Paulo Costa is set to face Roman Kopylov at UFC 318, a fight that carries high stakes for both middleweight contenders. Scheduled for July 18, 2025, this matchup between the #13 and #14 ranked fighters could determine who moves closer to a top five contender position or who risks falling out of the rankings altogether. Given Costa’s recent disappointing performance, his motivation to redeem himself makes this encounter crucial for his career trajectory.
Comparison of Physical Attributes and Fighting Statistics
Standing at 6 feet 1 inch tall with a 72-inch reach, Paulo Costa has a slight size advantage in height over Roman Kopylov, who is 6 feet tall but boasts a longer reach of 75 inches. This reach difference is notable, especially since both competitors primarily rely on striking in their fighting style. Statistically, Costa lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy but also absorbs 6.56 strikes per minute, defending 49% of incoming strikes. In contrast, Kopylov lands fewer significant strikes per minute at 4.96 with 50% accuracy, yet he tends to absorb fewer strikes per minute (4.86) and has a better strike defense at 55%. These numbers hint at a striking advantage for Costa but also suggest Kopylov’s durability and defensive skills could play a key role.
Fighting Records and Style Matchup
Both fighters demonstrate powerful striking finishes, with Costa holding 11 wins by knockout or technical knockout and one via submission. Kopylov’s record shows 12 knockout victories, emphasizing a similar finishing profile. Costa’s experience against southpaw opponents could be beneficial, as he has previously defeated notable southpaws like Yoel Romero and Johny Hendricks. In contrast, Kopylov’s submission vulnerabilities—having been submitted twice—might be a factor against Costa, who remains undefeated by submission. Both men share the same age of 34 and have an equal number of MMA wins at 14, although Costa has one additional loss, reflecting a closely matched contest.
Fighter Mindset and Statements Ahead of the Fight
Roman Kopylov enters UFC 318 excited and focused on extending his two-fight win streak. Speaking about the contest, he said,
“This fight with Costa is very special and I would like to show a better version of myself here.”
Further emphasizing his ambitions, Kopylov added,
“Every victory gets me closer to where I want to be.”
His recent knockout win over Chris Curtis with a head kick in the third round demonstrated his striking power and readiness to challenge higher-ranked opponents.
On the other side, Paulo Costa projected confidence in a quick finish during an interview with Ariel Helwani. He conveyed,
“This fight is going to be short, not 15 minutes, no way. Maybe two rounds, maybe in the first round. I think this is going to be a good collision, two guys looking for a finish. I will be there to finish this fight since the very first minute.”
Costa also acknowledged Kopylov’s strengths, stating,
“This is a great matchup. He is a striker and he’s southpaw. I know how to fight against southpaws. I know he’s dangerous. He has good kicks and a good straight left hand, but I’m very prepared for that.”
Context of Rankings and Potential Career Impact
Despite his confidence, Costa enters the fight as a +210 underdog, while Kopylov is favored at -250. Costa’s recent record casts a shadow over his prospects; he is currently on a two-fight losing streak and has won only once in his past five fights. Failure to secure a victory at UFC 318 could jeopardize his standing in the promotion, potentially leading to his exit. Yet, Costa’s history of knocking out fighters like Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks showcases his ability to deliver decisive finishes. The match is not only a test of skill but one that might significantly influence each fighter’s career path.
What UFC 318 Could Mean for Both Fighters
This bout promises to be a defining moment for both Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov as they seek to climb higher within the UFC middleweight division. A win for Kopylov would solidify his position and escalate his proximity to elite contenders, while a victory for Costa would mark a crucial redemption and renew his ambitions, possibly setting the stage for a future showdown with top-ranked fighters like Khamzat Chimaev. The fight’s outcome may impact rankings widely and influence matchmaking decisions for upcoming UFC events.