As the MLB trade deadline approaches, a number of teams are closely watching Arizona Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher Merrill Kelly’s availability. The Diamondbacks have struggled recently, dropping four games in a row and posting a 1-7 record over their last eight contests through their game against the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. Their ongoing slump, coupled with trading away players like Josh Naylor and Randal Grichuk, confirms their stance as sellers at this deadline, making Merrill Kelly a key figure in trade discussions.

Merrill Kelly MLB trade prospects have sparked intense speculation due to his impressive performance and contract affordability, making him a highly sought-after pitcher among contenders aiming to bolster their rotations.

Merrill Kelly’s Role and Value in the Diamondbacks’ Rotation

Merrill Kelly has been the cornerstone of Arizona’s starting rotation this season, serving as the team’s most consistent and dependable arm. Despite a few instances where he exited early due to cramping, those issues appear resolved as he has remained healthy and effective in recent outings. Kelly has pitched 128.2 innings across 22 starts, leading the league in starts while delivering solid overall performance metrics.

Kelly boasts a 3.22 ERA, backed by a 133 ERA+ and a 3.54 FIP, with an xFIP slightly higher at 3.61. His 3.3 bWAR reflects his considerable value, achieved alongside 121 strikeouts and just 38 walks. At age 36, Kelly stands out as one of Arizona’s healthiest pitchers amid a season plagued by injuries for the team. His opponents are hitting only .206 against him, a mark indicative of elite pitching capability. Kelly pitches without overpowering velocity, averaging a 92 mph fastball, but compensates with exceptional command and the ability to consistently throw strikes with all six of his pitches.

Data from Baseball Savant rates him in the 93rd percentile for Pitching Run Value and 98th percentile for Offspeed Run Value, underscoring his pitch effectiveness. His affordability also makes him attractive to contending teams, signed for just $7 million this year with slightly over $2 million remaining on his contract, positioning him as a cost-controlled option heading into the trade deadline.

Merrill Kelly’s recent postseason success further enhances his appeal. In the 2023 playoffs, Kelly pitched 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA and recorded 28 strikeouts, including a World Series victory. This combination of consistency, health, and playoff experience has made him a prime candidate for multiple teams seeking to reinforce their starting rotation.

Which Teams Are Potential Front-Runners to Acquire Merrill Kelly?

Houston Astros’ Desire for a Proven Third Starter

The Houston Astros are in the market for a reliable starting pitcher who can slot in behind their rotation leaders Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. They are interested in a seasoned, playoff-tested No. 3 starter, a role Kelly fits perfectly. This pursuit echoes past moves, such as Houston acquiring Zack Greinke in 2019, who became their dependable third starter alongside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

To land Kelly, the Astros would likely have to part with top pitching prospect Miguel Ullola and a second pitching prospect similar to Alimber Santa. Ullola is currently in Triple-A and features an elite fastball but needs refinement in his secondary pitches to remain a starter long-term. Santa, performing in Double-A, has shown promise as a reliever with a 1.26 ERA across 57 innings, utilizing a 100 mph fastball and a slider in the mid-80s.

Toronto Blue Jays’ Search for Starting Pitching Depth

The Toronto Blue Jays remain active in acquiring arms after recently adding reliever Seranthony Dominguez from Baltimore. In a competitive American League, they seek to strengthen their starting rotation further. However, their farm system is currently ranked lower in MLB, which means acquiring Kelly could require a higher prospect price.

A tempting offer from Toronto might involve Khal Stephen, a promising right-handed starter rising quickly through the minors, along with another prospect, Josh Kasevich. Stephen, pitching at Double-A, has posted an excellent 2.06 ERA with 99 strikeouts and only 18 walks through 91.2 innings this season across three levels. Kasevich is a contact-oriented infielder in Triple-A who, after recovering from injury, offers a steady bat aligned with Arizona’s player profile.

Chicago Cubs Eyeing a Strategic Investment in Prospects

The Chicago Cubs could capitalize on their top pitching prospects to keep their cost manageable. To avoid surrendering three or more prospects, a likely trade package would pair their top pitching prospect, Jaxon Wiggins, with a mid-level talent like Jack Neely.

Wiggins, currently in Double-A, has been outstanding with a 2.02 ERA spanning 62.1 innings, tallying 79 strikeouts. He has also earned a promotion this year and may finish the season in Triple-A. Neely, who has already debuted in the majors, resembles Justin Martínez in his high-risk, high-reward skill set, featuring a dominant slider and a near-100 mph fastball but struggling with control issues that Arizona’s system has previously helped players overcome.

Boston Red Sox Targeting Multiple Lower-Level Prospects

The Red Sox appear less likely to trade top prospect Payton Tolle, so they might offer a combination of less heralded but promising players. Brandon Clarke, a left-handed starter at High-A, exhibits potential as either a reliever or mid-rotation starter, possessing a fastball that can touch 100 mph and an ERA of 3.09 over 35 innings this year with 56 strikeouts. Blake Wehunt, a right-handed pitcher at Double-A, would complement Clarke. Wehunt has a 3.76 ERA through 52.2 innings with an effective four-pitch mix that projects as a possible back-end starter.

New York Yankees Possibility for a Balanced Prospect Swap

The New York Yankees are reportedly engaged in discussions with Arizona, and they possess prospects aligned with the Diamondbacks’ needs. A potential deal could include infielder Roc Riggio paired with right-handed pitcher Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz.

Riggio, a 23-year-old second baseman in Double-A, combines contact hitting with power, evidenced by an OPS of .951 with 18 home runs and 60 RBIs this season. Rodriguez-Cruz, also Double-A, has compiled a 2.42 ERA over nearly 97 innings, striking out 109 batters. His fastball reaches 98 mph, and he features three additional pitches with future potential. Continued development in command could establish him as a major No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

Detroit Tigers’ Effort to Fortify Their Rotation

With starting pitcher Reese Olson sidelined for the season, the Detroit Tigers urgently need a strong addition in the starting rotation. Currently hosting the Diamondbacks, the Tigers might look to execute a trade in the heat of competition similar to recent deals where players effectively “walked down the hallway” to their next team.

The Tigers could offer immediate help in Troy Melton, who is already pitching in the majors and recently threw seven scoreless innings versus Arizona. Melton offers upside as a potential strong starter in the Tigers’ rotation. In return, Arizona may seek Double-A second baseman Max Anderson, who sports a .889 OPS with 13 homers, combining power and average with enough defensive ability to project as an MLB regular.

Merrill Kelly’s Immediate and Future Impact on Arizona

Kelly remains one of the premier pitchers available at this year’s MLB trade deadline. His package will certainly attract several competitive offers, allowing the Diamondbacks to receive multiple high-quality prospects. These players are expected to accelerate Arizona’s rebuilding process, positioning the team to contend once more in the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

Statistical data referenced is current as of July 29, prior to subsequent games.