With only three games scheduled for Thursday’s MLB slate, finding strong home run prop opportunities requires careful analysis. The focus on the Ryan McMahon MLB home run prop stands out, especially given his performance against the Rays’ pitching and the favorable matchup he faces. Alongside McMahon, Matt Olson and Adolis Garcia also offer intriguing picks, each presenting different odds and potential returns.
Wednesday’s outcomes included some success, as Anthony Volpe’s late-game home run helped the Yankees secure a win. For Thursday, three players across the Rays-Yankees, Braves-Reds, and Rangers-Mariners games are under the spotlight for their power-hitting capabilities, creating a diverse set of prop bets worth exploring.
Key Home Run Prop Bet Selections for July 31, 2025
The latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook set the lineup for Thursday’s top home run prop picks:
- Ryan McMahon at +560
- Matt Olson at +255
- Adolis Garcia at +520
Why Ryan McMahon’s Home Run Bet Holds Value
Ryan McMahon’s recent addition to the Yankees lineup signals a promising home run potential, particularly at +560 odds. McMahon’s clutch walk-off single during Wednesday’s 11th inning showcased his ability to perform under pressure. Facing Rays’ starter Ryan Pepiot in the series finale offers a strong matchup. Historically, McMahon has excelled against Pepiot, with four hits in nine plate appearances and a slugging percentage of .625.
McMahon’s power against right-handed pitchers is notable, having hit 14 of his 16 home runs this season off them. His average exit velocity ranks in the top 97 percent of the league, which indicates consistent hard contact. Although moving from Colorado’s hitter-friendly environment to Yankee Stadium, McMahon still benefits from the stadium’s short right-field porch, increasing his chances to cash in.
Examining Matt Olson’s Opportunity Against the Reds
Matt Olson stands out as the Braves’ home run leader, facing a challenging left-on-left matchup against Andrew Abbott. While Olson has only encountered Abbott twice with one hit, he maintains a solid .273 batting average against left-handed pitching overall. Abbott’s improvements in his third season include a lowered home run rate, making him less prone to hard contact.
Despite these factors, Olson’s recent form suggests reliability in delivering damage. Over the past month, Olson has recorded a .260 average with three home runs, making him a candidate viewed as “matchup-proof” in many betting circles.
Adolis Garcia Presents Another High-Value Home Run Chance
At +520 odds, Adolis Garcia might be the most attractive value on the board Thursday. Against Mariners starter George Kirby, Garcia boasts a .300 batting average in 21 plate appearances, including one home run. His power is confirmed by an average exit velocity of 92.5 miles per hour. Kirby, while known for his fastball and a varied pitch arsenal that induces chasing, allows opponents an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph.
Though Kirby has conceded only one home run to right-handed batters in 32 innings this season, his overall performance metrics like a 4.50 ERA and 3.56 xFIP, along with an 8.6% barrel rate, reveal moments of vulnerability. Garcia’s own profile, highlighted by an 87th percentile hard-hit rate and 85th percentile barrel rate, fits the mold of a hitter capable of seizing such opportunities and inflicting damage regardless of the pitcher.
Implications and What to Expect Moving Forward
The limited game schedule heightens the importance of selecting high-upside home run props, and the trio of McMahon, Olson, and Garcia provide compelling options with varied pricing and matchups. For bettors looking to capitalize on these props, understanding player splits, recent form, and pitching tendencies is essential.
Ryan McMahon’s +560 odds stand out as particularly lucrative given his matchup history and sustained power metrics, especially after his clutch performance the night before. Olson and Garcia, while facing some pitching challenges, offer solid chances based on their recent consistency and power hitting traits.
As these games unfold, monitoring in-game conditions and lineup changes will be crucial for those engaged with these prop bets. The outcomes could influence strategic selections for future games, highlighting the evolving nature of MLB prop betting within a tightly packed baseball schedule.