The Denver Broncos made the playoffs in the 2024-25 NFL season, raising hopes they might finally end Patrick Mahomes‘ AFC West reign. However, ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell remains doubtful about Denver’s ability to overcome Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid to seize the division title.

Evaluating Denver’s Chances Against Kansas City’s Dominance

Current data from ESPN Analytics underscores Kansas City’s continued strength in the AFC West, with the Chiefs holding a 48.1% chance of securing their tenth consecutive division championship. The Los Angeles Chargers are considered the next closest threat at 26.1%, while Denver stands at just 19.4%, and the Las Vegas Raiders lag at 6.4%. This statistical outlook reflects the Chiefs’ dominance and sustained excellence under Reid and Mahomes.

Bill Barnwell weighed in on whether the Broncos’ recent progress justifies expectations of dethroning Kansas City. While acknowledging Denver’s improvements, Barnwell cautioned against overestimating the impact of Sean Payton’s new offensive additions.

I’m not so sure. Certainly some strides being made here, but there’s a little bit of projection happening with some of those Sean Payton specials from New Orleans,

Barnwell said Friday on NFL Live. He noted that Pat Bryant, Denver’s Day 3 draft pick, is being compared to Michael Thomas, and second-round selection RJ Harvey is touted as the next Alvin Kamara or Darren Sproles.

Evan Engram, who’s never been a red zone threat or a vertical threat in his career, is now about to be the next Jimmy Graham. I don’t know about all of that stuff.

Barnwell’s skepticism highlights concerns that while Payton has a reputation for enhancing player performance based on his time in New Orleans, expecting immediate, high-level transformations from these newcomers may be optimistic.

Bo Nix’s Rookie Year and What It Indicates for Denver

Bo Nix delivered a strong rookie campaign after being selected 12th overall, throwing for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His performance was a key factor in Denver’s push to the playoffs and showed he could manage the demands of leading an NFL offense.

The Broncos’ offense ranked tenth in points scored for the 2024-25 season, but their defense was even more impressive. Only two teams in the league allowed fewer points than Denver, combining to form a well-rounded team capable of competing on both sides of the ball.

This defense was anchored by cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who earned the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year award, surpassing strong contenders such as Philadelphia linebacker Zack Baun, Cleveland defensive end Myles Garrett, Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson, and Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt.

There’s things to be excited about here and the defense is excellent, no question,

Barnwell stated.

But remember last year with Bo Nix, they were protecting him a lot on third downs and in passing situations.

This protection manifested in Payton’s carefully crafted play calls designed to get the ball out quickly, including numerous screen passes, sideline throws, and run-pass options, limiting Nix’s exposure to pressure.

I wanna see him play better in those obvious passing situations,

Barnwell added.

And I wanna see him open up the offense in a way that shows they trust him in those obvious passing situations. This team was 1-7 against playoff teams last year before that win in Week 18.

So I wanna see them play better against tougher competition this year.

Denver’s 1-7 record against playoff-caliber teams reveals a critical vulnerability. While Denver performed well against weaker opponents, they struggled significantly when facing top-tier competition. This shortcoming raises questions about whether they can truly challenge the Chiefs’ supremacy.

Upcoming AFC West Showdowns Will Test Broncos’ Resolve

The Broncos face the Kansas City Chiefs twice during the season—in Week 11 and Week 17. These matchups will be essential in assessing whether Bo Nix and his teammates have developed enough to contend seriously for the AFC West title and break the Chiefs’ near-decade-long hold on the division.

For Denver, these games offer a crucial measuring stick after a playoff appearance and a strong defensive year. Overcoming Kansas City would symbolize a major shift in the division’s power balance and mark a breakthrough in their championship aspirations.