Shane van Gisbergen has established himself as the dominant force in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series, boasting a perfect record on road courses this summer with two victories from two events. As the series approaches the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, van Gisbergen is poised to continue his winning streak and potentially lead the entire Cup Series in victories by the time the playoffs begin.

Van Gisbergen drives the No. 88 Trackhouse Racing car and enters Sonoma as the clear favorite for his third win of the season, continuing his control over the road-course events.

Ty Gibbs Emerges as a Serious Contender for His First Cup Triumph

Amid van Gisbergen’s dominance, Ty Gibbs has quietly gained momentum, reshaping expectations for his 2025 campaign. Early in the season, Gibbs struggled, but over the last five races, including two road-course events, the No. 54 driver for Joe Gibbs Racing has demonstrated significant improvement. Since Michigan, Gibbs has not finished below 14th place and showed strong performances by leading 27 laps in Mexico City and finishing second to van Gisbergen at Chicago.

Advanced metrics from Racing Insights place Gibbs among the top 10 drivers in passing, defense, and restarts on road courses this year, while his average running position stands at an impressive 10.92, ranking him fourth.

Though Sonoma has posed challenges in Gibbs’ past efforts, averaging a 27.5 finishing position in his two previous starts, his recent surge signals that he could finally claim his first Cup Series win at this track.

Other Drivers to Monitor at Sonoma Raceway

No single driver other than van Gisbergen and Gibbs looms as the standout threat, but several competitors remain in the hunt to disrupt the leaderboard at Sonoma.

Kyle Larson, despite recent struggles with four finishes outside the top 10 in seven races, is a strong candidate for a turnaround at his home-state track. Larson boasts two wins at Sonoma, including a victory last year, along with four pole positions on road courses.

Michael McDowell, representing Spire Motorsports, faces pressure to secure his first win to advance to the playoffs. His performance data at Sonoma is promising; he leads in speed and long-run pace for the Next Gen car and has never finished worse than seventh on this track.

Chris Buescher has been consistent at Sonoma throughout the Next Gen era, regularly placing in the top five except for fifth or first place finishes. Buescher trails the playoff cutline by just 35 points and ranks among the top five in speed, long-run pace, and restarts at this road course.

Ross Chastain recently endured a tense incident during the Chicago race but still managed a top-10 finish. Sonoma has treated him well, with top-10 finishes in his last four starts there and a career-best fifth place last year. Chastain leads the field in restarts at the California track.

Projected Outcomes for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Racing Insights uses a sophisticated formula considering current track conditions, recent driver and team performances, as well as pit crew efficiency to forecast Sunday’s results at Sonoma Raceway. According to their race day update including practice and qualifying data, favorites are expected to include Kyle Larson and Shane van Gisbergen, while Ty Gibbs is projected as a competitive contender among the top finishers.

The top projected finishers include Larson, van Gisbergen, Christopher Bell, AJ Allmendinger, and Tyler Reddick, with Gibbs ranked tenth in predictions.

The Bigger Picture: What Ty Gibbs’ Surge Means for the Cup Series

Ty Gibbs’ ascent during this crucial stretch of road courses presents one of the most compelling storylines entering the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. After a challenging start to his third Cup season, Gibbs’ improved consistency and strong road-course showings demonstrate his growth as a driver and his potential to finally secure the breakthrough win that has eluded him.

Should Gibbs capitalize on his current form and overcome van Gisbergen’s road-course mastery, it will mark a significant turning point not only for his career but also for Joe Gibbs Racing. This shift could influence the dynamics of the remaining season and playoff scenarios, adding excitement as the series moves toward the final races.

“It’s been a tough start to the season, but the momentum we’ve built these past few races gives me a lot of confidence heading into Sonoma.” —Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing driver

Our Reader’s Queries

Q. Why does Ty Gibbs drive the 54?

A. In 2022, Gibbs was a full-time driver in the Xfinity Series, racing the No. 54 Toyota. His grandfather, Joe Gibbs, owned the team.

Q. Is Ty Gibbs any good?

A. Based on Racing Insights, Gibbs is among the top ten in passing, defense, and restarts for road courses this year. He also holds fourth place for average running position at 10.92.

Q. Has Ty Gibbs ever won?

A. Ty Gibbs, the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs, made a big splash in NASCAR in 2021. He won his debut race in the Xfinity Series at the Daytona Road Course. Ty then competed full-time in the Xfinity Series in 2022 and captured the championship during his first season.

Q. How good is Ty Gibbs?

A. Ty Gibbs holds the best average finishing position of 6.0 among drivers in both NASCAR Cup Series races on the Chicago Street Course. In 2023, he began in 12th place and ended up ninth. In the previous year, he started second, led 17 laps, and finished in third place.