The Indiana Fever will compete against the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday without their star guard Caitlin Clark, who remains sidelined with a groin injury sustained before the All-Star break. Clark’s absence continues to affect the Fever as they enter this matchup following two consecutive losses to the reigning champion New York Liberty. Meanwhile, the Aces are riding a three-game winning streak, and both teams are positioned to secure playoff spots ahead of this game.
Experts Offer Betting Insights Amid Clark’s Absence
WNBA betting enthusiasts and player prop followers are closely watching expert predictions for this game, especially with the spotlight on the Caitlin Clark WNBA injury impact on the Fever’s performance. Analysts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai provide their top picks based on advanced statistical models and basketball analytics. Barzilai, a Ph.D. graduate from Stanford and former Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers, co-founded HerHoopStats.com, which is known for its data-driven approach to women’s basketball. Wetzel serves as the lead betting writer for the site, combining mathematical analysis with a deep understanding of the women’s game.
The duo’s previous predictions have been notable for their accuracy, as demonstrated by their records: 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) in the 2024 WNBA season, 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) in the 2024-25 NCAA season, and 238-185-1 (+29.5 units) during the 2023 WNBA season.
Forecasting the Aces vs. Fever Spread and Rebound Plays
For Thursday’s matchup, Wetzel and Barzilai suggest a spread pick favoring the Fever at +2, as well as a prop bet on Sophie Cunningham to record fewer than 4.5 rebounds.
Despite dropping the last two games, the Fever have shown resilience. Wetzel explains the decision to back the Fever:
“I may be stubborn to take the Fever after losing two straight spread picks on them. But New York shot over 50% from deep in each of those games, and in each game the shooting variance was responsible for the gap between the spread and the final margin.”
He notes that even with Clark sidelined, the Fever have outperformed the spread by an average of 2.5 points per game across 12 games. This suggests that sportsbooks may overestimate Clark’s individual impact given her high profile.
With the game expected to be tightly contested, Wetzel encourages bettors to take advantage of the point spread offering for the Fever as the matchup approaches a pick’em scenario.
Analysis on Sophie Cunningham’s Rebounding Trends
Regarding player props, the experts focus on Cunningham’s rebounding performance. Although her minutes have increased in Clark’s absence, her rebounding efficiency has ironically declined. Barzilai’s data supports the prediction that Cunningham will fall under 4.5 rebounds once again. He states:
“Cunningham has only cleared this line in seven of her 20 games this season, and she’s averaging 4.1 rebounds per game. The biggest reason we’re getting this line without any extra juice is that her minutes have been up lately without Clark in the lineup.”
Further supporting this, Cunningham has gone under this rebound threshold in eight of the nine games missed by Clark.
Implications of Clark’s Injury on Fever’s Playoff Outlook
The ongoing absence of Caitlin Clark significantly shapes the Fever’s current strategies and betting outlook. While Clark’s presence is widely regarded as pivotal, the Fever’s ability to keep games close even without her could influence how sportsbooks and bettors evaluate future contests. For the upcoming game against the Las Vegas Aces, both teams’ strong positioning in the playoff picture adds urgency, making this matchup crucial for momentum.
As the season advances, observers will be closely monitoring how the Fever adjust their roster dynamics without Clark and how that affects their competitiveness in high-stakes games. The expertise of analysts like Barzilai and Wetzel highlights the nuanced understanding of player impact beyond headline stars, providing valuable perspectives for fans and bettors alike.