Cal Raleigh Leads 2025 Home Run Derby Odds, But Byron Buxton Could Steal the Show as Top Sleeper

July 14, 2025

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is scheduled for July 14 at Truist Park in Atlanta, bringing together some of baseball’s elite power hitters. Cal Raleigh currently leads the 2025 Home Run Derby odds, while Byron Buxton has emerged as a strong sleeper candidate, promising an exciting contest for fans and bettors alike.

Essential Insights for Home Run Derby Betting

As anticipation builds for the 2025 Home Run Derby, bettors often wonder about the best strategies and options to maximize their chances. Popular bets include outright winners, but prop bets such as total home runs or head-to-head contests frequently present better value. Raleigh holds favoritism due to his league-leading 38 homers and consistent power, despite the fact that no catcher has ever won the event. Meanwhile, the opportunity for a sleeper like Buxton to take the crown is very real, backed by his raw strength and high number of no-doubt homers. For up-to-date odds, major sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM remain reliable sources.

How the Home Run Derby Competition Is Structured

The format of the Home Run Derby plays a crucial role in determining its outcome, influencing betting considerations significantly. The contest starts with eight participants, each afforded either three minutes or 40 pitches in the opening round to hit as many home runs as possible. After this, a bonus period activates where players can continue until they record three swings without hitting a home run, but an extra out is granted for any batted ball clearing 425 feet. The top four competitors then move on to the seeded semifinals, which run for two minutes or 27 pitches. These same rules apply in the final round.

First round: Three minutes or 40 pitches, plus bonus outs for long homers.
Semifinals: Four highest scorers face off with two minutes or 27 pitches.
Final round: Two minutes or 27 pitches determine the champion.
Key performance factors include bat speed, launch angle, and stamina.

This structure favors players who can maintain power throughout multiple rounds instead of relying solely on regular-season home run totals.

Favorites and Long-Shot Candidates in the Derby Odds

At the forefront of the 2025 Home Run Derby gambling odds, Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners is listed between +275 and +360 by sportsbooks such as FanDuel and BetMGM. His 38 home runs lead the major leagues this season, and his 85th percentile average exit velocity complements his fly-ball hitting style, perfect for the Derby. However, Raleigh’s intention to switch-hit presents uncertainty, as similar attempts, like Adley Rutschman’s in 2023, ended prematurely.

Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz is close behind, offered at +300 to +340. Holding the record for the hardest-hit homer in Statcast history at 122.9 mph, Cruz delivers exceptional bat speed and exit velocity. His main risk lies in a low launch angle that could produce grounders if timing falters.

Among sleepers, Byron Buxton stands out at +800 to +1000 odds. The Minnesota Twins outfielder, a native of Georgia, has 21 home runs and is tied with Raleigh for the most no-doubters, homers that clear any ballpark. Buxton’s pull-heavy swing aligns well with the hitter-friendly dimensions of Truist Park. Other sleepers include Junior Caminero (+950 to +1200), a 21-year-old Tampa Bay prospect with impressive bat speed, and Brent Rooker (+700 to +1100), whose pull-side power is suited for the Derby format. James Wood, with odds from +400 to +650, has attracted significant wagering attention due to his longest homer of 451 feet and experience with Truist Park.

Leading favorites: Cal Raleigh (+275), Oneil Cruz (+300), James Wood (+400).
Notable sleepers: Byron Buxton (+800), Junior Caminero (+950), Brent Rooker (+700).
Odds current as of July 14, 2025, from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.

Choosing sleepers can be rewarding, with longer odds yielding greater payouts. History supports this strategy, considering surprising outcomes like Teoscar Hernandez’s upset victory in 2024.

Critical Factors Influencing Betting Decisions

Successful betting on the Home Run Derby goes beyond name recognition, involving an evaluation of various elements such as the venue, player condition, and recent performance.

