This Major League Baseball season, Aaron Judge’s AL MVP dominance has been nearly absolute, with his performance putting other candidates in the shadows through mid-July. However, a few American League players such as Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr., and Tarik Skubal are proving to be valuable contributors whose second-half surges could create an unexpected stir in the MVP race.
While Judge’s campaign remains overwhelmingly impressive, it is worth examining how these players are impacting the league and what it would realistically take for any of them to challenge his path to the MVP award.
Aaron Judge’s Extraordinary Performance This Season
Across 93 games, Aaron Judge is delivering the best season of his career and one of the most outstanding in recent baseball history. His bWAR currently stands at 6.7, with projections indicating he could surpass the rare benchmark of 11 or more bWAR, a feat last achieved by Barry Bonds in 2002.
Some of Judge’s key statistics through early July highlight his offensive dominance:
- Leading MLB with a .356 batting average
- Second in the league with 34 home runs
- First in MLB with 78 runs batted in (RBI)
- Top OPS in MLB at 1.192
Judge’s advanced metrics show elite caliber across the board on Baseball Savant, placing him above the 90th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, bat speed, and hard-hit rate. Despite a relatively high strikeout rate, his outstanding walk rate and quality of contact balance that weakness.
Defensively, Judge continues to excel in right field, ranking in the 88th percentile for fielding run value, 85th in range (OAA), 97th for arm value, and 86th in arm strength. At 33 years old, he remains a physical powerhouse, combining outstanding offense with excellent fielding to anchor one of baseball’s best teams.
What It Would Take for Judge’s MVP Run to Falter
For Aaron Judge to lose the MVP race, he would likely need a significant mid-to-late season decline. This could mean a slump dropping his batting average closer to .300, a slower home run pace, and the Yankees potentially missing the playoffs after falling behind teams like Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay in the competitive AL East division.
If Judge’s performance cooled while one of the other contenders maintained or escalated their pace with extraordinary play, it could create a rare debate for the MVP beyond Judge’s dominance. Still, such a collapse would need to be dramatic to overcome Judge’s current lead.
Cal Raleigh: The Power-Hitting Catcher Making Noise
Despite a slow start to July with a .107 batting average, every hit Cal Raleigh recorded this month has been a home run. The Seattle Mariners’ catcher currently leads all of Major League Baseball with 36 home runs and ranks second in RBI with 76, just behind Aaron Judge.
Impressively, Raleigh is producing these numbers while managing one of the strongest pitching staffs in baseball and carrying a middling Mariners lineup that ranks 13th in both runs scored and OPS.
His batting average of just under .260 belies his elite advanced metrics, which include:
- 99th percentile in batting run value
- 90th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA)
- 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG)
- 98th percentile in barrel percentage
- 90th percentile in bat speed
- 96th percentile in walk rate (BB%)
Defensively, Raleigh is formidable behind the plate, ranking in the 81st percentile for fielding run value, 88th in framing per Statcast, and 76th in caught stealing above average.
Raleigh’s chase to break Judge’s 2022 record of 62 home runs is a major storyline. Only five players in MLB history have hit 36 home runs before the All-Star break, and Raleigh could surpass the second-most all-time mark with a couple more homers in upcoming games. While catching Barry Bonds’ record of 39 homers before the break may be unlikely, Raleigh’s power threat could at least secure him serious MVP consideration if Seattle makes the playoffs.
Bobby Witt Jr.: The Player Known for Second-Half Surges
Bobby Witt Jr. has a reputation for heating up as summer turns into fall, and he is already showing signs of that with 14 hits in his first nine games of July. Last season, Witt tallied a 9.4 bWAR, finishing just behind Judge in the MVP conversation.
This year Witt’s bWAR sits at 4.4 despite a slight dip in power totals. His .295 batting average, 13 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and .848 OPS stand out given the Kansas City Royals’ overall weak offensive lineup.
Statcast metrics underscore Witt’s exceptional athleticism and overall value:
- 100th percentile in fielding range (OAA) and sprint speed
- 99th percentile in baserunning run value
- 97th percentile in expected batting average (xBA)
- 95th percentile in average exit velocity
- 92nd percentile in batting run value
- 98th percentile in overall fielding run value
His known July and August performances reflect his potential to make a serious second-half MVP push:
- 1.300 OPS in July 2024
- 1.050 OPS in August 2024
- .979 July OPS and 1.010 August OPS in 2023
While Witt trails Judge considerably, a late-season surge reminiscent of his 2024 performance could reignite his place in the MVP discussion—especially if Judge unexpectedly falters.
Tarik Skubal: The Pitcher Making a Strong Case
Tarik Skubal has been the most dominant pitcher in the American League this season, posting outstanding statistics that put him in rare MVP consideration. His 2.02 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 116 innings pitched underscore his control and dominance, alongside a tally of 148 strikeouts against just 14 walks.
The last non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher to earn MVP honors was Clayton Kershaw in 2014, who finished with a bWAR of 7.7. Skubal is on a trajectory to match that value, albeit facing stiffer competition from outstanding hitters this year.
Baseball Savant ranks Skubal at the pinnacle in multiple pitching metrics:
- 100th percentile in pitching run value
- 98th percentile in fastball run value
- 100th percentile in offspeed pitch run value
- 97th percentile in expected ERA (xERA)
- 95th percentile in strikeout percentage (K%)
- 99th percentile in walk rate (BB%)
- 98th percentile in limiting average exit velocity allowed
Heading Detroit Tigers’ top-ranked pitching staff, Skubal could press his case by finishing with a sub-2.00 ERA, surpassing 250 strikeouts, and registering 8 or more WAR overall. If the Tigers claim the AL’s top seed, Skubal’s dominance could make him a serious MVP threat despite the traditional bias in favor of batters.
Recognizing Excellence Beyond the Front-Runner
There is no doubt that Aaron Judge currently stands as the clear favorite for the AL MVP award, his superiority in hitting and defense setting him apart from his peers. Still, the performances of Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr., and Tarik Skubal warrant acknowledgment, as each player is having an outstanding season by different measures.
Had this been the National League, these rising stars might be receiving more prominent attention in the MVP race. Judge aims for a third AL MVP and a second consecutive win, but baseball’s unpredictable nature allows for exciting potential shifts in the tightest moments of the season.
Wild second-half bursts from Raleigh, Witt, or Skubal could yet generate debate. Raleigh could break the 62-home-run mark, Witt might recreate his summer inferno, and Skubal could post numbers reminiscent of Pedro Martinez’s legendary 1999 campaign. Until then, the race remains widely considered Judge’s to lose, while the rest of the league watches the impressive efforts of the next tier of contenders.
“AL MVP if Judge Didn’t Exist”
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Why is Aaron Judge so special?
A. Aaron Judge is famous for hitting home runs. He is one of only five players ever to hit 50 homers in three seasons.
Q. How old was Aaron Judge adopted?
A. Aaron Judge was taken in by teachers Patty and Wayne Judge on April 27, 1992, just one day after he was born. When he was about 10 years old, he noticed that he looked different from his parents, which made him understand he was adopted.
Q. What is so special about Aaron Judge?
A. Aaron James Judge, born on April 26, 1992, is a professional baseball player from America. He plays as an outfielder for the New York Yankees in Major League Baseball (MLB). Aaron has been chosen as an All-Star seven times and has received the American League Most Valuable Player (MVP) award twice. He also holds the record for the most home runs in a season in the American League, with 62 home runs.
Q. Can Aaron Judge grow a beard?
A. Aaron Judge stated he will not start growing a beard, even though the Yankees have updated their facial hair rules.