Tigers outfielder Riley Greene stands out as one of the top choices for <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/baseball/mlb/”>MLB home run picks on Tuesday, July 22, especially with ace pitcher Paul Skenes no longer scheduled to face him. After struggling against Skenes on Monday, Greene’s recent power surge and favorable matchup have made him a key candidate for a home run in MLB contests on Tuesday. Fans and bettors look to leverage the latest odds and player prop bets as the season continues to heat up.
Greene’s current MLB home run odds at sportsbooks like BetMGM list him at +500, reflecting strong value in home run parlays and individual prop bets. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates games 10,000 times each, backs Greene along with other promising players for Tuesday’s slate. The model has had a successful run this season, generating winning parlays with lucrative payouts for users who follow its guidance.
Riley Greene’s Increasing Power and Favorable Matchup
At 24 years old, Riley Greene is off to a career-best season with 25 home runs through just 100 games, showing marked improvement each year in his young MLB career. Greene hit home runs in consecutive games leading into the All-Star break and launched another early in the second half, highlighting his current hot streak. His development into a potent power hitter has made him a strong option for bettors targeting home run props this week.
Greene is usually a solid play when facing a right-handed pitcher, and Mitch Keller has significantly worse splits against left-handed batters,
said Jacob Fetner, a SportsLine data analyst.
Lefties have a .731 OPS against Keller, compared to just .554 for righties. Despite being overmatched by Paul Skenes yesterday, Greene is still hitting .304 this season, with 23 of his 25 home runs coming against right-handed pitchers.
Greene’s production against right-handed pitching and his strong batting average make him a compelling pick against the Pirates’ Mitch Keller, who has shown trouble handling left-handed hitters. This matchup dynamic boosts Greene’s chances for another home run and justifies his favorable +500 odds at BetMGM and similar odds at other sportsbooks.
Jo Adell’s Hard-Hitting Potential Against the Mets
Jo Adell of the Angels also ranks high among home run candidates on Tuesday with +425 odds. The 26-year-old has two homers in his last four games, showing a powerful swing capable of long-distance hits. Advanced metrics reinforce this, with Adell posting an average bat speed better than 99% of MLB players, a barrel percentage ranking above 95%, and a hard-hit rate that outpaces 84% of all hitters.
Adell faces Mets starter Frankie Montas, coming off injury but not showcasing a high strikeout rate, which increases Adell’s chances to connect effectively with pitches. Montas, despite some inconsistency and allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings since mid-2022, remains a somewhat favorable matchup for a hitter of Adell’s profile.
Adell is pretty much a two-true-outcome player at this point—he hits the ball hard or he strikes out,
Fetner commented.
We think there’s a good chance he connects against Frankie Montas, who has been inconsistent since returning from injury. Montas has allowed 1.5 HR/9 innings since the second half of the 2022 season when he was traded to the Yankees.
This combination of Adell’s hard-hitting ability and Montas’s vulnerability to home runs creates an appealing opportunity for bettors looking for a high-upside player prop. Bet365 offers +425 odds on Adell to homer Tuesday, with promotional bonuses available for new users placing early bets.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Targets Power Resurgence with Yankees
New York infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 17 home runs in 69 games this season, resulting in nearly one homer every four games—the best rate of his five MLB seasons. Although currently in an eight-game homer drought, his recent productivity, including seven home runs in June, suggests he could rebound soon.
Chisholm faces a challenging pitcher in Max Scherzer, a future Hall-of-Famer who is 40 years old and managing injuries. Scherzer’s age and physical condition could open chances for hitters like Chisholm, who performs well against right-handed pitchers. The matchup also benefits from Chisholm’s strong OPS of .935 and the fact that nearly all his home runs have come against righties this season.
Jazz is just 2-for-8 in his career against Max Scherzer, but those two hits were a home run and a triple,
explained Fetner.
While he didn’t perform well in the HR Derby, Jazz remains a solid threat in game action — especially against right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .935 OPS and 16 of his 17 home runs. Scherzer is a future Hall-of-Famer, but he’s a 40-year-old pitcher dealing with injuries.
Chisholm’s current +375 odds at BetMGM mark him as a valuable addition to any home run parlay, particularly alongside Greene and Adell, potentially delivering large payouts for skilled bettors.
Where to Place Your MLB Home Run Prop Bets on Tuesday
Tuesday’s MLB home run props are broadly available across major sportsbook platforms, each offering varied promotions to attract new users and enhance betting value. Players interested in wagering on these picks can consider the following sites:
Caesars: Bet $1 and double your winnings on the next 10 bets using code CBSDYW.
BetMGM: Up to $1,500 in bonus bets returned if your first wager loses, using code CBSSPORTS.
FanDuel: Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets if your initial bet wins; no promo code required.
DraftKings: Bet $5, receive $150 in bonus bets instantly; no code needed.
Fanatics: Bet and earn up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets; no code required.
bet365: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets whether you win or lose, redeemable with code CBSBET365.
Additional MLB Player Prop Picks and Projections
Besides the highlighted home run candidates, SportsLine offers comprehensive daily projections across all MLB player props, helping bettors identify value and maximize potential returns. Their computer model and data scientists continually update predictions based on current trends and matchup data to support informed betting decisions throughout the day.
With the MLB season in full swing and high volatility in pitcher and batter performances, analyzing these home run odds, especially for players like Riley Greene, Jo Adell, and Jazz Chisholm Jr., can provide bettors with strategic advantages. Careful consideration of matchups, player trends, and odds promotions is essential for anyone aiming to capitalize on July 22’s games.