Aaron Judge was widely regarded as the obvious choice to win the American League MVP award in 2025, but recent challenges and an injury have shifted the outlook. The Seattle Mariners’ catcher, Cal Raleigh, now stands as the frontrunner for the prestigious honor.
Raleigh’s rise has been remarkable this MLB season. Once considered a long shot, he currently holds the top spot on major sportsbook boards, with odds ranging from –125 to –145. Meanwhile, Judge’s chances have diminished to roughly +100 after being placed on the injured list due to a right elbow flexor strain. This injury sidelined the Yankees slugger abruptly, upending what appeared to be a locked-in MVP race.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is the favorite (-135) to win AL MVP for the first time this season at @BetMGM over Aaron Judge (+105).
Last week, Judge was -650 and Raleigh +300.
Judge was a -10000 favorite earlier in the season
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) July 28, 2025
Judge’s dominance earlier in the season was clear—his odds once stood at an overwhelming -10000. Just last week, he was favored at -650 while Raleigh lingered at +300, highlighting how quickly the landscape has changed in favor of the Mariners catcher.
Impressive Statistics Fuel Raleigh’s MVP Rise
Cal Raleigh’s performance details why he is now leading the AL MVP chase. As of Monday, Raleigh tops Major League Baseball with 41 home runs and ranks first in the American League in RBIs. His batting line—a .257 average, .368 on-base percentage, and .618 slugging percentage—reflects a combination of power and plate discipline.
Defensively, Raleigh shines behind the plate, delivering elite work that complements his offensive contributions. His All-Star break triumph in the Home Run Derby further elevated his profile, and many fans consider that moment his breakout on the national stage.
The injury to Judge gave Raleigh the opening needed to gain momentum at the sportsbooks, where his implied probability of winning the MVP now exceeds 58%, surpassing Judge’s approximate 50% chance on some betting platforms.
Challenges Ahead: Monitoring Raleigh’s Endurance as Season Progresses
The question remains whether Raleigh can sustain this exceptional level through the remainder of the season. Catching every day poses significant physical demands, and fatigue often becomes a factor late in the campaign. His endurance and ability to stay healthy will be closely watched by fans and bettors alike as August unfolds.
Seattle Mariners history shows only two MVP winners have emerged from the franchise. Ken Griffey Jr. earned the award in 1997, becoming the team’s first, followed by Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, who later gained induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Should Raleigh maintain his current pace and ultimately claim the MVP, he will join a select lineage of Mariners greats.
Implications of Raleigh’s Ascendancy for the AL MVP Race
Cal Raleigh’s rise to AL MVP favorite status marks a significant shift in the 2025 race. With Aaron Judge sidelined, the Mariners catcher has seized the opportunity, both statistically and in public perception, to claim the league’s most coveted individual award. How Raleigh manages the physical toll of catching and the pressure of the closing months will be key to whether he can hold his lead.
This development also carries weight for Seattle’s franchise history, as capturing an MVP title would bring new recognition and excitement to the Mariners and their fan base. The remainder of the season promises intense competition and attention to Raleigh’s continued performance and Judge’s potential return.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. How much is Cal Raleigh paid?
A. Upon the commissioner’s approval, he will receive a $10 million signing bonus. His salary will be $1 million this year, $11 million in 2027, $12 million in 2028, and $23 million annually for the next three years.
Q. How much does Cal Raleigh earn?
A. The Seattle Mariners and their main catcher, Cal Raleigh, are close to agreeing on a six-year contract extension valued at $105 million. This contract will begin this season and continue until the end of the 2030 season.
Q. Is Cal Raleigh any good?
A. In 297 times at bat, he has a .918 OPS and hit 22 home runs. His 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers places him 16th in the MLB. This shows that, although Cal Raleigh is famous for his left-handed home runs with the Mariners, his outstanding 2025 season is more due to his strength when batting right-handed.