The rivalry to face Ilia Topuria next at lightweight appears to be narrowing down, with Arman Tsarukyan positioning himself as the likely challenger over Paddy Pimblett. Since Topuria’s swift return to lightweight following his short featherweight title reign at UFC 317, speculation has intensified about his next opponent given the UFC’s available options.
Among the candidates, the UFC seems to have three main contenders for Topuria’s upcoming title defense: a high-profile clash with Paddy Pimblett fueled by rising animosity, a final chance for veteran Justin Gaethje, or a performance-based matchup with Arman Tsarukyan. The meritocratic path through Tsarukyan, however, had appeared uncertain after UFC President Dana White remarked on the fighter’s withdrawal from UFC 311 and his backup status for UFC 317.
Despite this, Tsarukyan remains confident about securing the next title shot and has publicly accused Topuria of avoiding him recently, noting the champion’s controversial suggestion that he would prefer to vacate rather than fight Tsarukyan, a fighter nicknamed ‘Akhalkalakets’.
Tsarukyan Predicts High Probability of Facing Topuria Next
Tsarukyan emphasized his position in the lightweight rankings and his belief that the UFC cannot ignore his winning momentum. Speaking in an interview with Kamil Gadzhiev, he declared that he anticipates approximately a 70 percent chance of stepping into the Octagon against Topuria ahead of other contenders like Paddy Pimblett.
I’m number one in the rankings (aside from Charles Oliveira) but the UFC can do whatever they want,
Tsarukyan said (translated by Home of Fight).
Even if I won’t get a title shot next, if I keep winning they won’t have a choice but to give me one.
He also remarked on the negotiation status, pointing out the exclusivity of talks about a title fight:
I think there is a 70 percent chance I’ll fight Topuria next,
Tsarukyan added.
They didn’t even offer me anyone else. We’re only negotiating about a title fight.
This declaration underscores the tension surrounding Pimblett’s status as a front-runner and highlights the complexities of UFC matchmaking, where ranking and meritocracy often clash with promotional narratives.
ESPN Analyst Confirms Topuria vs. Tsarukyan Bout Scheduled for December
The speculation grounded by Tsarukyan received further validation from respected UFC analyst Chael Sonnen. In a recent video, Sonnen stated that the lightweight champion’s first title defense is officially booked for December at T-Mobile Arena, where he will face Tsarukyan.
I’m going to officially give you some of the worst kept secret matchups going on in MMA right now, Ilia Topuria is fighting Arman Tsarukyan and yes, I am telling you that,
Sonnen revealed.
That fight is done, just so you understand. … (Topuria is) not denying the fight, he has his approach that he has found to build fights,
Sonnen added, confirming the matchup’s official status.
Implications of the Lightweight Title Match and Next Steps
The confirmation of Topuria versus Tsarukyan as the next lightweight title fight places Paddy Pimblett’s UFC lightweight snub under the spotlight, raising questions about the organization’s decision-making and fighter trajectories. Pimblett’s recent victories, including his impressive win over Michael Chandler, suggested he might be the natural challenger, yet he sits on the sidelines as Tsarukyan takes center stage.
With Justin Gaethje’s potential shot seemingly sidelined and Pimblett bypassed, the UFC appears to be favoring ranking meritocracy, at least in this instance, over fan-driven narratives. This choice might provoke debate among fans and analysts about transparency and fairness within the promotion’s matchmaking system.
As Topuria prepares for the December defense, attention will shift to how Tsarukyan capitalizes on this opportunity to further cement his standing in the lightweight division. Meanwhile, Pimblett and his camp may be forced to recalibrate strategies to prove their worth for future title contention.