Stefon Diggs, a proven top fantasy wide receiver, enters the 2025 season recovering from a non-contact ACL injury sustained in Week 8 of last year while playing for Houston. Now donning a New England Patriots uniform and positioned as the team’s clear WR1, Diggs presents an intriguing fantasy prospect. With minimal internal competition for targets and a promising rehab progress, his Stefon Diggs fantasy comeback chance has fantasy managers wondering if this could be the start of a strong second-half resurgence.

From Past Success to Recent Setbacks

Diggs has been a consistent fantasy force, finishing among the top 20 receivers in points per game each season of his career except his rookie year and last season, when his ACL injury abruptly ended his campaign. Prior to his injury in Houston, Diggs was on pace for a WR18 finish, maintaining a solid target share in a crowded receiving corps. Over the past half-decade, his fantasy production ranked him firmly in the WR1/WR2 range, benefiting from his tenure with Buffalo and Minnesota along with notable performances in those offenses.

Despite his strong history, the torn ACL brings uncertainty at age 31.6. Diggs’ current average draft position (ADP) near WR43 contrasts sharply with his previous consistency, offering potentially significant value if he returns to form. This combination of past reliability and present opportunity fuels the debate on whether to trust him as a fantasy asset again.

Expert Analysis on Wide Receiver Recovery from ACL Injuries

In examining Stefon Diggs’ recovery prospects, injury expert Matthew Betz provides valuable insight into how wide receivers typically respond after ACL surgery. His analysis covers historical data on fantasy wideouts who returned from similar injuries, highlighting how some have bounced back strongly within the first year post-injury. Names such as Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, and Cooper Kupp are cited as examples of successful returns, although many did show a decline in efficiency as part of their comeback.

Betz identifies four key indicators influencing recovery success: maintaining a target share above 22%, having targets per route run (TPRR) at 24% or higher, frequent slot usage, and following at least a 10-month recovery timeline from injury happening before Week 10. Those receivers relying mainly on downfield speed or less integrated in their offense have shown more difficulty returning to form.

Assessing Diggs Against Recovery Benchmarks

Diggs fits well into these recovery metrics. Prior to his injury, he commanded a 24% target share in Houston and posted a TPRR of 24.5%, both meeting or slightly exceeding Betz’s suggested minimum thresholds. His role as a versatile route runner, capable of lining up both on the perimeter and in the slot, further supports his recovery outlook. In 2024, Diggs ran routes from the slot on 43% of snaps, a notable increase from 27% during his Buffalo tenure. This shift to slot usage aligns with Betz’s findings that slot receivers tend to recover better, as they depend more on route precision than straight-line speed.

Progress in Rehabilitation and Recovery Timeline

Diggs underwent ACL surgery in mid-November 2024, roughly 8.5 months ago, placing him slightly short of the ideal 10-month recovery benchmark. Reports and footage from off-season training activities indicate he is working at near full speed, running routes and cutting effectively. While he is expected to begin training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, the optimism around his timeline suggests he could be ready for Week 1 or shortly thereafter.

“I’m much more bullish on Diggs’ chances of returning to 100% this year given that Diggs’ injury was an isolated ACL tear. Generally speaking, these are easier to come back from and carry a more predictable recovery.” —Matthew Betz, Injury Expert

Historical examples of receivers returning from serious injuries later in their careers underscore this optimism. Jordy Nelson produced 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns after an ACL tear at age 30, while Julian Edelman remained a high-value PPR option at 31. Steve Smith Sr. rebounded from a broken leg to lead the league in multiple receiving categories, proving that age and injury do not always limit elite talent’s ability to perform.

New England’s Offense Offers a Spotlight Role

Stefon Diggs joins a Patriots offense in clear need of impact playmakers, with the team’s wide receiver group having ranked last in fantasy points per game in 2024. Signing a three-year, $25 million guaranteed contract underscores New England’s commitment to making Diggs a centerpiece. At 31, stepping in as WR1 alongside second-year quarterback Drake Maye, Diggs has an opportunity to command a substantial target share.

Maye’s conservative air yards per attempt (aDOT) ranking near the bottom of the league hint at a system favoring accuracy and shorter routes, aligned well with Diggs’ precision route-running skills. The offensive line, bolstered by veteran additions like right tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury, aims to provide improved protection and create a more effective offense.

The rest of the receiver room is young and largely unproven, featuring players like Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, Ja’Lynn Polk, Kyle Williams, and Demario Douglas. Tight end Hunter Henry led the team in targets last year, revealing a void among receiver threats that Diggs is expected to fill. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson also contributes as a receiving option, but the team’s design clearly elevates Diggs to a leading role as he returns to full health.

weighing the Fantasy Risks and Rewards

While Stefon Diggs’ ACL injury and age raise legitimate concerns, multiple factors point toward a feasible fantasy comeback. He meets the crucial recovery markers laid out by experts, shows encouraging rehab indicators, and benefits from a new environment geared toward his skill set. His ADP in the mid-forties offers significant value for a player with his track record.

Expectations should be realistic for a potential slow start, but a return to form and productivity by midseason is plausible. Fantasy managers willing to invest a late-round pick and stash him on injury reserve spots stand to gain from his expected second-half surge. Diggs’ presence in New England provides a rare chance for a proven receiver to reignite his fantasy value after a tough injury year, making this an opportune time to reconsider the Stefon Diggs fantasy comeback chance.

Our Reader’s Queries

Q. Did Stefon Diggs date Cardi B?

A. Cardi and Stefon, who first got involved in October, made their relationship public in May. They were seen together at Madison Square Garden, sitting courtside during a Knicks game against the Boston Celtics. This appearance was three months after they spent Valentine’s Day with each other.

Q. Are Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs still friends?

A. “I have a lot of appreciation for Diggs. I continue to feel the same way,” Allen stated. “The contributions he made to my career and in a Buffalo Bill uniform are unforgettable to me.” The Bills quarterback expects to greet Diggs during pregame warmups.