Reilly Opelka is set to face Sebastian Ofner in the first round of the National Bank Open on July 27, 2025, at Sobeys Stadium in Toronto, Canada. This ATP Masters 1000 event will be played on hard courts and features a prize pool of $9,193,540. The match marks the beginning of Opelka’s campaign in this prestigious tournament as he aims to assert his dominance early on.
Season Performance and Recent Form of Reilly Opelka
Opelka started his 2025 season strongly by reaching the final of the Brisbane International, where he defeated top players including Novak Djokovic and Giovanni Mpteshi Perricard before retiring in the championship against Jiri Leheckha. However, his momentum faltered with early exits at the Australian Open, Delray Beach Open, and a first-round loss to Roman Safiullin at Indian Wells Masters. He regained some confidence in Miami with straight-set victories over Christopher Eubanks and a notable three-set win against the 11th seed Holger Rune.
Despite these wins, Opelka’s recent outing at the Washington Open was disappointing, as he lost in the second round to Daniil Medvedev, even after taking the first set. He arrives in Toronto looking to regain consistency and build upon his highs from earlier in the year.
Sebastian Ofner’s Status and Surface History
Sebastian Ofner will make his return to hard-court competition in this match after a nearly year-long absence from the surface. His last hard-court match was at the US Open, where he was defeated in the opening round by Francisco Cerundolo. Despite this break, hard courts remain Ofner’s strongest surface in terms of career success, boasting a win rate of 59.14%. His ability to perform on hard courts, combined with recent rest, could make this a competitive encounter.
Direct Encounters Between Opelka and Ofner
In their head-to-head record, Sebastian Ofner holds a slight advantage with a 1-0 lead over Reilly Opelka. This history adds an intriguing layer to their upcoming clash, as Opelka looks to even the score and prove his superiority on this occasion.
Statistical Insights and Match Outlook
Both players possess powerful serves, which can significantly influence the match’s outcome. In 2025, Opelka has demonstrated strong serving efficiency, landing 64.9% of his first serves and averaging 15.2 aces per match on hard courts. Ofner’s numbers from 2024 reflect a lower first-serve success at 57.9% and an average of 9.9 aces per match on the same surface. These statistics give Opelka a marginal edge in service effectiveness.
Ofner’s limited recent exposure to hard courts might hinder his ability to challenge Opelka effectively. Given Opelka’s robust serve and recent match experience on hard surfaces, he is favored to control the match. Predictions lean towards a straight-sets victory for Opelka in this first-round encounter.
Anticipated Impact of the Match
This match serves as an important test for Opelka as he attempts to regain form and momentum heading deeper into the National Bank Open. For Ofner, it offers a chance to reestablish himself on his best surface, despite the lack of recent matches there. The outcome could influence their confidence levels for the rest of the ATP Masters 1000 season and impact their rankings moving forward in 2025.