and 246 yards per game, both the lowest he has recorded. Furthermore, Mahomes threw only 26 touchdown passes across 16 games, a new personal low. His passing style also shifted, with over 30% of throws targeting or behind the line of scrimmage, the third-highest rate in the last decade, placing him among names like Jake Browning and Alex Smith.
The Kansas City quarterback also endured increased pressure, taking a career-high 36 sacks and 108 hits. While these numbers paint a challenging picture, they reflect the team’s circumstances more than a decline in Mahomes’ ability.
Factors Affecting Mahomes’ Recent Performance
The Kansas City Chiefs have undergone significant offensive changes, impacting Mahomes’ statistics. The Chiefs lost several key weapons over the past seasons, with top receivers Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Xavier Worthy not playing together prior to 2024, limiting the explosiveness of the offense.
Nevertheless, Kansas City is expected to adjust its approach, focusing more on pushing the ball downfield and emphasizing its wide receivers. Additionally, improvements to the offensive line were made through the draft and free agency to better protect Mahomes and aid the offense’s transition.
Despite the dip in numbers, the Chiefs have leaned more heavily on defense and special teams to secure 25 wins in the 32 games Mahomes started in the last two years. This strategic shift has helped compensate for the offense’s evolution, allowing the team to remain competitive.
Broader Implications for NFL Quarterback Rankings
Mahomes’ recent struggles and Sharp’s projections suggest a more competitive quarterback landscape in 2025. With Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels forecasted to outperform him, fans and analysts may see a reordering at the top of NFL quarterback rankings.
This forecast could influence how teams evaluate and invest in quarterback talent moving forward, reflecting the sport’s constantly changing dynamics. For Mahomes, the coming seasons will be pivotal in proving whether he can reclaim his dominant status amid rising competition.