Tyreek Hill’s value in fantasy football is dropping rapidly, with data from PFSN highlighting a widespread trend of managers trading him away ahead of the 2025 draft. Following his 31st birthday, concerns over his decreasing playmaking ability are prompting many to exit their Hill investments, signaling a growing anxiety regarding his future output.
As a key receiver for the Miami Dolphins, Hill’s fading explosiveness has sparked debates among fantasy players about whether his decline may be sharper than anticipated, adding weight to mounting doubts about his reliability moving forward.
Trading Patterns Reflect Waning Confidence in Hill’s Production
PFSN’s Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer reports that 63.6% of users chose to trade away Hill in July, a clear indication of bearish sentiment surrounding him throughout the offseason. Rather than acquiring the wide receiver, managers have consistently moved off him each month, reinforcing a collective expectation of decline.
Historical data provides further context: fewer than 6% of wide receivers aged 31 or older have maintained an average of 15 or more PPR points per game over the last five seasons. Hill reached this age milestone in March, placing him within a group where such elite fantasy production is increasingly rare, casting a long shadow over his potential 2025 contributions.
A major factor behind Hill’s struggles is the sharp decrease in his hallmark ability to gain yards after the catch. In 2024, his average dropped to just 3.6 yards after reception, down 35% from 5.5 yards in 2023, representing a significant erosion of what had been his game-changing skill.
This downturn was exacerbated by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s limited availability, as Tua missed six games in the season due to a concussion and a subsequent hip injury, disrupting Hill’s opportunities to perform at his usual level.
Signs of Accelerated Decline Beyond Age
Beyond merely growing older, Hill’s reduced yards after catch suggest a deeper issue impacting his explosiveness. Throughout his career, his speed and agility have turned routine receptions into big plays, but the substantial drop over a single season indicates these traits are fading faster than expected.
This rapid decline in his most valuable skill set points towards an accelerated aging curve, which amplifies the risk Hill poses to fantasy managers who might still hold on to hope for a rebound.
The convergence of Hill’s aging and loss of key abilities explains why a growing number of fantasy managers are abandoning him ahead of the upcoming season. Their early recognition of these signs has resulted in a sell-off that outpaces what his name recognition and past exploits might otherwise command.
Implications for Draft Decisions in 2025
Recognizing Hill’s trajectory is critical for forming a successful 2025 fantasy strategy. Despite his legacy and previous production, his average draft position remains elevated, often being selected in the early third round of PPR leagues. This inflated draft cost may not reflect the current risks his numbers reveal.
Experienced fantasy players are already adjusting, as evidenced by PFSN data showing the majority steering away from Hill. This shift often precedes broader market corrections in rankings and draft boards, emphasizing the importance of reevaluating Hill’s status.
For those mulling over whether to draft Hill, the essential consideration is whether the decision is influenced by his historical success or grounded in realistic expectations for his future output. The data suggests his peak is behind him, making him a questionable pick at current valuations.
The pattern seen here echoes the common fate of aging stars who linger too long in fantasy drafts, ultimately becoming cautionary tales. With his yards after catch dropping significantly and the statistical rarity of receivers maintaining elite production past 30, Hill appears poised to join that list rather than defy the odds.