As UFC 318 approaches on July 19 in New Orleans, Louisiana, a tense debate has emerged among MMA experts and fighters over who will win the highly anticipated trilogy fight between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. The spotlight falls not only on the main event but also on the contrasting predictions from Paddy Pimblett and Tom Aspinall, two prominent UFC stars weighing in with opposing views. This showdown coincides with the broader context of Poirier’s announced retirement, making the stakes exceptionally high and predictions intensely scrutinized.
Overview of the Holloway-Poirier Trilogy at UFC 318
Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier are set to meet for the third time in what is being billed as a career-defining clash at UFC 318. This fight will mark Poirier’s final professional bout, as he has stated that he will retire after this event in his hometown. Holloway, on the other hand, remains motivated with ambitions to pursue the UFC lightweight championship, eyeing a potential title shot against Ilia Topuria if he prevails.
Oddsmakers currently favor Holloway by a narrow margin, but fans and professionals are divided as to whether Poirier’s hometown crowd and legacy will provide an edge or whether Holloway’s ongoing hunger for a title will tip the scales. The lightweight matchup carries additional significance with the BMF title also at stake, further intensifying the contest’s prominence within UFC 318’s stacked main card.
Supporters of Max Holloway’s Victory at UFC 318
Liverpool’s Paddy Pimblett is among the fighters backing Max Holloway to claim victory, suggesting that Dustin Poirier might succumb to the pressure of competing in front of his home crowd in what many anticipate to be an emotional farewell fight. Pimblett expressed his view on The Verse Us Podcast:
“I can see Holloway winning, to be honest. [I] don’t know why. I think it’s just one of them,”
—Paddy Pimblett, UFC Fighter
This perspective highlights the psychological challenge Poirier may face, despite his two previous wins over Holloway. Pimblett also noted the expectations weighing on Poirier as the hometown hero:
Dustin’s fighting in his hometown, [it’s] his last fight. Everyone expects him to win. The pressure – I think he might [lose].
—Paddy Pimblett, UFC Fighter
Adding to the chorus supporting Holloway is former two-division UFC champion Henry Cejudo, who believes the fight will go the distance and predict a Holloway triumph:
“I can see Max Holloway potentially getting that win,”
—Henry Cejudo, Former UFC Champion
Demetrious Johnson, a celebrated UFC veteran, echoed this sentiment on his Mighty podcast, citing Holloway’s greater motivation as a key factor:
“I’m going to go with Max Holloway,”
—Demetrious Johnson, Former UFC Flyweight Champion
Johnson argued that Holloway’s long-term ambitions provide him with a psychological edge, unlike Poirier, who can approach the fight free of future concerns given his impending retirement:
“The reason why is because I feel Max Holloway has something to look forward to after this. Whereas Dustin, he can come into the fight and just be like, ‘Alright, this is my last fight. I don’t care what’s going to happen afterwards.’ It is a little bit crazy to think that Max can beat Dustin, even though Dustin is 2-0. But I feel that Max can be more dynamic… Max has a new motive in this, and hopefully, he can get this done.”
Johnson’s analysis emphasizes that motivation and mindset could be deciding factors in the closely matched contest.
Predictions Favoring Dustin Poirier at UFC 318
On the other side of the debate, UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall has predicted Poirier will secure a historic third win and conclude his career on a high note. Speaking with TNT Sports, Aspinall highlighted the significance of Poirier’s home crowd advantage and momentum:
He also made broader UFC 318 predictions, favoring other fighters like Paulo Costa and Dan Ige to score victories during the event.
Michael Bisping, known for his fighting and broadcasting career, confidently anticipates Poirier’s success and UFC Hall of Fame induction following this milestone fight:
“Dustin Poirier is going to walk away and he’s going to walk away a winner,”
—Michael Bisping, UFC Analyst and Former Middleweight Champion
Bisping acknowledged Holloway’s capabilities but underscored Poirier’s resilience and power:
“I don’t think he knocks out Max Holloway. Yes, Ilia Topuria did that, [but] Ilia Topuria is the best boxer in the UFC… It’s going to be a spectacular fight. Max Holloway is going to have his moments. I know Holloway is going to point at the ground, and I know that Dustin Poirier will oblige, because that’s what he does.”
Islam Makhachev, former UFC lightweight champion and the last opponent Poirier faced, also expressed strong confidence in Poirier’s readiness and predicted his victory in an interview with MMA Junkie:
“I think Dustin has more chance [to win],”
—Islam Makhachev, Former UFC Lightweight Champion
“He told me this is his last fight, and I think he’s going to be ready. He’s going to be ready. He’s going to win.”
