As August approaches, the American League Cy Young Award race has narrowed down to a fierce competition mainly between reigning champion Tarik Skubal and his closest challenger, Garrett Crochet. Both left-handed pitchers stand out not only for their statistics but also for how they have adapted their pitching arsenals this season, making the Tarik Skubal Cy Young Race one of the most compelling contests in recent memory.
Skubal and Crochet continue to dominate the league in key pitching metrics such as ERA, strikeouts, and fWAR. While Skubal holds a slight edge in fWAR (5.2 to 4.5) and FIP (1.91 to 2.41), Crochet’s more extensive innings pitched (135.1 to 127.2) and marginal lead in strikeouts (165 to 164) suggest a narrowing gap between the two. Despite Skubal’s status as the front-runner, Crochet remains a strong contender poised to claim the award for the first time in his career.
Examining Tarik Skubal’s Growth and Dominance
Following a unanimous Cy Young victory in 2024, where Skubal received all 30 first-place votes, the Tigers’ ace has elevated his performance even further this year. His ERA and FIP have declined noticeably compared to last season, improvements he attributes to adjustments in his pitching method—particularly the refinement of his changeup. The 32.1% usage rate of this pitch now leads his arsenal, surpassing the 4-Seam Fastball that had previously been his primary weapon.
Batters have struggled significantly against Skubal’s changeup, hitting just .157 with a slugging percentage of .203 in 175 plate appearances. His confidence in using the pitch against left-handed hitters has increased dramatically, jumping from 10.6% usage last year to 21.4% this season. This strategic shift has yielded remarkable results, with opponents batting an astonishing .053 against the changeup when facing Skubal as a starter, the lowest in the majors among pitchers with at least 50 such pitches thrown.
Overall, Skubal’s changeup boasts a 47.8% whiff rate and limits the average exit velocity to 83.7 mph, a significant factor in its effectiveness. The pitch has an impressive 3.1 Run Value per 100 throws, a dramatic leap from 0.8 last season, ranking it the best changeup across Major League Baseball. This progress likely stems from an alteration in the pitch’s movement, where Skubal has traded two inches of vertical drop for an additional 2 mph of velocity, creating greater deception for hitters.
Significant changes in hitting patterns further demonstrate the impact of this pitch. Pull-side batted balls against his changeup have declined from 44.2% to 41.3% overall, with an even sharper drop on fly balls—from 47.1% pulled last year down to just 21.1% in the current season. This reduction correlates with a decrease in home run rates on fly balls, which have fallen from 11.8% to 5.3%, helping to maintain his overall dominance on the mound.
While Skubal’s changeup has become the centerpiece of his success, his other pitches have maintained their usual effectiveness, keeping opponents off balance. His steady performance continues to keep him at the forefront of the Cy Young race.
Garrett Crochet’s Strategic Adjustments and Rising Threat
In his inaugural season with the Boston Red Sox, Garrett Crochet has also revamped his pitch selection to improve results. Notably, he reduced his reliance on the 4-Seam Fastball, cutting its usage from 53.6% last year to 40.5% this season. The surplus has been allocated to his sweeper and sinker, which together have seen an increase of 14.3% in usage.
These pitches have been effective, as opponents hit just .177 with a slugging percentage of .201 against them this year, while also swinging and missing 30.1% of the time. Crochet’s sinker and sweeper have each become pivotal in limiting damage, with their combined Run Value per 100 pitches ranking at the top among pitchers throwing such pitches. Specifically, Crochet’s sweeper leads baseball with a 4.0 RV/100, surpassing competitors like Steven Matz, Framber Valdez, and Mitch Keller.
This season’s improvements have come mainly through changes in movement rather than velocity. Crochet sacrificed speed to generate more movement on his sweeper, resulting in a decrease in average exit velocity against from 85.1 mph to 83.1 mph. The pitch’s ground ball rate has increased from 33.3% to 55.4%, converting more batted balls into manageable grounders despite the Red Sox’s infield ranking near the bottom in Outs Above Average.
The quality of contact off the sweeper has shifted notably. While in 2024, the pitch allowed multiple extra-base hits, including two doubles, a triple, and five home runs, this year it has conceded only three doubles, underscoring its enhanced suppression of damaging hits.
However, not all of Crochet’s arsenal has improved. His 4-Seam Fastball remains his least effective pitch, yielding a .241 opponent batting average and a .440 slugging percentage. This equates to a negative Run Value (-0.2 RV/100), prompting Crochet to decrease its use by 14% in favor of the better-performing sinker and sweeper, a strategic adjustment that has clearly benefited his overall pitching profile.
Looking Ahead to the Final Stretch
As the season progresses, the upcoming lineups each pitcher will face could play a decisive role in determining the Cy Young winner. If Skubal and Crochet continue to make all their scheduled starts, projections indicate they will encounter comparable competition, with Skubal’s remaining opponents holding a combined winning percentage of .507 and Crochet’s at .505.
There is also a tantalizing possibility of a direct showdown between the two on the penultimate day of the regular season at Fenway Park. Such a matchup could prove pivotal in settling the tight AL Cy Young race, adding an extra layer of excitement to the final weeks.
Currently, the key advantage for Skubal lies in his superior strikeout and walk rates. The Tigers’ ace posts a strikeout rate of 34% compared to Crochet’s 30.6%, and a walk rate of just 3.3% versus Crochet’s 6.7%. To remain competitive, Crochet must narrow these gaps as the season winds down.
Assessing their remaining opponents’ stats against left-handed pitchers reveals similar challenges: Skubal’s adversaries hold a 22.9% strikeout rate against lefties and an 8.2% walk rate, close to league averages. Crochet’s opponents are slightly more favorable with a 23.3% strikeout and 8.0% walk rate. These figures suggest that Crochet has a viable path to incrementally improve his performance metrics to close the gap with Skubal before the season ends.
The intense duel between Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet highlights not only their personal evolutions but also the strategic complexity shaping the Cy Young race. With both pitchers demonstrating elite skills and adaptability, the final weeks of the season promise to deliver a captivating conclusion to a tightly contested battle for Major League Baseball’s top pitching honor.