The fantasy baseball community is increasingly distancing itself from Pete Alonso during the 2025 season, with PFSN users dropping the Mets first baseman from their rosters at more than twice the rate of pickups this month. Although Alonso secured an All-Star nod and continues to display strong surface numbers, several advanced metrics suggest his recent success may not be sustainable.
This shift, driven by Pete Alonso fantasy regression concerns, indicates that savvy fantasy managers are preparing for a potential downturn in his production as the season progresses.
Analyzing Alonso’s Statistics Beyond the Surface
On paper, Pete Alonso’s 2025 campaign remains solid. Standing 6’3”, the slugger is batting .280 with 21 home runs and 77 RBIs in just 97 games, while his .908 OPS ranks 11th across Major League Baseball. His RBI total ties him for fifth, achievements that earned the veteran his fifth All-Star selection, during which he hit a notable three-run homer.
Yet, these surface-level numbers do not capture all the nuances fantasy managers are weighing. The data from PFSN reveals a notable trend: Alonso has been released from 18 fantasy rosters this month but added on only eight, representing a 2.25-to-1 drop ratio. This behavior among fantasy players signals growing skepticism and the expectation of decline.
Further examination of his advanced stats uncovers warning signs. Alonso’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) currently stands at .323, marking a sharp increase over both his 2024 season and career average. BABIP measures the rate at which a player gets hits on balls put into play, excluding home runs, and typically averages around .300 league-wide. Alonso’s elevated figure implies he has benefited from unusually favorable bounces.
Behind the Numbers: Indicators of a Potential Slump Ahead
The jump in Alonso’s BABIP—47 points higher than last year and 54 points above his career average of .269, per Baseball Reference—raises immediate concerns about regression to typical performance levels. Such a significant spike often foreshadows a decline in offensive output over time.
His exceptional run production with runners in scoring position has bolstered his fantasy value, but this success appears inflated by unlikely improvements. Alonso’s 401-point increase in OPS under these clutch circumstances compared to last season is statistically improbable and unlikely to persist.
While the slugger has traditionally been a reliable RBI contributor, his current clutch stats seem artificially enhanced, suggesting the trend may reverse.
These regression indicators align with Alonso’s recent struggles at the plate. Over the last 30 games, he has hit only .231, with his OPS dropping to .398. Most troubling is his last seven-game stretch, during which he batted just .130 and managed a single home run. This slump coincides with fantasy managers’ increasing tendency to remove him from their teams.
Why Fantasy Players Are Turning Away from Alonso
Experienced fantasy managers are reading the signs correctly, anticipating a second-half decline based on unsustainable performance measures. Despite Alonso’s 21 home runs and proven power-hitting history, the accumulated evidence points to diminishing returns as 2025 progresses.
The Polar Bear’s reputation as a two-time Home Run Derby champion and his steady power production have historically made him a fantasy asset. However, now at age 30, Alonso may be entering the natural decline phase common to many power hitters nearing or entering their thirties.
For those still holding Alonso, capitalizing on his current value requires swift action, as his recognizable name and counting stats remain attractive to managers focusing mainly on surface-level metrics. Acting quickly before the anticipated regression becomes universally acknowledged is critical to maximizing trade opportunities.
The data indicates Alonso’s early-season success relied heavily on factors unlikely to continue, challenging fantasy managers to make difficult roster decisions ahead of broader declines in his performance.