Seth Lugo has been a pivotal figure for the Kansas City Royals, significantly improving the team’s performance since his arrival. As the Royals face the possibility of losing him after this season, his trade potential has become a major point of discussion among baseball insiders looking at what teams might pursue him and the prospects Kansas City could receive in return.
Lugo’s impact on the Royals has been profound. Before he joined, the team recorded only 56 wins in a season, but the very next year, he helped lead Kansas City to 86 wins, bringing credibility to their pitching staff and finishing second in the Cy Young Award voting behind Tarik Skubal. Currently, Lugo continues to perform at an elite level with a 2.94 ERA and 93 strikeouts over 107 innings pitched. With fellow starter Cole Ragan sidelined for much of the year, Lugo has been the Royals’ most dependable pitcher.
Despite their appreciation for Lugo, the Royals face uncertainty about re-signing him due to his imminent contract expiration. Lugo holds a player option for $15 million in 2026, but he could opt for free agency, where he would likely command a higher salary. This reality pressures the Royals to consider trading him before the deadline to avoid losing him without compensation. The team’s priority in return would be young position players under team control, particularly outfielders. So, what might a potential trade involving Seth Lugo look like, and which teams could be the strongest candidates to acquire him?
Assessing the Value of Seth Lugo in a Potential Trade
To gauge what the Royals might expect in exchange for Lugo, comparisons to recent trades involving comparable pitchers are useful. One relevant example is last year’s deadline deal that sent Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers. At the time, Flaherty posted a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and was 28 years old, younger than Lugo, who is 35. The Tigers received two top prospects from the Dodgers in return, including Thayron Liranzo, their now fifth-ranked prospect, and Trey Sweeney, who has already reached the majors.
Given Lugo’s reputation as arguably the best starting pitcher available for trade, despite his age, the Royals would be negotiating from a strong position. However, trading Lugo may signal that the Royals are shifting focus away from competing in 2025, so they will likely seek a substantial haul of top-tier prospects to justify moving on from their ace.
Leading Contenders for Lugo and Their Trade Offerings
Chicago Cubs: A Prime Destination with Attractive Prospects
The Chicago Cubs stand out as a top landing spot for Lugo due to their need for starting pitching and their wealth of promising prospects. While their rotation has held up this season, adding a veteran like Lugo could bolster their chances in a competitive division. The Cubs are supported by a passionate fan base eager to see the team return to postseason play.
The Royals’ ideal return from the Cubs would include prospects like outfielders Owen Cassie and Kevin Alcantara. Cassie, their No. 1 prospect, is thriving in Triple-A with a strong .278/.386/.575 slash line, while Alcantara is their No. 4 prospect, demonstrating potential with a .267/.348/.462 performance at the same level. Both offer powerful offensive upside and would significantly enhance the Royals’ roster.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Bolstering a Rotation Hampered by Injuries
The Dodgers have been heavily impacted by injuries to key pitchers including Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki, using the mantra,
“You can never have enough pitching,”
to guide their deadline strategies. This makes Lugo a prime target to reinforce their rotation as they chase a strong National League showing.
While the Dodgers’ farm system boasts many hitting prospects, few are ready to contribute at the major league level soon. Outfielder Mike Sirota, their No. 6 prospect, is the most intriguing but remains at High-A with an estimated big-league arrival in 2027. Alex Freeland, their No. 3 prospect, is closer to MLB-ready but is an infielder, which limits his fit for Kansas City’s outfield needs.
New York Mets: Returning to a Familiar Ace for Depth and Reliability
The Mets have shown interest in acquiring Lugo, who pitched for them from 2017 through 2022. While their starting rotation currently ranks fifth in ERA, they are notably low in innings pitched and WHIP, suggesting a depth issue. The recent return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea reduces immediate pressure, but Lugo’s ability to provide innings and stability remains valuable for a playoff contender.
The Mets can offer several top prospects including Shortstop/Outfielder Jett Williams, their highest-ranked prospect, slashing .291/.399/.495 with eight home runs in Double-A, and outfielders Carson Benge, Ryan Clifford, and Drew Gilbert, all exhibiting strong offensive numbers and youth. These prospects could interest the Royals as young position players with upside.
Toronto Blue Jays: Enhancing a Struggling Rotation Amidst Division Pressure
The Blue Jays lead their division but face pressure from the Yankees, who trail by just three games. Their rotation ranks 25th in ERA at 4.53, and though the return of Max Scherzer from the injured list is a boost, they may still seek pitching upgrades to maintain their lead.
Toronto’s farm system is not as rich in top-level prospects as others, but players like Orelvis Martinez, a 2B/3B prospect with MLB experience, and shortstop Josh Kasevich could be part of a trade package. However, both come with concerns: Martinez served an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing substances, and Kasevich has missed time due to injury, currently rehabbing at Single-A.
San Francisco Giants: Seeking Pitching Stability in a Tight Wild Card Race
The Giants have a 52-47 record and sit 1.5 games behind the final National League Wild Card spot. Their rotation has struggled, highlighted by recent disappointing performances from Justin Verlander, increasing the need for reliable arms alongside Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
The Giants possess several promising prospects but only Bryce Eldridge, their top first-baseman prospect, ranks inside the top 100 overall. They also have left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, who showcases a highly effective changeup but was penalized for performance-enhancing drug use in college. Additional prospects like outfielders Dakota Jordan and Bo Davidson provide solid minor league production but are a few years away from contributing at the major league level.
Potential Impact of a Seth Lugo Trade on the Royals’ Future
Moving Seth Lugo would mark a turning point for the Royals, effectively signaling a rebuild as they pivot toward developing young talent and enhancing their lineup with controlled, high-upside position players. Given Lugo’s consistent ability to perform despite his age, the caliber of prospects Kansas City can demand in return is substantial. Targeting dynamic outfielders and versatile young players aligns with the Royals’ strategic needs, potentially positioning them for sustained future success.
The upcoming trade deadline will be critical for Kansas City. Opting to trade Lugo could secure a valuable prospect haul, but it also risks short-term competitiveness. Meanwhile, the teams actively pursuing his services will evaluate their chances to improve pitching depth for a playoff push and the kind of prospect packages they are willing to cost for his established ability.