The 2025 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix is poised to captivate as it unfolds this Sunday at the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, marking a century since the race‘s inception in 1925. As the 12th race in the 24-race F1 calendar, the event features Lando Norris leading the betting odds, intensifying excitement for the second half of the season.
Scheduled to start at 9 a.m. ET, the 44-lap race will challenge drivers around the demanding 4.352-mile, 19-turn Spa track. Despite past dominance by Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton—who collectively claimed victory in the last five Belgian Grands Prix—Norris and his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri have emerged as favorites with odds of +110 and +145, respectively.
Breakdown of Leading Favorites and Key Contenders
Norris’s pole position performance on Saturday solidified his status at the top of the 2025 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix odds, reflecting McLaren’s current competitive form. Verstappen’s recent win drought spans five races, positioning him at +600 odds, while Hamilton remains a distant longshot at +10000.
The race pace and history suggest that surprise contenders could disrupt traditional favorites. Piastri’s impressive season, highlighted by wins in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, supports his strong contention here. Meanwhile, veteran drivers such as Charles Leclerc and George Russell represent higher-odds challengers, with respective odds of +1600 and +3400.
A Statistical Edge: The Model Behind the Predictions
The projections for this Belgian GP have been formulated by Mike McClure, a daily Fantasy expert and SportsLine predictive data engineer, who employs a proprietary simulation model. This system runs 10,000 race simulations factoring track history, recent form, and racing dynamics to forecast outcomes accurately. The model has an impressive track record in motorsports, correctly picking 26 NASCAR winners since 2021 and successfully projecting numerous race winners across F1 seasons.
In Formula 1, McClure’s model has been notably precise since 2021, identifying 10 winners over the 2021 and 2022 seasons and perfectly forecasting Max Verstappen’s 19 victories in 2023 along with his seven wins in early 2024. It also accurately predicted Norris’s several victories in 2024 and early 2025, including the Australian, Monaco, and British Grands Prix. The model has forecasted 34 of the last 56 Formula 1 winners dating back to 2023, signaling strong reliability for this weekend’s Belgian GP predictions.
Emerging Dark Horse: Pierre Gasly’s Potential Top-10 Finish
One of the more intriguing suggestions from the model is its confidence in Pierre Gasly to secure a top-10 finish at +185 odds. Gasly’s recent form has been encouraging, including a sixth-place finish at the British GP where he overtook Lance Stroll on the final lap — his best result this season. Though Alpine has faced difficulties in 2025, Gasly’s strong history at Spa underscores his potential to climb the leaderboard.
Gasly first triumphed at Spa in 2011 in the French F4 Championship when he was only 15, winning two races in the circuit’s feeder series over subsequent years. He also claimed victory at Spa in the GP2 Series in 2016. In Formula 1, Gasly has recorded five top-10 finishes across seven Belgian GP starts, including his career-best sprint race podium here two years ago, making him a compelling choice to watch.
How to Approach Betting Picks for the Belgian GP
The SportsLine simulation not only identifies the frontrunner but also highlights a driver with double-digit odds who could pull off a significant surprise this weekend. Betting on this contender might yield substantial returns given the unpredictable nature of Spa and the model’s history of longshot successes.
Race fans and bettors are encouraged to explore the full leaderboard projections and the complete list of predictions on SportsLine to make informed wagering decisions. The model’s consistency in predicting winners makes it a valuable tool for this pivotal mid-season F1 race.
Complete Odds and Driver Rankings for the 2025 Belgian Grand Prix
The following outlines the latest odds for the main contenders in the 2025 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix, subject to change, as provided by DraftKings:
Lando Norris +110
Oscar Piastri +145
Max Verstappen +600
Charles Leclerc +1600
George Russell +3400
Isack Hadjar +10000
Yuki Tsunoda +10000
Lewis Hamilton +10000
Alex Albon +10000
Kimi Antonelli +19000
Liam Lawson +19000
Gabriel Bortoleto +19000
Pierre Gasly +32000
Oliver Bearman +32000
Fernando Alonso +42000
Carlos Sainz +42000
Esteban Ocon +42000
Nico Hulkenberg +42000
Lance Stroll +50000
Franco Colapinto +50000
With this wide field and varied odds, the 2025 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix promises an energetic and unpredictable race, where favorites clash with hopeful longshots eager to seize their moment on one of F1’s most historic circuits.
The historical prestige of Spa-Francorchamps, combined with the statistical prowess of McClure’s predictive model, ensures this race will be one to remember and influence the trajectory of the 2025 season’s championship battle.