The Houston Astros are targeting Padres right-hander Dylan Cease as their top priority ahead of the trade deadline, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Alongside addressing pitching needs, Houston is also seeking to bolster its offense, with players like Willi Castro of the Twins, Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins, and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks reportedly under consideration. Interest in Castro had been recently highlighted by MLBTR.

Ongoing Rotation Injuries Have Created Urgent Need for Starting Pitching

Health issues have plagued the Astros’ pitching staff throughout the 2024 season. Key starters Luis Garcia, J.P. France, and Cristian Javier began the year on the injured list recovering from prior surgeries and remain sidelined. Additional setbacks include Tommy John surgeries for Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski, ruling them out for the season. Spencer Arrighetti suffered a fractured thumb after being struck during batting practice and has been out for nearly three months, while Lance McCullers Jr. recently joined the injured list due to a blister, and Brandon Walter is sidelined with elbow inflammation.

While the Astros still rely on a strong one-two punch from Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown atop the rotation, the rest of the rotation lacks stability. Spot starters like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Jason Alexander are filling in, but Houston is clearly intent on acquiring additional dependable arms rather than rely heavily on returning injured pitchers.

Dylan Cease’s Consistent Durability and Strikeout Ability Make Him a Valuable Target

Dylan Cease has established himself as a consistently reliable starter since his 2019 promotion, avoiding injury interruptions aside from a brief COVID-19 related absence. Over multiple seasons, Cease regularly completes a high number of starts—at least 32 in full seasons—and this year he has already made 22 starts. His durability is a major asset given the Astros’ pitching injury challenges.

Cease’s pitching strength lies in his ability to strike out roughly 30% of batters faced, showcasing his elite strikeout rate. While his earned run average (ERA) has fluctuated due to variations in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), strand rate, and home run rate, his advanced metrics have remained steady. His career fielding independent pitching (FIP) sits at 3.69 with a skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 3.82, and in full seasons he has never topped a SIERA above 4.10 or a FIP above 3.72.

2024 Performance Shows Elevated ERA, But Metrics Indicate Consistency

This season, Cease’s ERA is higher than usual at 4.79, although much of this appears to stem from external factors beyond his direct control. His .323 BABIP, a lower 68.5% strand rate, and a homers-to-fly ball rate of 13.3% all point to some bad luck, while his FIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.37) suggest he is pitching at roughly the same quality as in prior years. A particularly rough outing allowing nine runs in one of his early starts has contributed significantly to inflating his ERA.

Financial and Competitive Balance Tax Considerations May Complicate a Cease Trade

Despite Cease’s on-field appeal, the Astros face financial hurdles when considering acquiring him. Cease is owed $13.75 million this year, with $4.5 million remaining to be paid, which complicates Houston’s effort to avoid surpassing the competitive balance tax (CBT). After offseason moves including trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly, the Astros’ CBT projection is near $236 million, approximately $5 million above the base threshold, according to RosterResource estimates.

Adding Cease alone might be possible while staying under the CBT limit, but since the Astros also aim to add a bat, balancing payroll could prove difficult. However, reports suggest team owner Jim Crane, known for supporting star acquisitions, may be willing to exceed the CBT to secure a player of Cease’s caliber, as he showed intent to do during offseason efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman before Bregman moved to Boston.

Padres Seek Value in Return for Cease, Likely Expecting Versatile Players or Prospects

The Padres have stated that trading Dylan Cease is not a simple selling move but part of a strategic shift to save money, acquire a left fielder or catcher, or obtain prospects, which could then fund other pitching upgrades. Houston, operating with one of the weaker farm systems, may struggle to meet the Padres’ prospect demands, but could contribute players to meet other positional needs.

For example, catcher Victor Caratini is having a strong season for Houston, but with Yainer Diaz struggling, the Astros may be hesitant to part with Caratini. Yet, trading him could free up about $6 million in salary, potentially creating CBT space for other acquisitions.

Astros’ Current Outfield Mix Presents Limited Trade Chips, But Offers Defensive Flexibility

The Astros’ outfield sits depleted due to injuries to Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez, with a roster composed of Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, José Altuve, Jacob Melton, Cooper Hummel, and Chas McCormick. McCormick, despite previous success, has struggled in recent years and may not interest the Padres. Trammell’s recent hitting surge is tempered by a high strikeout rate, while Altuve and Smith are considered untouchable.

Jacob Melton, who bats left-handed and covers center field in Meyers’ absence, is likely hard to trade given Houston’s need for left-handed hitters.

Last Year’s Deadline Trade Offers a Potential Blueprint for Dealing Cease

Last season, the Astros traded three notable prospects—Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner—to the Blue Jays to acquire rental pitcher Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline, illustrating their willingness to use prospects for pitching reinforcements. Whether Houston’s current farm strength allows a similar package for Cease remains uncertain.

Dylan Cease’s journey to the Padres, facilitated by the White Sox acquiring him in a package including Drew Thorpe from the Padres, followed the Padres’ trade of Juan Soto to the Yankees for pitching prospects Michael King and Thorpe. This complex chain highlights how teams leverage prospects and payroll to reshape rotations.

Multiple Teams Complicating Astros’ Effort to Acquire Cease

Cease is reportedly attracting interest from several playoff contenders, including the Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, creating stiff competition as Houston looks to bolster its rotation.

Astros Also Seek a Left-Handed Hitter to Fill Lineup Vacancies Due to Injuries

Alongside pitching reinforcements, Houston is looking to add a left-handed bat with infield and/or left field defensive capabilities, given prolonged injuries to prominent hitters such as Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, shortstop Jeremy Peña, and third baseman Isaac Paredes. General manager Dana Brown has highlighted the team’s desire for such versatility, with players like José Altuve, Mauricio Dubón, and Zack Short providing some defensive flexibility to accommodate lineup adjustments.

Potential Offensive Targets: Jesús Sánchez and Jake McCarthy

Jesús Sánchez offers a league-average bat with a career line of .243/.310/.425 and a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 100. Sánchez, making $4.5 million this season with two arbitration years remaining, has shown noticeable splits favoring right-handed pitching, which complements Houston’s needs. The Marlins, undergoing a rebuild, are unlikely to hold tightly to Sánchez.

Jake McCarthy, previously effective with a .285/.349/.400 slash line and 25 stolen bases in 2024, has struggled significantly this year, hitting only .158/.232/.277 and spending time in the minors. However, his Triple-A performance of .314/.401/.440 indicates potential resurgence, and his near league-minimum salary and arbitration ineligibility make him an attractive, low-risk option.

Astros Navigate Challenging Mix of Roster Limitations and Competitive Ambitions

Facing multiple injuries across pitching and hitting, the Houston Astros must carefully balance financial constraints, roster composition, and competitive goals as the trade deadline approaches. Securing Dylan Cease could stabilize the rotation significantly, but the cost in salary and required assets may force difficult decisions, especially given their slimmer farm system and CBT considerations.

The pursuit of additional offensive talent with defensive versatility underscores the Astros’ attempt to remain contenders despite key setbacks. How Houston navigates these complex trade negotiations and roster adjustments will play a crucial role in their stretch run this season.