As the MLB All-Star game unfolds on Tuesday night, attention turns to the thrilling race for the 2025 NL CY Young Award, spotlighting the 23-year-old Paul Skenes and the 35-year-old Zack Wheeler. The Paul Skenes NL CY Young race has captivated fans and analysts alike, raising questions about which pitcher truly deserves the honor based on their stellar performances so far this season.
Comparing Skenes and Wheeler’s Roles and Momentum
Zack Wheeler is chasing his first-ever CY Young Trophy, with this season possibly being his last realistic opportunity at age 35. His proven track record and consistent stats make him an attractive candidate for voters. However, Paul Skenes has emerged as a formidable competitor, commanding attention as potentially the best pitcher in baseball this year, a sentiment shared by experts including Tarik Skubal.
While conventional statistics might suggest Wheeler holds a slight edge given his experience and accomplishments, those who have observed the season firsthand argue that Skenes offers something more compelling. This underlines the tension in the NL CY Young race, where raw numbers and contextual performance both weigh heavily.
Pre-All-Star Break Performance: Statistical Breakdown
When examining key metrics through the first half of the season, Paul Skenes leads with an impressive 2.01 ERA, ranking 1st in the National League, compared to Wheeler’s 2.36 ERA, sitting 6th. Both pitchers have shown durability, with Skenes pitching 122 innings and Wheeler closely following.
Defensively, Skenes holds a .189 opponent batting average (tied for 3rd), while Wheeler edges him slightly with a .181 average (1st). In terms of WHIP, Wheeler again ranks higher at 0.86 (2nd) versus Skenes’s 0.93 (5th). Strikeouts favor Wheeler substantially, with 154 (2nd) compared to Skenes’s 131 (8th).
Though Wheeler has slightly better wins (9 to Skenes’s 4) and fewer losses (3 to 8), Skenes maintains more ground balls and has allowed fewer home runs, 6 to Wheeler’s 13, showcasing different pitching styles and efficiencies.
Understanding the Impact of Team Performance on Individual Stats
Wins and losses have traditionally influenced CY Young voting, but they often reflect team offensive support rather than pitching skill alone. The fact that the universal designated hitter is now in play further diminishes a pitcher’s control over game outcomes.
A revealing statistic highlights this disparity: had the Pittsburgh Pirates scored just four runs in each of Skenes’s 42 career starts, his record would be an astounding 28-1 instead of 15-10. This emphasizes how much the Pirates’ historically poor offense and bullpen have affected his win-loss numbers, factors beyond his control.
This season, Skenes has allowed only 27 runs in 20 starts, yet Pittsburgh has lost 11 of those games. The Pirates rank last in runs scored across all of baseball, trailing by 112 runs behind the Philadelphia Phillies despite having played one more game. This context is crucial when evaluating Skenes’s individual excellence amid team struggles.
The Intricacies of Pitching Under Pressure
Despite facing games where allowing even two earned runs often results in a loss, Skenes continues to deliver consistent, high-level performance. His career ERA in wins stands at a remarkable 1.19, compared to 2.39 in losses or no-decisions, indicating that his individual contributions remain outstanding regardless of outcomes.
Wheeler’s traditional edge in wins, strikeouts, and fewer losses is evident, but Skenes’s ability to generate efficient outs and pitch deeper into games speaks to a different kind of mastery. His approach contrasts with a pure strikeout focus and instead emphasizes control and limiting damage under adverse conditions.
Expectations for the Remainder of the Season
Both pitchers are expected to remain dominant through the second half of the season. Paul Skenes’s potential to finish with a sub-2.00 ERA and opponent batting average under .200 remains intact, highlighting his elite status. This could ironically coincide with an unbalanced win-loss record, underscoring the ongoing challenge posed by Pittsburgh’s offense.
His perseverance and performance under pressure arguably make his case more impressive than Wheeler’s, even if traditional stats favor the latter. The narrative of pitching brilliance amid limited run support might carry significant weight when voters decide the NL CY Young winner.
As one expert noted,
“I played and tweeted Skenes out at +115 to win NL CY Young and would go out to -115 odds prior to his first start for the second half of the year. I already played him at +300 on Opening Day to win CY Young, so I am double-dipping.”
—Vaughn Dalzell, MLB Futures Analyst
The choice is clear to some: Paul Skenes’s resilience and dominance under difficult circumstances present a compelling story for ultimate recognition.
A Glimpse at Other Season Futures Bets by Vaughn Dalzell
Alongside backing Skenes, expert Vaughn Dalzell has placed bets on various MLB futures, reflecting his insights into emerging and ongoing talent. These include Aaron Judge leading MLB in home runs (+130), Cam Smith predicted to win AL Rookie of the Year (+150), and Jacob Misiorowski favored for NL Rookie of the Year (-110). Other notable picks involve Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP and Garrett Crochet for AL CY Young.
Dalzell’s portfolio also covers potential surprise performers and team success bets such as the New York Yankees winning the AL East (-115) and the Dodgers aiming for 117-plus wins (+650), illustrating a broad, data-driven approach to the MLB season.
The Stakes and Significance of the NL CY Young Contest
The 2025 NL CY Young race remains one of the most closely watched contests in baseball, with Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler embodying contrasting yet equally enthralling narratives. Skenes represents a rising star excelling despite team adversity, while Wheeler presents a seasoned pitcher seeking a career milestone.
The outcome will likely influence how voters balance pure statistics against contextual challenges. For Pittsburgh and its fans, a win for Skenes could symbolize individual brilliance transcending team limitations. For Wheeler and his supporters, it could be the culmination of years of solid performance finally crowned with hardware.
As the second half unfolds, both pitchers will need to sustain or elevate their impressive levels to sway the final votes in this captivating competition.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Did anyone pull the Paul Skenes?
A. The family first connected with Fanatics Collect on January 2nd. Just 19 days later, Topps revealed that an 11-year-old collector found the Skenes card in one hobby box.
Q. Can Paul Skenes hit?
A. Johnson explained that he has complete confidence in Paul Skenes. Although Paul has the skills and drive to excel at hitting, Johnson agrees with focusing only on Paul’s pitching abilities. Jared Jones, another very talented athlete, is also following this approach.
Q. What’s so special about Paul Skenes?
A. He was the first pitcher in the Modern Era to achieve 150 strikeouts and an ERA below 2.00 in his first 22 career games. Since earned runs became an official statistic in 1913, only Steve Rogers in 1973-74 had a lower ERA than that in his first 22 starts at 1.95.