Oneil Cruz showcased his exceptional power during the MLB Home Run Derby at Truist Park during All-Star Weekend in Atlanta, even though he was knocked out in the first round. On Saturday at PNC Park, Cruz ended an 11-game homer drought with his 17th home run of the season, hitting against the Diamondbacks, and is now one of the top power bets for Sunday’s MLB games with odds set as high as +430. This makes Oneil Cruz MLB home run picks a focal point for bettors looking to capitalize on his turning momentum.
Home run prop bets are widely available on nearly every MLB game, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model, which has simulated each game 10,000 times this season, helps identify the best betting opportunities. The model has been impressive this season with a 46.95 units gain on individual MLB home run picks and has successfully predicted two parlays with odds over 80-1. Sunday’s home run betting projections are revealed by SportsLine’s data scientists and the model to assist MLB fans and bettors.
Why Oneil Cruz Is the Top Home Run Bet
Despite having 17 home runs this season, which ranks him tied for 47th in MLB, Oneil Cruz’s raw power is evident through several advanced metrics. He ranks in the 99th percentile among all hitters in critical power indicators such as average exit velocity at 96.3 mph, barrel rate of 21.7%, hard-hit contact at 57.1%, and bat speed at 78.5 mph. Notably, 16 of his 17 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers, and this Sunday he faces a righty who has struggled recently.
Zac Gallen has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts heading into this game. Gallen has also allowed multiple HRs in four of his last eight starts and leads the league with 23 home runs allowed,
SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said.
We set Cruz’s line at +348 to hit a HR.
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Data Analyst
The current betting favorite for Cruz to hit a home run comes from FanDuel, offering +430 odds, and a promotion that provides $150 in bonus bets if the first $5 wager wins makes this an appealing option for bettors looking to back Cruz’s power potential.
Other Notable Home Run Candidates: Brent Rooker and Pete Alonso
Brent Rooker of the Athletics is another player expected to make an impact, especially against left-handed pitchers. Rooker is batting .304 with a remarkable 1.010 OPS against lefties this season. Although he went 0-for-3 against Colton Gordon earlier in the year, in his last at-bat against Gordon, Rooker produced a 108 mph hit, suggesting he could break through soon.
Rooker is hitting .304 with a 1.010 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. Rooker faced Astros’ rookie, Colton Gordon, earlier in the season and while he went 0-3, he hit the ball 108 mph in his last at bat,
Fetner said.
Right-handed batters have 10 home runs and an .887 OPS against Gordon in 12 starts this season.
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Data Analyst
The model places Rooker’s home run odds at +265, and bettors can take advantage with bet365’s promotion offering $150 in bonus bets for new users who place a $5 or greater wager. This positioning makes Rooker a strong pick for Sunday’s MLB contests.
Pete Alonso of the Mets is also on the radar, having recently knocked his 22nd homer of the season during a midweek game against the Angels. Although Alonso is 1-for-8 in his current series against the Giants, the Giants’ bullpen day on Sunday favors hitters like him who thrive on facing relief pitchers. Alonso has posted a higher OPS on the road (.911) compared to home games (.839), revealing his strong away game form.
Alonso has been better on the road than at home this season with a .911 OPS on the road compared to a .839 OPS at home,
Fetner said.
We set Alonso’s line at +340 to hit a HR.
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine Data Analyst
Bettors interested in Alonso can find offers via DraftKings, including $150 in bonus bets instantly for new users, making him a viable home run choice for Sunday.
Where to Place MLB Home Run Prop Bets on Sunday
Several sportsbooks will feature MLB home run prop bets on Sunday, often coupled with attractive promotions for new users. Caesars offers a
“Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets”
promotion with code CBSDYW. BetMGM is offering up to $1,500 in bonus bets if a user’s first bet loses (promo code CBSSPORTS). FanDuel features a
“Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins”
offer, paired with competitive odds for home runs.
DraftKings also provides a “Bet $5, Get $150” bonus bet instantly for new users, while Fanatics has promotions including up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets. Lastly, bet365 offers a “Bet $5, Get $150” bonus regardless of win or loss, with code CBSBET365, rounding out the list of popular sportsbooks for MLB prop betting this weekend.
Additional MLB Home Run Picks and Projections to Consider
Beyond Cruz, Rooker, and Alonso, SportsLine’s model offers a wide range of MLB player prop projections for Sunday, covering all games and home run bets. These include listings such as:
- Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+430)
- Brent Rooker, Athletics (+350)
- Pete Alonso, Mets (+520)
For those interested in longshot bets or parlay opportunities, the model highlights that combining these picks on platforms like FanDuel could yield significant payout odds above +14687, emphasizing the high-reward potential of these carefully selected home run prop bets.
With experts like SportsLine’s data scientists constantly refining projections and sportsbooks offering generous bonuses, Sunday’s MLB games offer numerous chances for bettors to engage with Oneil Cruz MLB home run picks and other top power hitters. Tracking the evolving lineups and pitcher vulnerabilities will remain key as the season progresses.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. What surgery did Oneil Cruz have?
A. Greg Altman and Dr. Darren Frank helped fix Cruz’s broken left fibula. They also treated damage to a joint near his ankle. Manager Derek Shelton felt somewhat relieved the damage was only around the ankle and didn’t affect other areas of the left leg.
Q. What was Oneil Cruz’s injury?
A. Cruz is going to the injured list because of a broken right foot. His season has already seen limited playtime. This is Oneil Cruz’s first time officially being put on the injured list. The 91st overall prospect, according to MLB.com, got the fracture while playing for Class A Advanced Bradenton on Saturday.