Alex Palou, driving for Chip Ganassi Racing, delivered a polished performance during the Toronto IndyCar race, starting near the front and leading the majority of the laps. However, a series of cautions and their timing prevented him from capitalizing, resulting in a 12th-place finish at Exhibition Place—the worst outcome for him in a clean race since his 12th place at Portland International Raceway in 2022.

Coming into the weekend as the reigning two-time series champion with a substantial 129-point advantage over Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward, Palou aimed to extend that lead to 162 points after the upcoming Laguna Seca race. Achieving this would have allowed him to clinch his fourth IndyCar title with three races left on the calendar. Instead, O’Ward secured the victory and trimmed Palou’s lead to 99 points by outperforming him at a track traditionally challenging for the challenger.

Why Palou could not secure the championship at Laguna Seca

In IndyCar, a maximum of 54 points is available to a driver each race weekend: 50 for a win, plus one point for leading a lap, two for leading the most laps, and one point for pole position. Drivers are assured of at least five points simply by starting the race. Palou currently holds the crucial wins tiebreaker over O’Ward, leading seven wins to two, which strengthens his championship position.

To wrap up the title before the final three events at Portland International Raceway, Milwaukee Mile, and Nashville Superspeedway, Palou needed a 162-point advantage post-Laguna Seca. While not yet out of reach, the gap narrowed to 99 points. Assuming participation in all remaining races, Palou would still require at least a 147-point cushion after Laguna Seca to guarantee the championship, but unforeseen events in recent races demonstrate that such certainty is difficult.

With four races remaining and 216 points still available, O’Ward faces a significant challenge overcoming this deficit. Some observers downplaying the gap by calling it “only” 99 points are overlooking how substantial that margin truly is in IndyCar’s competitive environment. Over his best recent four-race streak, O’Ward won twice but still outscored Palou by just 12 points, demonstrating how difficult it is to consistently outperform the champion.

Assessing the reality behind the points gap between Palou and O’Ward

While O’Ward has enjoyed victories at Milwaukee and a second-place finish at Nashville in previous seasons, Palou boasts superior records at Laguna Seca and Portland, having won twice at the former and secured a win plus a second place at the latter last year. This historical performance underlines Palou’s strengths at tracks where O’Ward aims to reduce the deficit.

Zak Brown has expressed belief in O’Ward’s capacity for an improbable comeback, but the numbers indicate that Palou remains firmly in control. A 99-point swing against Palou over any extended period is virtually unprecedented since he joined Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021, including times marked by multiple race retirements. Indeed, his largest four-race point loss to any competitor was 79 points back in 2022.

Even when excluding the enhanced double points format of the Indy 500, Palou’s performances across consecutive races remain among the highest in the series. For instance, from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race to Road America last season, he earned 80 points while Marcus Ericsson scored 159, a record, further illustrating Palou’s consistent competitiveness. Additionally, his resilience was evident during back-to-back DNFs at the Indy road course and Gateway in 2021, as no rival outpaced him by more than 76 points in any of the associated four-race spans.

This endurance and steadiness highlight why the championship battle remains in Palou’s favor. As one commentator remarked,

“If Brown really does believe in miracles, maybe he’ll try to sign Palou for a third time.”

—Anonymous Analyst

What to expect moving forward in the IndyCar championship race

The next pivotal event is the Java House Grand Prix of Monterey at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca, with live coverage scheduled on Fox this Sunday, July 27, at 3:00 p.m. ET. This race will be crucial in determining whether Palou can expand his lead sufficiently to put the championship out of reach or if O’Ward will continue making strides toward challenging for the title.

With a total of 216 points still up for grabs across the remaining four races, the contest remains open but heavily favors Palou given his past performances and consistency. His experience, particularly at Laguna Seca and Portland, will be an asset as he attempts to close out the season successfully.

Despite the recent setback in Toronto and modest reduction in his points lead, the pressure on Alex Palou remains measured when considering the data and circumstances surrounding his title chase. The coming races will reveal whether the reigning champion can maintain his advantage or if O’Ward’s persistent optimism will be rewarded with a turnaround in fortunes.