The 2025 Midsummer Classic is only days away, and while the American League’s starting pitcher selection seems clear with Tigers star and reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal expected to take the mound, the National League is facing a gripping decision. Two pitchers, Paul Skenes of the Pirates and Zack Wheeler from the Phillies, are emerging as the frontrunners in what many view as a season-long duel for the NL Cy Young award, making the choice for the starting spot far less straightforward.
Paul Skenes, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year and the All-Star Game starter, remains a strong contender, but veteran Zack Wheeler is mounting a serious challenge. Betting odds reflect this close competition, with Skenes at -135 and Wheeler close behind at +100 according to BetMGM, while other candidates like Logan Webb and Cristopher Sànchez trail far behind. This showdown represents more than just a starting pitcher selection—it could determine the season’s premier pitching award in the National League.
Paul Skenes: Impressive Numbers Amid Seasonal Constraints
Paul Skenes is demonstrating impressive pitching metrics as he vies for the Cy Young, holding a 4-7 record but boasting a remarkable 1.94 ERA and a 220 ERA+, supported by a 0.92 WHIP and 2.37 FIP. Across 116 innings pitched, he has struck out 125 batters and issued 30 walks, accumulating 3.9 fWAR and 4.8 bWAR. Despite his underwhelming win-loss tally, traditional thinking that
“a pitcher’s job is to win”
could sway some voters toward Wheeler if other statistics remain close.
However, workload remains a notable factor for Skenes. After a slow start in Triple-A Indianapolis last year, where he threw just 27 ⅓ innings before his promotion, his total innings pitched across levels amounted to 160 ⅓. It seems unlikely the Pirates will push Skenes far beyond 180 innings this year, especially given their forecast to be out of playoff contention. Though 180 innings is sufficient for a Cy Young campaign—Corbin Burnes won in 2021 with 167 innings pitched—Skenes’ innings ceiling might limit his appeal versus Wheeler’s heavier workload.
Zack Wheeler’s Veteran Experience and Strong Season Performance
Zack Wheeler enters this race with a 9-3 record, a 2.17 ERA, 196 ERA+, and a 0.85 WHIP. His 2.49 FIP complements 148 strikeouts and 25 walks over 116 innings pitched, with 3.8 fWAR and 4.8 bWAR to date. Wheeler has finished second in the Cy Young voting twice before, and he has already surpassed 200 innings pitched in two seasons previously, which boosts his credentials relative to his younger competitor. This season could mark his best chance yet to finally claim the award, joining the likes of Gerrit Cole (2023) and Chris Sale (2024) who broke through after lengthy waits.
Wheeler’s veteran status, combined with his dominant league-leading strikeouts, WHIP, strikeout rate, and lowest hits allowed, may influence voters. Some could feel compelled to reward his sustained excellence and potential “last chance” at the award, given he is 35 years old. This psychological factor can be powerful, as voters reflect on career trajectories as well as current metrics.
Head-to-Head Comparisons Highlight a Tight Contest
The statistical duel between Skenes and Wheeler is fierce: Skenes leads in ERA, ERA+, and lowest home runs allowed per inning, whereas Wheeler edges ahead in WHIP and strikeouts. Both pitchers have virtually identical WAR figures, suggesting that the choice may come down to intangible factors or subtle differences in voter perceptions. Wheeler’s better win-loss record and likely higher innings total could prove decisive in the eyes of traditionalists. At the same time, Skenes’ rising national profile might influence a more modern approach to voting, though this factor’s true impact is uncertain.
There is a rare tension between favoring fresh, young talent like Skenes and rewarding the veteran persistence and consistency Wheeler embodies. Both have proven their elite ability this season, but only one will walk away with the coveted award.
What Lies Ahead as the Season Progresses
As the 2025 season moves past the All-Star break, the tight rivalry between Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler promises to be a focal point of National League baseball. Voters will continue scrutinizing their performances, innings pitched, and key metrics, while considering each player’s career context and team situation. Though Skenes is the betting favorite, Wheeler’s experience, durability, and statistics position him as a formidable challenger.
This intense competition reflects a thrilling battle on the mound, one that is capturing the attention of fans and analysts alike. With both players performing at an elite level, the NL Cy Young award could come down to the final weeks of the season. Whatever the outcome, this duel showcases the depth of talent in the National League and sets the stage for an exciting conclusion to the pitching award race.
“a pitcher’s job is to win”
— from commentary on the voting mindset
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Did anyone pull the Paul Skenes?
A. The family first got in touch with Fanatics Collect on January 2. Nineteen days after this, Topps revealed that an 11-year-old collector found the Skenes card in one hobby box.
Q. How does Livvy Dunne know Paul Skenes?
A. Famous gymnast Livvy Dunne and her boyfriend, baseball star Paul Skenes, are sharing details about their popular relationship. It all started when they were students at Louisiana State University.
Q. How much did Paul Skenes get?
A. Paul Skenes progressed through the MLB’s minor leagues and played his first major league game in 2024. In 2023, he received a $9.2 million signing bonus. The following year, he agreed to a one-year deal with the Pirates, earning $740,000 before arbitration.