EAGAN, Minn. — As the Minnesota Vikings prepare for the 2025 season, all eyes are on rookie J.J. McCarthy and his potential to lead the team as quarterback under head coach Kevin O’Connell. The question lingering is whether O’Connell, named <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/football/nfl/”>NFL Coach of the Year, can replicate his history of elevating quarterbacks to success with a player who has yet to start an NFL game. McCarthy’s Vikings quarterback potential is at the heart of this intense build-up as the team and fans anticipate his first snaps at Soldier Field this September.
Known for maximizing quarterback talent, O’Connell has seen veterans such as Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins achieve career-best performances in Minnesota, but guiding a rookie like McCarthy is an uncharted endeavor. Understanding O’Connell’s track record with quarterbacks over the past seven seasons provides valuable context for what lies ahead in 2025.
Historical Success of Kevin O’Connell’s Starting Quarterbacks
Examining the Week 1 starting quarterbacks under O’Connell reveals a pattern of solid performances and playoff qualifications that could bode well for McCarthy’s future. Since 2018, O’Connell has worked with seven different season-opening quarterbacks, leading them to a combined 59-33 record across three teams: Washington, Los Angeles Rams, and the Minnesota Vikings.
Key quarterbacks and their Week 1 seasons under O’Connell include:
- Sam Darnold (2024 Vikings) – 14 wins, 3 losses, 102.5 passer rating
- Kirk Cousins (2023 Vikings) – 103.8 passer rating
- Kirk Cousins (2022 Vikings) – 13 wins, 4 losses, 92.5 passer rating
- Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams) – 12 wins, 5 losses, 102.9 passer rating
- Jared Goff (2020 Rams) – 90.0 passer rating
- Case Keenum (2019 Washington) – 91.3 passer rating
- Alex Smith (2018 Washington) – 85.7 passer rating
While some of these quarterbacks, including Smith in 2018, Keenum in 2019, and Cousins in 2023, played fewer than 10 games due to injury or other setbacks, the overall trends show that O’Connell’s teams reached the playoffs 57% of the time during his spells as a passing game coordinator, offensive coordinator, or head coach. This record underscores his ability to guide quarterbacks to win games, though it doesn’t guarantee postseason triumphs or that McCarthy will meet those same standards.
Strengths of the Vikings’ Current Roster Supporting McCarthy
Success in football depends on more than just the quarterback and head coach; the Vikings enter 2025 with a strong supporting cast. The 2024 squad won 14 games and flirted with the <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/football/nfl/nfc/”>NFC’s top playoff seed despite relying on a journeyman quarterback and missing key playmakers like Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson early in the season. This demonstrates the team’s depth in skill positions, particularly with wide receiver Justin Jefferson anchoring the offense, and a defense coordinated by Brian Flores known for its diverse and complex schemes.
Additionally, Minnesota bolstered its running game with the signing of Jordan Mason to complement Aaron Jones, providing McCarthy with a balanced offensive attack that could reduce pressure on a rookie quarterback adapting to the NFL’s speed and complexity.
How O’Connell Has Elevated His Quarterbacks’ Performances
Beyond win-loss records, O’Connell’s influence is evident in the individual progress of several quarterbacks under his guidance. Many have enjoyed career-best seasons or surpassed expectations while working with him:
- Alex Smith provided stability and ball control, helping Washington achieve a surprising 5-2 start in 2018 before a severe injury ended the season.
- Case Keenum began 2019 with an impressive performance, delivering five touchdowns and zero interceptions during two shootouts before being replaced.
- Matthew Stafford’s 2021 debut with the Rams saw him enter MVP discussions and culminated in a Super Bowl victory, with O’Connell playing a key role as Sean McVay’s right-hand coach.
- Kirk Cousins had a breakout 13-win season in 2022, elevated by tailored play-action and pre-snap motion schemes, before injury struck in 2023.
- Sam Darnold showed MVP-level composure across much of 2024, significantly boosting his career status during his time in Minnesota before moving on to the Seahawks.
O’Connell’s approach is to emphasize each quarterback’s strengths: Stafford’s aggressive deep passes, Darnold’s newfound poise under pressure, and Cousins’ precision-oriented passing attack. The exception is Jared Goff, who struggled in 2020 under O’Connell’s system, coinciding with coaching challenges and a transition that preceded Stafford’s arrival. This indicates that while O’Connell’s system often elevates quarterbacks, success is never guaranteed and requires the right fit.
Unique Challenges and Opportunities for J.J. McCarthy in 2025
J.J. McCarthy faces a unique situation, as he will be the first quarterback to start a season under O’Connell while making his NFL debut. All previous starters had some professional playing experience before taking an opening snap with him as coach. McCarthy spent 2024 observing, learning, and participating in preseason games before a knee surgery sidelined him, giving him the advantage of a full offseason to absorb the playbook without game pressure.
O’Connell is expected to tailor the offense around McCarthy’s style, likely favoring a more conservative approach than that used with a high-risk, high-reward passer like Darnold. This adaptation is designed to protect the rookie while maximizing the offensive weapons around him. Jordan Mason’s addition alongside Aaron Jones is part of strengthening support for McCarthy’s transition to a full-time starter.
What Betting Markets Say About McCarthy’s Potential Impact
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, McCarthy’s odds for the 2025 season reflect a mixture of hope and uncertainty. He is listed at +850 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, suggesting confidence in his ability to rebound from injury and perform well. A bet on him throwing over 4,000 passing yards is at +180, indicating that projections see him as a capable starter. Conversely, the risk of him leading the league in interceptions carries longer odds at +1600, highlighting the potential for rookie mistakes.
What Lies Ahead for McCarthy and the Vikings
When McCarthy takes the field under Monday Night Football lights on September 8, wearing No. 9 for the Vikings, he will carry not only the weight of his own aspirations but also the reputation of a coach known for quarterback development. O’Connell’s optimism and carefully crafted offense may help ease initial doubts surrounding McCarthy’s readiness, yet the true test will come as he faces real pass rushers, challenging defenses, and a demanding schedule.
Success in 2025 will depend on McCarthy’s ability to translate practice reps and game planning into consistent execution and leadership, supported by a skilled roster and a coach with experience turning talented quarterbacks into winners. The Vikings, their fans, and NFL observers remain anxious but hopeful that McCarthy’s potential will surf the wave of O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly system towards a sustained winning formula next season.