—Islam Makhachev, Former UFC Lightweight Champion
Kamaru Usman, ex-UFC welterweight king, described the prediction as difficult but ultimately sided with Poirier, emphasizing the importance of fighting at home and the challenge of losing three times in a row:
“This is a tough one,” he noted on his Pound 4 Pound podcast.
“It’s hard to go 0-3 in a series, because it’s like, ‘Didn’t you learn anything from the previous two times? Max has been looking really, really good. For what he was able to do against Justin Gaethje. I’m torn. I love both guys, but if I had to pick… I’m going to go with Dustin Poirier for this one. This is his last fight, he’s fighting at home, and from what we’ve seen, he’s settled into that power in the lightweight division.”
Aljamain Sterling, the former bantamweight champion, highlighted Poirier’s physical advantages and power as crucial factors at UFC 318:
“I just think Dustin has the size on [Holloway],”
—Aljamain Sterling, Former UFC Bantamweight Champion
“Even though Max is a good size 155-pounder, Dustin is a little bit more of a tank, and those punches just add up more. Max is more of a volume guy than he is a power puncher, whereas Dustin’s got that Chewbacca. He touches your chin, he puts guys down. This is going to be a good sendoff for Dustin – it’s going to be a classic again.”
“I don’t know if either man will get finished… Dustin looks like the surest pick for me if I were a betting guy.”
—Aljamain Sterling, Former UFC Bantamweight Champion
Anthony Smith, previous light heavyweight title challenger, also praised Poirier’s striking power as his edge in the match:
“Dustin is just a more impactful striker,”
—Anthony Smith, Former UFC Light Heavyweight Challenger
Smith expressed doubt about Holloway’s ability to consistently match Poirier’s power output:
“Max is great, but I don’t think he has enough power to consistently stand with these lightweights.”
—Anthony Smith, Former UFC Light Heavyweight Challenger
Veterans like Chael Sonnen and Rashad Evans align with the consensus favoring Poirier to win via decision, bolstering the heavyweight momentum behind his farewell fight narrative.
UFC 318 Main Card Lineup and Context
UFC 318’s main card features the lightweight BMF title fight as the headliner between Max Holloway (26-8) and Dustin Poirier (30-9). The co-main event showcases middleweights Paulo Costa (14-4) and Roman Kopylov (14-3), followed by other significant matchups including Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez, Dan Ige vs. Patricio Freire, and Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber.
This event serves not only as a celebration of Poirier’s career but also represents a crossroads for upcoming contenders and veterans alike, setting futures in motion across multiple divisions.
Summary of UFC 318 Winner Predictions from Notable Fighters
- Paddy Pimblett – Max Holloway
- Tom Aspinall – Dustin Poirier
- Michael Bisping – Dustin Poirier
- Demetrious Johnson – Max Holloway
- Islam Makhachev – Dustin Poirier
- Kamaru Usman – Dustin Poirier
- Aljamain Sterling – Dustin Poirier
- Henry Cejudo – Max Holloway
- Anthony Smith – Dustin Poirier
Significance and Implications of the Fight Outcome
The battle between Holloway and Poirier at UFC 318 is more than a trilogy fight; it marks the end of an era for Poirier and potentially sets a new chapter for Holloway. Poirier’s win would secure his legacy as a UFC Hall of Famer in a final, triumphant hometown farewell. Conversely, Holloway’s victory would maintain his momentum toward lightweight title contention, reinforcing his position among the division’s elite.
The predictions from UFC stars reflect the intense anticipation and uncertainty surrounding this bout, underscoring the tension within the MMA community as fight night draws near. Both fighters carry distinct narratives — Poirier’s desire to exit on a winning note, Holloway’s ambition to rise higher — making UFC 318 a highly charged event watched eagerly by fans and insiders alike.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Has Paddy Pimblett ever lost a fight?
A. Early in his career, after a victory, he competed for the Cage Warriors lightweight title but lost to Søren Bak in a unanimous decision.
Q. Did Paddy Pimblett ever lose a fight?
A. Even though Pimblett has lost three times, he has never been knocked out. He faced several fight cancellations before fighting twice in Cage Warriors and then moving to the UFC.
Q. Why did Paddy Pimblett get $200,000?
A. White first agreed to double the bonuses after Green asked at the pre-fight press conference on Thursday. Then, Pimblett’s bonus got doubled again on Saturday night. Interestingly, Pimblett earned this extra reward for submitting Green in the first round during the main event.
Q. Is Paddy Pimblett a millionaire?
A. Pimblett has used the UFC as a platform to promote himself. He is especially popular among fans in Britain and Europe, making him a well-known MMA figure. By 2025, his net worth is predicted to be about $5 million. In the UFC, he has a career record of 22 wins, 3 losses, and no ties.