The Kansas City Royals are confronting a bleak outlook for retaining starting pitcher Seth Lugo as the trade deadline nears. Following a disappointing weekend where the Royals lost two out of three games to the Miami Marlins, the team now stands at 48-52 and 5 1/2 games behind a playoff spot in the American League, making Lugo’s potential move increasingly likely.
With nine games remaining before the trade deadline, Lugo remains the most prominent player potentially on the market, especially after taking the loss in the series opener on Friday. If Kansas City decides to rebuild or sell assets, Lugo would likely become the biggest name available to suitors seeking a reliable starter.
High Trade Probability and Target Teams for Seth Lugo
ESPN analysts Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have projected an 80 percent chance that Lugo will be traded, identifying five teams as top candidates for acquiring the right-hander. These teams include the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, and Los Angeles Dodgers, all of whom are positioned as contenders or in a win-now mode that could benefit from Lugo’s consistency.
Lugo has posted mid-3.00s or lower ERAs for five seasons despite having below-average fastball velocity and good-not-great strikeout rates. His ability to strand runners and limit hard contact comes in part due to his nine different pitches,
—Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel, ESPN analysts
With a Nathan Eovaldi-type contract awaiting Lugo in free agency, Kansas City could opt to move him, especially if Cole Ragans‘ injured shoulder doesn’t improve. Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers.
—Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel, ESPN analysts
Seth Lugo’s Value and Implications for the Royals
Lugo holds a 2.98 ERA in 51 starts with the Royals and finished as the runner-up in last season’s American League Cy Young Award voting. His steady performance and ability to consistently limit opposing runners make him a valuable asset for teams vying for postseason success, despite his upcoming free agency status.
The Royals could leverage Lugo’s desirability to negotiate a substantial return from interested teams. With the Dodgers focused on immediate contention, the Cubs aiming to capitalize on contracts like Kyle Tucker’s expiring deal, and other suitors also pushing for playoff positioning, Kansas City may find significant trade value.
The decision on Lugo will influence not only the Royals’ direction for the remainder of the season but also shape the strategies of several major MLB teams preparing to make key moves before the trade deadline.