Each fantasy football season brings the usual rush of draft rankings, average draft positions (ADP), and statistical projections, but the real outcomes often defy expectations. Success in fantasy football hinges on securing players who outperform their ADP, while failure often comes from selecting those who decline in value. For the 2025 season, certain quarterbacks—including Jared Goff—show signs of potential busts that fantasy managers should seriously reconsider before drafting.
Jared Goff’s Uncertain Fantasy Outlook
After a surprising trade from the Los Angeles Rams to Detroit, Jared Goff faced skepticism given his past struggles and the success of Matthew Stafford, who replaced him and won a Super Bowl. Despite this, Goff helped Detroit emerge as an NFL contender. Still, concerns loom over his true fantasy value heading into 2025.
Last season, Goff showed flashes of accuracy, posting five games with over 80% completion. However, his interception issues persisted, including five picks against Houston and three interceptions during the NFC Divisional Round loss to the Washington Commanders. Although Goff finished last year as the sixth-best fantasy quarterback, this performance notably exceeded projections for the coming year.
Much of Goff’s recent success has been attributed to Ben Johnson, his offensive coordinator with the Rams, known for designing an efficient, short-to-medium passing scheme. With Johnson’s departure, Goff’s offense in Detroit faces potential regression, as Johnson is widely regarded as one of the best play-callers in recent NFL history. This shift casts doubt on Goff’s ability to sustain his high fantasy output.
My projection sets Jared Goff as the 15th-ranked fantasy quarterback for 2025, a significant drop from his QB6 finish last year.
The Challenges Facing Baker Mayfield’s Consistency
Baker Mayfield has improved since his 2018 rookie campaign, but sustaining a high-level fantasy season remains a challenge, especially after a strong QB4 finish last fall. One red flag is that Mayfield has now worked with three different offensive coordinators in as many years, which raises concerns about his offensive stability moving forward.
Mayfield’s supporting cast includes standout wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, along with newcomer Emeka Egbuka, which should bolster his production. Despite this, repeating a top-tier QB4 fantasy finish is a tall order, especially given the competitive landscape featuring elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, a Yale alumnus, is praised for his tactical acumen and is expected to maintain a consistent scheme. Yet, this continuity might not be enough for Mayfield to overcome the league’s top-tier QBs who dominate fantasy points.
Simply put, Mayfield is not currently a top-four fantasy quarterback in the NFL. My forecast assigns him a QB9 ranking for the 2025 campaign, a decline from his recent top-four finish.
“Baker Mayfield had a touchdown rate of 7.2% last year. There’ve been 15 quarterbacks since 2011 with next-season data who were +/- 0.5% in TD rate to Mayfield’s 2024 number. Every single one scored fewer fantasy points the following year. The group averaged a drop of 4.2 PPG.” —JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB)
Bo Nix’s Rookie Year Success and Upcoming Struggles
Bo Nix made a splash in 2024 as a rookie, finishing as the seventh-best fantasy quarterback in a system tailored to his strengths with abundant short and dump-off passes. However, sustaining such a high level of performance as a second-year player appears unlikely against a deep and talented QB group.
Nix is expected to transition into a more aggressive passing role, pushing toward a higher ceiling. Yet, his rookie production resembled simplistic, collegiate-style football that may not translate easily to an NFL environment that demands sophistication and adaptability.
The quarterback pool features elite players such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow, all expected to secure top fantasy spots. Even established stars like Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes face tremendous competition. In this context, Nix’s ability to maintain a top-10 fantasy quarterback ranking is doubtful, and his upside seems limited for 2025.
My projected ranking for Nix is QB18, a substantial drop from his QB7 finish as a rookie.
“The expectations are definitely higher, but that’s a good thing. It means you’re doing something right.” —Ian Rapoport, Broncos QB Bo Nix interview
Implications for Your 2025 Fantasy Draft Strategy
Avoiding fantasy QB busts like Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield could be crucial to success in your 2025 drafts. While Goff’s drop in offensive coordinator quality threatens a regression, Mayfield’s instability with offensive schemes and overwhelming competition challenge his ability to replicate a top-4 fantasy quarterback season.
Similarly, Bo Nix’s rookie year breakout should be viewed with caution given the significant leap expected in his sophomore campaign and the fierce quarterback talent around the league. Opting for quarterbacks with consistency and proven high ceilings, such as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson, might be the safer route.
Ultimately, recognizing these risks informs smarter draft decisions, helping avoid the pitfalls that can derail a fantasy season. By targeting sustainable upside instead of past performance spikes, fantasy managers can better navigate the fierce quarterback market in 2025.