The 2025 MLB All-Star break kicks off Monday, July 14, featuring the Home Run Derby at Truist Park in Atlanta. Among the competitors, Matt Olson enters as the hometown team representative, sparking interest around the Matt Olson Home Run Derby Odds as fans and bettors wonder if he can hit 18 or more home runs during the contest’s opening round. The event follows the same format as in 2024, highlighting a high-stakes showdown where the top four players from the first round move on to a knockout bracket.

Details of the Home Run Derby Structure and Format

The first round of the contest allows each batter a three-minute window or a maximum of 40 pitches to rack up as many home runs as possible while having the option of one 30-second timeout. Batters advancing to the knockout rounds will face head-to-head matchups, with their hitting time limited to two minutes or 27 pitches in the final round. This format adds pressure and excitement, as timing and stamina play key roles in each player’s ability to deliver under the spotlight.

Favorites and Odds to Win the Home Run Derby

According to FanDuel odds, several notable sluggers are favored to claim the title. Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners leads the betting board at +300, followed by Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates (+350), and Washington Nationals’ James Wood (+380). Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins appears at +850, while hometown favorite Matt Olson holds +900 odds. Other contenders include Junior Caminero (+950), Brent Rooker (+1000), and Jazz Chisholm of the New York Yankees (+1400). These figures reflect a competitive field with power hitters ready to showcase their strength.

Insights on Key Contestants and Prop Bets

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’ catcher, currently leads the MLB in home runs with 38 at the All-Star break and is on pace to challenge Barry Bonds’ single-season record of 73 homers. Raleigh has exceeded expectations this season, setting career highs across several statistical categories and is viewed as a strong contender to reach the final round. Given the adjusted format, Raleigh’s path to the knockout stage appears promising, making him a compelling pick.

Power is a major factor in this event, and Oneil Cruz stands out with the hardest-hit home runs, topping an exit velocity of 122.9 mph on a blast against the Milwaukee Brewers. Cruz’s raw strength is key, even if his swing mechanics may lack polish. Junior Caminero and James Wood, both younger players, also bring notable power, potentially surprising spectators with long-distance shots that could exceed 479.5 feet, a significant benchmark for the longest home run in the competition.

Matt Olson’s Prospects in the Derby

Matt Olson replaces Ronald Acuna as the Braves’ representative and has previously demonstrated his power in the Derby, hitting 23 home runs in the first round in 2021, though he fell short to Trey Mancini in the knockout stage. While Olson’s odds to win the entire contest sit at +800, the focus here is on his ability to exceed 17.5 home runs in the first round, a challenging but achievable target given his past performance and the energy boost from the home crowd. Olson is also favored slightly to reach the final four, with odds of -115 to do so.

Expected Overall Home Run Totals and Influencing Factors

Though Truist Park is considered hitter-friendly, the total number of home runs this year is expected to fall under 232.5, according to Caesars’ odds. This prediction takes into account the new format and the cooling effect it might have on total output. The 2023 Derby set a record with 341 home runs, boosted by Julio Rodriguez’s 41 homers in the opening round and Randy Arozarena’s 35 in the subsequent round. In 2024, the total dipped to 225 at Globe Life Field, another venue known for favoring hitters. Weather conditions in Atlanta could play a role: temperatures in the low 90s during Monday night might aid power hitting but likely won’t push totals above recent figures.

“The Mariners catcher leads MLB in home runs at the break with 38 and could wind up breaking Barry Bonds’ single-season home run record of 73.” —Analyst

“There’s a lot of power on display at this event. Pirates slugger Oneil Cruz headlines this group, leading all qualified hitters in exit velocity in 2025.” —Analyst

“Olson is replacing Ronald Acuna in this year’s event as the hometown team representative. He’s participated in the Derby before, smacking 23 home runs in the first round of the 2021 event.” —Analyst

The 2025 Home Run Derby offers a thrilling stage for Matt Olson and other top sluggers to demonstrate their power, with a chance for Olson to energize the Atlanta crowd as he chases a high home run total early on. With talented players like Cal Raleigh and Oneil Cruz also in the mix, the showdown promises intense moments and could greatly influence fan and betting interest. How Olson performs could impact both his career momentum and the excitement level heading into the mid-summer classic itself.