Jackson Merrill, the San Diego Padres outfielder, has faced considerable difficulty during his Jackson Merrill sophomore season struggles as injuries and pitchers’ adaptations have disrupted his performance. Following a standout rookie campaign in 2023 where he achieved a .292/.326/.500 slash line along with 24 homers and 90 RBIs, Merrill entered the 2024 season expected to build on that success. However, his second year has so far been marked by decreased offensive production and a battle to regain his previous form.

Merrill’s rookie achievements were notable not only for his impressive statistics but also for his swift transition from AA to the Padres’ major league roster, alongside a position change from shortstop to center field. His impact was so significant that his Rookie of the Year hopes were only outshined by Paul Skenes. Despite a low 4.9% walk rate last year, Merrill posted the 12th-highest batting average among qualified hitters, earning him an early contract extension guaranteeing him a minimum of $135 million through 2034.

Offensive Decline and Shifts in Performance Metrics in 2024

By the All-Star break of the 2024 season, Merrill’s stats reflected a clear downturn: a .263/.328/.416 slash line across 272 plate appearances, with his weighted on-base average (wOBA) dropping to .324, nearly 30 points below the rookie season. Interestingly, his walk rate nearly doubled to 8.5%, approaching league average, yet his batting average fell by about 30 points, and slugging declined by roughly 85 points.

This mixed performance suggested deeper underlying issues, prompting a detailed look into how opposing pitchers and Merrill himself have adjusted during his sophomore year.

How Pitchers Have Adapted to Merrill’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Although the overall pitch type distribution remained largely unchanged from last year—with fastballs at around 57%, breaking pitches about 28-29%, and off-speed pitches near 15%—pitchers have honed their precision against Merrill. They now target the edges of the strike zone significantly more, a strategy reflected in the jump of pitches located in the plate’s shadow zone from 41.9% in 2023 to 46.6% in 2024. Correspondingly, the frequency of pitches thrown in the heart of the zone decreased from 27.5% to 23.9%.

This tactical adjustment exploits Merrill’s identified vulnerability to edge pitches, as pitchers are intent on forcing him to swing at more challenging deliveries outside his comfort zone. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in elevated pitches—those up in or above the strike zone—from 27.8% to 34.2%, as well as more pitches located away from him, increasing from 42.1% to 45.2%.

Last season’s data showed Merrill’s least productive zone was the upper third of the strike zone, where he demonstrated lower power and higher swing-and-miss rates. By pitching in this area more frequently, opponents have sought to limit his effectiveness and generate more strikeouts.

Merrill’s Aggressive Swing Approach and Its Consequences

Despite the pitchers’ refinements, Merrill’s approach at the plate has remained aggressive. His swing rate hovers around 57% of all pitches, with a 45% swing rate on first pitches—both significantly higher than league averages. Unfortunately, this aggression has led to more swings and misses, particularly on pitches located at the strike zone’s edges.

His whiff rate on pitches in the heart of the plate rose slightly from 12.5% to 13.9%, but it’s on shadow zone pitches that his strikeouts have surged. Merrill has missed on over 27% of swings against these challenging edge pitches, an 8-point increase from the prior season, contributing to a rise in his overall strikeout rate from 16.9% to 21.4%.

Correlating with these struggles, his swing decision value—a metric that evaluates the effectiveness of his choices to swing or take a pitch—dropped from 85 to 79, indicating a decline in pitch selection quality compared to league average (indexed at 100).

Changes in Merrill’s Batted Ball Patterns and Power Output

Not only has Merrill struggled with pitch selection and contact quality, but his batted ball profile has also shifted in ways that negatively affect his power numbers. His average exit velocity declined by about 1.5 mph, including a drop in fly ball exit velocity from 91.4 mph to 90.6 mph. This is partly attributed to pitchers throwing elevated pitches away from him more often, leading him to hit more fly balls to the opposite field, up from 21.6% to 26.7%.

Unfortunately, Merrill’s productivity on opposite-field fly balls has collapsed. His slugging percentage in that category is just .308, down around 90 points from last year, while his isolated power has dropped to .154. The average distance of these opposite-field fly balls has also shortened by approximately 11 feet, highlighting diminished power.

Concurrently, the ground ball rate increased substantially, rising from 36.8% in his rookie season to 43.5% so far in 2024, particularly with more pulled grounders increasing from 16.9% to 23%. While Merrill has found some success (.335 wOBA) hitting into these grounders, they often collide with hard-shifted infields, limiting base hits and extra-base opportunities.

Combined, the increases in opposite-field fly balls and pulled ground balls have resulted in a sharp decline in pulled air balls, one of the most productive batted ball types. Pulled fly balls dropped from 15.4% of his batted balls in 2023 to just 11% this season, signifying a major change in his batted ball distribution.

Impact of Injuries on Performance and Timing Difficulties

Compounding these struggles, Merrill has faced significant injury setbacks so far in 2024. A hamstring strain in April sidelined him for nearly a month, followed by a concussion in June that kept him out for another week and triggered a downturn in performance heading into the All-Star break. These interruptions have prevented Merrill from establishing a consistent rhythm and timing at the plate.

Analyzing his batted ball data by pitch type further supports this struggle with timing. He has produced more popups on fastballs and hit a larger share of breaking and off-speed pitches on the ground compared to 2023. This pattern suggests that he is either late on fastballs—resulting in weak popups and fly balls to the opposite field—or early on secondary pitches, producing grounders to his pull side.

It’s an indication of a hitter who is currently out of sync, possibly caught between adjusting to fastballs and secondary pitches simultaneously, which hinders optimal contact.

Possible Adjustments in Batting Setup and Outlook

Early in the 2024 season, Merrill appeared to alter his stance by moving farther up in the batter’s box and away from the plate compared to his rookie year. However, recent at-bats in July show him repositioning deeper and closer to the dish, more in line with his prior setup.

Though swing mechanics experts have not provided a consensus on Merrill’s adjustments, this movement within the box may be a response to discomfort or a search for better timing and pitch recognition. If he can regain better health and consistent playing time, there is reason to believe Merrill will recover his timing and reassert himself offensively.

Our Reader’s Queries

Q. What happened to Jackson Merrill?

A. Initially, Merrill was scheduled to play in Sunday’s last game against Washington. However, the team later announced he won’t play due to sickness. Up to 2025, Merrill has a batting average of .259 with a .731 OPS and only seven home runs, which is a significant drop from his rookie season.

Q. What is Jackson Merrill’s salary?

A. SAN DIEGO (AP) — Jackson Merrill, an All-Star outfielder, quickly showed his worth after signing a $135 million deal for nine years with the San Diego Padres on Wednesday morning.