On July 31, 2025, Alex Michelsen will go head-to-head with Lorenzo Musetti in the third round of the National Bank Open held at Sobeys Stadium in Toronto, Canada. This ATP Masters 1000 event on hard courts promises a compelling battle as Michelsen aims to advance further in the prestigious tournament.

Performance Recap of Musetti and Michelsen So Far

Third seed Lorenzo Musetti, after a first-round bye, faced qualifier James Duckworth in his opening match. The Italian narrowly secured the first set with a late break, then dominated the second, winning 7-5, 6-1 with strong serving and aggressive play. Meanwhile, Alex Michelsen also started in the second round thanks to a bye, meeting Tomas Barrios Vera. Despite dropping his serve early in the opening set, Michelsen quickly regained momentum, saving multiple set points in an intense tie-break to win the first set. He then captured the match by taking the final three games of the second set, finishing 7-6 (7), 6-3 with a resilient and focused performance.

No Previous Encounters Between Michelsen and Musetti

This match marks the first career meeting between Alex Michelsen and Lorenzo Musetti, making their head-to-head record currently 0-0. Both players will enter the contest without direct prior experience against one another, adding an extra layer of unpredictability to the showdown.

Betting Odds and Match Expectations

According to the latest odds from BetMGM, the match is anticipated to be closely contested, reflecting the uncertain outcome of this fresh rivalry. Both players are seeking to build momentum as the US Open approaches, intensifying the stakes of this third-round clash.

Analyzing Their Form and Potential Outcomes

Both Michelsen and Musetti ended recent losing streaks with their wins at the Canadian Open, showcasing improved form. Michelsen excelled by winning 75 percent of his first serve points and delivered 35 winners despite 40 unforced errors in his tight victory over Barrios Vera. Musetti demonstrated high efficiency with first serves, winning 90 percent of those points, and struck 17 winners compared to 12 unforced errors against Duckworth.

Musetti’s results were hampered earlier by an injury that forced him to retire during the French Open semifinal against Carlos Alcaraz. He subsequently skipped most of the grass court season and made an early exit at Wimbledon. Additionally, he did not record a win at the recent Citi DC Open. Meanwhile, Michelsen experienced a challenging patch without injury but maintained a 12-9 record on hard courts this year, surpassing Musetti’s 7-5 tally on the same surface.

Though Michelsen is developing his game, he struggles against top 10 opponents, holding a 1-6 record with no sets won against this level of competition, all on hard courts. Musetti, with more experience dealing with elite opponents, may have a slight edge despite recent struggles. This dynamic leaves the match outcome uncertain, with both players eager to gain valuable confidence before the US Open.

Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti is favored to win in a tough three-set battle.