Venue characteristics: Truist Park’s short, 335-foot left-field line benefits pull hitters like Byron Buxton and Brent Rooker.
Player endurance: The multiple rounds place stamina at a premium, especially for catchers like Cal Raleigh who have demanding workloads.
Pitching quality: Reliable batting practice pitchers provide steady delivery; for example, Buxton’s coach Tommy Watkins is renowned for this.
Recent metrics: Monitoring players’ home run frequency and exit velocity in the weeks leading up to the event is crucial.

Buxton’s personal motivation, amplified by competing close to home with support from his son, might enhance his concentration. Raleigh, by contrast, has limited familiarity with Truist Park, recording only four at-bats there. Bettors should weigh whether a player’s raw power compensates for a lack of experience in the Derby environment.

Approaches to Maximizing Betting Value

The unpredictable nature of the Home Run Derby demands strategic betting choices to identify where value lies. Public betting often causes favorite odds to shorten, presenting opportunities in other markets.

Consider prop bets such as over/under home run totals and round-by-round matchups to manage risk effectively.
Target sleepers like Buxton, whose +950 odds offer significantly higher potential returns than favorites like Raleigh.
Analyze spray charts to identify players with pull-side tendencies well suited to Truist Park’s dimensions.
Keep track of social media, including Twitter, where heavy betting on contenders like James Wood can influence odds shifts.
Employ hedging by placing smaller wagers across multiple players to protect against unexpected outcomes.

An example strategy might be betting on Buxton to advance beyond the first round or surpass 15 home runs overall. This approach echoes the 2023 surprise victory of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., highlighting the Derby’s potential for underdogs to prevail. Careful research into recent power trends and avoiding hype-driven bets enhance chances of success.

Practicing Responsible Gambling During the Derby

Engaging with the Home Run Derby betting scene should prioritize entertainment rather than financial stress. Adhering to responsible gambling principles keeps bettors in control and helps maintain balance.

Set a clear budget based on what you can realistically afford to lose.
Limit individual bet sizes to no more than 5% of your total bankroll.
Avoid chasing losses by increasing bet amounts impulsively.
Utilize betting platform tools to set deposit and wager limits, such as those offered by FanDuel.
Take breaks if betting activity becomes overwhelming or stressful.

For instance, placing a $5 wager on Buxton at +800 could return $40 if he secures an upset victory. Above all, enjoyment should come before profit, and all bettors must comply with legal age limits. Those experiencing gambling-related issues are encouraged to seek help through available resources.

The 2025 Home Run Derby at Truist Park presents an exciting combination of star power and intriguing betting possibilities. With Cal Raleigh as the frontrunner and Byron Buxton poised as a formidable sleeper, the event offers numerous ways to engage. Whether Raleigh’s exceptional season culminates in Derby success or Buxton’s remarkable strength seizes the spotlight, understanding the format, player profiles, and ballpark characteristics will help bettors make informed choices. Maintaining discipline, exploring diverse bet types, and appreciating the spectacle will ensure an enjoyable experience for all involved.

Our Reader’s Queries

Q. Why is Cal Raleigh the big dumper?

A. Raleigh’s nickname became well-known thanks to his former teammate, Jarred Kelenic. When Raleigh got called up to the Mariners, Kelenic tweeted, “Big dumper to the show.” This marked the beginning of his superhero-like story.

Q. How much is Cal Raleigh paid?

A. JT Realmuto, who plays for the Phillies, signed a deal worth $115.5 million for the years 2021 to 2025. Cal Raleigh from the Mariners agreed to a $105 million contract covering 2025 to 2030.

Q. Is Cal Raleigh any good?

A. Cal Raleigh has hit 38 home runs and has 81 RBIs over 94 games, leading MLB in these stats. His Wins Above Replacement is 6.2, according to FanGraphs. This places him second in MLB behind Aaron Judge’s 7.1 for this season and fourth among all MLB catchers over a full season since 2015.

Q. How much does Cal Raleigh make?

A. Catcher Cal Raleigh and the Seattle Mariners have agreed to a new six-year contract worth $105 million. This deal was finalized on Wednesday. It replaces an earlier one-year agreement for $5.6 million that Raleigh signed on January 9 to avoid salary arbitration.