Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby showcased eye-catching moments during the 2024 NFL season, yet a deeper look at his performance metrics reveals reasons for fantasy football managers to reconsider his long-term value. As the 2025 fantasy football season approaches, questions persist regarding Bigsby’s ability to maintain his production amid rising costs and shifting team dynamics.

Bigsby’s 2024 season was defined by an unusual pattern of production heavily reliant on a few explosive runs. Specifically, 16.1% of his total rushing yards came from runs exceeding 50 yards, significantly higher than the typical 4.2% observed across NFL running backs. This was largely due to two exceptional breakaway runs early on, which skewed his overall statistics and raised concerns about replicability.

Comparing Bigsby’s Breakout Runs to His Rookie Baseline and Peers

When compared to his rookie year in 2023, Bigsby’s big-play ability appears inconsistent. During his rookie season, he had only 50 rushing attempts with a longest run of 12 yards, suggesting a player who was not previously known for significant breakaway speed. This contrast indicates that Bigsby’s 2024 highlights may not be representative of his typical output.

Further complicating this view, Bigsby operates behind a Jacksonville offensive line ranked 17th in performance, which is less conducive to consistent running success than higher-graded units. By contrast, elite backs like Saquon Barkley benefit from superior blocking schemes and more established offenses, making their big plays more sustainable.

Fantasy Managers Adjust Their Expectations as 2025 Approaches

Market sentiment reflects growing skepticism about Bigsby’s potential for sustained success. Early in the 2024 draft season, 60.3% of Bigsby-related trades on the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer involved managers acquiring him, indicating initial optimism about his role expansion. However, by July, this percentage had fallen sharply to 35.2%, signaling a notable shift in perception coinciding with his rising price.

This retreat suggests that fantasy managers are recognizing the risk that Bigsby’s production, which depends heavily on occasional explosive plays, may not hold steady in the coming season. The timing also aligns with increased engagement from more serious players who scrutinize underlying stats and adjust their strategies accordingly.

New Rookie Bhayshul Tuten Adds Competition in Jacksonville’s Backfield

Jacksonville’s drafting of Bhayshul Tuten, a fourth-round pick from Virginia Tech, introduces an additional variable to Bigsby’s fantasy outlook. Tuten impressed at the college level with 17 touchdowns last season and is noted for his ability to generate explosive plays, mirroring the qualities that made Bigsby attractive.

This overlap in skill sets suggests that the Jaguars are not relying solely on Bigsby to be their primary threat in the running game. While Tuten is unlikely to immediately dominate touches, his development throughout 2025 could redistribute opportunities, reducing Bigsby’s access to key explosive situations.

The coaching staff’s investment in multiple backs capable of big plays underscores a strategic desire for varied offensive threats, which inherently caps Bigsby’s role and ceiling within the offense.

Evaluating Bigsby’s Fantasy Prospects: Consistency Over Flashy Highlights

Tank Bigsby’s 2024 breakout moments highlight the challenges of relying on infrequent big plays rather than consistent day-to-day production for fantasy success. Although his early-season explosions created memorable highlights and boosted his season stats, the underlying factors point to an unsustainable foundation.

Seasoned fantasy managers emphasize the importance of reliable contributors who provide steady outputs instead of boom-or-bust performers dependent on situational success. Bigsby’s combination of a mediocre offensive line, limited prior big-play history, and Jacksonville’s addition of a similar back complicates his fantasy value and increases uncertainty at his current market price.

The noticeable cooling in fantasy trade and acquisition interest reflects this more cautious perspective. The lesson for fantasy football managers is that measurable, repeatable production tends to outweigh isolated highlight plays when building championship-caliber rosters.