The Kansas City Chiefs have maintained a culture of winning, securing two Super Bowl titles within the past three years and achieving 15 regular-season victories last season. However, beneath these accomplishments, significant issues have surfaced, particularly involving Patrick Mahomes deep passing struggles that have impacted the team’s offensive identity. Since their record-breaking 2022 season—when Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards and earned MVP honors—the Chiefs’ offense has not matched that explosive level of performance.
Decline in Mahomes’ Deep Passing Effectiveness
While statistics can sometimes be misleading, game footage clearly reveals fewer impactful deep throws in recent seasons. Between 2018 and 2022, Mahomes averaged 4.3 attempts per game on passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield, resulting in 45 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions, alongside a lofty passer rating of 112.3 on these plays. Contrastingly, in 2023 and 2024, his deep attempts dropped to three per game, yielding just four touchdowns but eight interceptions, with his deep-pass rating falling dramatically to 47.7. This decline stands out as a major reason behind the Chiefs’ waning offensive explosiveness.
Insight into the Roots of Mahomes’ Deep Passing Decline
Sports commentator Nick Wright analyzed the shift, highlighting that Mahomes’ retreat from deep passes began even during his second MVP season. According to Wright, Mahomes increasingly relied on short passes facilitated by yards after catch rather than aiming downfield. He explained,
He kind of stopped throwing deep in 2022, the year he won league MVP, because there was so much run-after-catch stuff. The 2023 it seems like gets chalked up to drops, and nobody cared anyway because they won the Super Bowl. Last year, for me, was the perfect storm of sucking in the deep passing game.
—Nick Wright, Sports Commentator
Wright’s assessment points to a combination of receiver drops and strategic conservatism contributing to the issue, which remained largely unnoticed during the Chiefs’ 2023 title run but became more apparent in the following season.
Injuries and Offensive Line Instability Compound Problems
Mahomes’ difficulties in launching deep passes were exacerbated by injuries to key wide receivers, including Rashee Rice, weakening the unit’s overall threat downfield. Adding to the problem was the offensive line’s inconsistency, with the loss of star left tackle Kingsley Suamataia and erratic performance from right tackle Jawaan Taylor creating less protection. Limited time in the pocket hindered Mahomes’ ability to let deep routes develop, forcing a more conservative and less explosive passing approach that strayed from the team’s former offensive potency.
Mahomes Acknowledges Early Season Struggles
Mahomes himself admitted to disappointing early-season play, saying,
Mahomes stated the year with some of the worst football he has played as a pro. In the first four games, he had a pick. They won the games, but it was weird.
—Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Quarterback
Despite the slow start and deep passing struggles, the Chiefs managed to win games, largely relying on a stout defense and Mahomes’ late-game leadership during crucial moments.
Team Improvements Offer Hope for Offensive Revival
The wide receiver corps has since been strengthened and now includes dynamic talent such as Hollywood Brown, Skyy Moore, Nikko Remigio, Justyn Ross, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Jason Brownlee, along with promising rookies like Jalen Royals, Elijah Badger, Jimmy Holiday, and Mac Dalena. At tight end, veteran Travis Kelce leads a talented group that also features Jake Briningstool, Geor’Quarius Spivey, Robert Tonyan, Jared Wiley, Trey Watson, and Noah Gray.
The offensive line has also seen reinforcements with free agent Jaylen Moore and rookie Josh Simmons, who offers flexibility at tackle positions. Although Suamataia and Wanya Morris return, both struggled last season. With the departure of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, Suamataia is expected to move inside to guard, potentially stabilizing the interior line.
Future Outlook Hinges on Mahomes’ Confidence in Deep Throws
With enhanced speed on the outside and upgraded protection up front, the Chiefs have assembled the components necessary to restore their deep passing threat. Ultimately, the success of their offensive renaissance depends on Mahomes’ willingness to trust his arm and take calculated risks downfield without excessive fear of turnovers. His deep passing revival will be crucial if Kansas City hopes to maintain its status as a Super Bowl contender and reclaim the aggressive offensive style that once made them nearly unbeatable.