Dustin Poirier’s Final UFC Fight: Can He Secure a Legendary Win Over Max Holloway at UFC 318?

July 19, 2025

On Saturday night at UFC 318 in New Orleans, Dustin Poirier will step into the Octagon for what promises to be his final UFC fight, facing Max Holloway for the coveted BMF championship. Known as one of the sport’s most beloved competitors, Poirier aims to close his career on a high note in front of his home crowd, fueling anticipation around this pivotal lightweight clash.

Although Poirier has defeated Holloway twice in the past, his career has lacked a full UFC title reign, settling instead for an interim lightweight championship won against Holloway in 2019. In contrast, Holloway has enjoyed more championship success and recently claimed the BMF belt from Justin Gaethje at UFC 300. Their upcoming bout marks the third meeting between these warriors, carrying significant symbolic weight as it represents a crowning moment in both of their legacies.

Detailed UFC 318 Fight Card and Betting Odds

Alongside the main event, UFC 318 features a stacked lineup with competitive matchups spanning several weight classes. The co-main event spotlights a middleweight battle between Roman Kopylov and Paulo Costa, while the welterweight division showcases Kevin Holland squaring off against Daniel Rodriguez. Featherweight prospect Patricio Pitbull, a former two-division Bellator champion, pursues his first UFC win against Dan Ige.

Max Holloway (c) -130 vs. Dustin Poirier +110, lightweights, “BMF” title
Roman Kopylov -240 vs. Paulo Costa +200, middleweights
Kevin Holland -450 vs. Daniel Rodriguez, welterweights
Dan Ige -210 vs. Patricio Pitbull +175, featherweights
Daniel Zellhuber -550 vs. Michael Johnson +400, lightweights
Vinicius Oliveira -165 vs. Kyler Phillips +140, bantamweights
Brendan Allen -205 vs. Marvin Vettori +170, middleweights
Francisco Prado -140 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +120, welterweights
Ateba Gautier -550 vs. Robert Valentin +400, middleweights
Islam Dulatov -600 vs. Adam Fugitt +430, welterweights
Jimmy Crute -280 vs. Marcin Prachnio +230, light heavyweights
Ryan Spann -220 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +180, light heavyweights
Brunno Ferreira -700 vs. Jackson McVey +500, middleweights
Carli Judice -300 vs. Nicolle Caliari +240, women’s flyweights

This diverse card highlights not only established stars but also rising contenders aiming to make their mark, creating a dynamic mix of styles and experience levels anticipated to deliver an electrifying night of fights.

Expert Predictions for the Main Event Showdown

A group of combat sports experts including Brent Brookhouse, Brian Campbell, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile, and Brandon Wise have weighed in with their analyses and predictions for the key matchups on the UFC 318 main card.

Assessing the Poirier vs. Holloway Trilogy and Final Bout

Brian Campbell recognizes the emotional and physical stakes for the 36-year-old Poirier, who is motivated to conclude his career with a memorable victory in Louisiana. Despite entering as a slight underdog, Poirier’s physical advantages and punching power, which helped him secure their interim title bout in 2019, remain critical factors. Fighting in front of a supportive home crowd and with prior wins over Holloway, Poirier appears prepared both physically and mentally to make the most of this opportunity, especially as Holloway faces this fight fresh off the first knockout loss of his career.

Brent Brookhouse expresses a cautious hope for Poirier’s triumphant exit but points to recent performances against Justin Gaethje as an indicator of current form. He notes that Holloway not only outpaced Gaethje in their encounter but also put on a legendary performance by daring Gaethje to engage, showcasing his resilience and tactical excellence. Brookhouse believes Holloway’s combination of pace and precision positions him well to claim a victory over Poirier this time around.

Shakiel Mahjouri highlights Holloway’s evolution since their last meetings, emphasizing the fighter‘s expanded frame and adaptation to the lightweight division without sacrificing speed or movement. He credits Topuria’s power for Holloway’s knockout loss rather than any decline in Holloway’s physical condition. Mahjouri considers it plausible for Poirier to sweep the trilogy but leans slightly toward Holloway being sharper and more prepared in the present moment.

Analyzing the Middleweight Clash: Costa vs. Kopylov

Brian Campbell points to Paulo Costa’s inconsistent streak since his 2020 loss to Israel Adesanya but stresses that Costa remains dangerous despite recent setbacks. The key issue has been Costa’s tendency to abandon strategic caution in favor of high-risk attacks, which has contributed to multiple decision losses. With Kopylov riding a six-win streak in seven fights, the matchup is poised as a test between Costa’s experience and Kopylov’s rising momentum. Campbell also notes Costa’s motivation, fueled by his ongoing disputes outside the cage, particularly involving Khamzat Chimaev, adding a psychological edge heading into the fight.

Brent Brookhouse assesses Kopylov’s competition level during his winning streak as not especially elite, implying that Costa, with more top-level experience, presents a serious challenge. He stresses that Costa must fight smart and avoid reckless exchanges to capitalize on his strengths and secure a much-needed victory.

Shakiel Mahjouri sees Kopylov’s improvements in grappling as a decisive factor, crediting his development after a loss to Anthony Hernandez. While reaffirming Costa’s striking talent, Mahjouri questions Costa’s consistency and shares that Kopylov’s youth and recent progress make him the favorite in this fight.

Previewing the Welterweight Bout: Holland vs. Rodriguez

Brian Campbell notes that Kevin Holland is maintaining a grueling schedule with plans for seven fights this year, reminiscent of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone’s relentless fight frequency. Holland has embraced the demands despite some questionable decisions to accept fights on short notice, which have occasionally hindered his momentum as a top contender. Currently on a two-fight win streak and competing consistently at welterweight, Holland remains a formidable opponent. Daniel Rodriguez, though also coming off two wins, is older and not as fresh. Campbell anticipates an exciting, close contest with a stoppage victory for Holland possible.

Shakiel Mahjouri agrees, pointing out Holland’s renewed commitment to the welterweight division and his impressive recent wins. He considers Rodriguez skilled but lacking the versatility needed to counter Holland’s varied approach, predicting a victory for Holland via knockout or submission.

The Impact of UFC 318 and What’s Next for Poirier and Holloway

Dustin Poirier’s final UFC fight symbolically represents more than just a conclusion; it is a defining moment where legacy and ambition collide before a passionate home crowd. Securing a third win over Max Holloway for the BMF title would elevate Poirier’s standing and provide a remarkable end to a decorated career. For Holloway, another victory would further cement his place among the sport’s elite, proving his transition to lightweight is complete despite setbacks.

This event carries significant implications not only for the fighters involved but also for the broader lightweight division hierarchy, potentially shaping future title opportunities and rivalries. Fans and analysts alike await the decisive outcome, aware that the ramifications will resonate throughout the UFC landscape. With a deep fight card filled with compelling bouts, UFC 318 promises an intense night that will be remembered as a landmark moment in MMA history.