Selected fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, Kyle Pitts arrived with high expectations as one of the most promising tight ends in fantasy football. Despite a strong rookie season featuring over 1,000 receiving yards, Pitts’ performance has since faltered, leaving many fantasy managers uncertain about his future potential. With Michael Penix Jr. now leading the Atlanta Falcons, 2025 stands as a crucial season for Pitts to reestablish himself in the fantasy football conversation.

In his rookie year, Pitts posted 1,026 receiving yards, becoming only the second tight end ever to surpass 1,000 yards in his first season. He ranked third among tight ends and finished as the TE11 in fantasy points, setting the bar for what many expected to be an elite career. However, his second year quickly deviated from that path, as a knee injury in Week 11 interrupted a disappointing 2022 season during which he played under quarterback Marcus Mariota. This torn MCL not only curtailed his season but has appeared to affect his performance in the long term.

Before getting injured, Pitts averaged 6.2 targets per game and had seven games with over 70 receiving yards in his first 27 games. After returning from injury, those numbers fell to 4.8 targets per game and just four games surpassing 70 yards over the next 34 contests. The 2024 season was another downturn despite Pitts playing a full 17-game schedule; he posted career lows in receptions (47) and yards (602) but did manage a personal best of four touchdowns. His 12.8 yards per catch ranked fourth among tight ends who qualified, indicating that when he does get chances, his playmaking ability remains strong.

The Role of Atlanta’s Offensive Challenges in Limiting Pitts’ Output

A significant factor behind Pitts’ inconsistent production has been the Falcons’ offensive scheme, which has not been conducive to maximizing tight end usage. According to Pro Football Focus, Atlanta’s 2024 offense ranked as

the NFL’s premier tight end-unfriendly offensive environment,

especially due to struggles in the play-action passing game, which is typically beneficial to tight ends.

Statistically, this misapplication of Pitts is clear. In 2024, he recorded only four play-action targets – a sharp decline from his previous seasons where he never fell below 23 play-action targets in a year. Considering Pitts ranked sixth in PFF receiving grade (92.5) on play-action targets from 2021 to 2023 among qualifying players, this reduced involvement represents a major underuse of a highly effective player.

Additionally, his rate of being the quarterback’s first-read target has steadily dropped from 16% in 2022, to 12.3% in 2023, and then down to 7.8% in 2024. This trend suggests that the Falcons’ offensive game plan has increasingly sidelined Pitts as a primary weapon, instead positioning him as more of a supporting option behind other skill players.

Impact of Michael Penix Jr. on Pitts’ 2025 Prospects

The arrival of Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback is the most significant factor shaping expectations for Pitts’ 2025 season. Penix, now the starter entering his second year, appears better suited to highlight Pitts’ skill set than former starter Kirk Cousins. Though the limited sample size of three games with Penix as starter resulted in just seven receptions for 66 yards and one touchdown, Penix demonstrated greater effectiveness in utilizing Pitts in the play-action game.

Anticipation is that Penix’s offensive style and experience could promote more play-action plays, which historically have been where Pitts excelled. Since 2021, Pitts leads all tight ends with at least 35 play-action targets in yards per reception (16.2) and ranks fifth in total play-action targets (85). This suggests a strong foundation for Pitts to capitalize on the change in quarterback and potentially regain his high-end fantasy form.

Assessing Kyle Pitts’ Place in the Fantasy Landscape Today

Despite disappointing results in recent years, Pitts’ overall performance since entering the league has been more than just underwhelming. He ranks within the top 10 tight ends for targets, receiving yards, and first-down catches since 2021, while also holding a spot in the top 16 for receptions, fantasy points, and fantasy points per game. His seasonal rankings as TE11 (2021), TE20 (injury-shortened 2022), TE15 (2023), and TE15 (2024) reflect consistent mid-tier production rather than a total failure.

At 24 years old, Pitts still possesses impressive physical tools. His ability to average 12.8 yards per catch—the fourth-best among qualified tight ends in 2024—indicates his potential to create big plays remains viable. This vertical threat could give him a higher ceiling than many of his positional peers, especially if Atlanta’s offensive system evolves to better suit his strengths.

Outlook for Pitts’ Fantasy Value and What Lies Ahead

Entering the 2025 season, Kyle Pitts is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward fantasy tight end. His current average draft position reflects a lack of enthusiasm from fantasy managers, which may present an opportunity for those willing to gamble on a breakout campaign. The combination of an emerging quarterback in Penix, Pitts’ natural talent, and strong historical play-action effectiveness creates a plausible case for improvement.

However, Pitts’ track record tempers optimism, prompting fantasy managers to regard him as a TE2 option with the potential to reach TE1 status, rather than a dependable starter every week. His high ceiling remains attractive, yet his inconsistency and prior underperformance suggest caution.

The 2025 campaign represents a pivotal moment for Pitts and the fantasy managers still invested in his upside. With Penix leading the offense and coordinator Zac Robinson entering his second year overseeing the scheme, the stage may finally be set for Pitts to deliver the breakout season many have been waiting for. Still, considering his recent history, wagering heavily on this outcome involves substantial risk.

Our Reader’s Queries

Q. Is Kyle Pitts a sleeper?

A. Kyle Pitts fits into my second type of post-hype sleeper category, offering great potential at a good price. This year, his ADP falls outside the top 10 tight ends for the first time.

Q. Is Kyle Pitts healthy?

A. Morris announced that Pitts is healthy, but Andersen will start training camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Pitts missed mandatory minicamp because of a foot injury, so this news is encouraging.