The New York Yankees will welcome back their captain, Aaron Judge, from the injured list this Tuesday. After a minimum 10-day absence caused by a flexor strain, Judge’s return arrives as the Yankees face a four-game losing streak that has narrowed their wild card lead to just 1½ games. This development holds significance as the team looks to reverse its recent downward trend, with Judge’s presence expected to bolster their offense.

Judge’s Injury and Rehabilitation Status

Judge suffered the flexor strain two weeks ago while making a throw and initially attempted to play through the discomfort. However, limited throwing ability forced the team to place him on the injured list to allow recovery. Crucially, tests confirmed that the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), commonly associated with Tommy John surgery, remains unscathed. The injury impacts Judge’s right arm, which is his rear arm during hitting, but he has reported no issues with his swing mechanics.

During his rehabilitation, Judge took three days off from batting early last week, progressing from tee drills to batting practice and eventually taking at-bats against minor league pitchers at the team’s spring training complex. While he is cleared to hit, he remains several days away from resuming throwing. For now, his role will be limited to designated hitter (DH) duties as he regains full readiness for outfield play.

Roster Adjustments and Outfield Dynamics

Judge’s activation coincides with a corresponding move to place outfielder Austin Slater on the injured list after he left Monday’s game due to a hamstring issue. Slater’s injury removes one option from the Yankees’ outfield depth, complicating lineup decisions.

Integrating Judge at DH seems straightforward, but it places strain on other roster pieces. Giancarlo Stanton, who has taken on a near full-time DH role since his return to the team on June 16, is currently performing strongly with a .270/.343/.532 slash line including 10 home runs over 36 games. Stanton’s season started late due to tennis elbow affecting both arms, but he has been a key offensive contributor since his debut.

Stanton, now 35, has not fielded defensively since September 2023 and has had limited outfield experience, with only 110 games played in the outfield over the past four years. He is a below-average runner, which raises concerns about his range and susceptibility to injury if overused defensively. Despite these factors, the Yankees are exploring options to deploy Stanton in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup while Judge remains at DH.

Manager Aaron Boone noted that Stanton has begun taking fly balls and outfield practice, with the potential of seeing game action there during the upcoming homestand starting Friday. Stanton himself expressed willingness, stating,

“I believe (our best chance to win is) going to be for me to be in the outfield. I’ll be working out there this coming week and be ready when needed,”

and added,

“It’s not going to be like I’ve never been out there before.”

—Giancarlo Stanton, Outfielder

The strategy is expected to involve using Stanton primarily in right field at Yankee Stadium, which is one of the smallest outfields in major league baseball, allowing him to protect his defensive limitations. He could play limited innings there before being substituted for a defensive replacement late in games, all while Judge works back into outfield action.

Challenges Remain Beyond Adding Judge

While Aaron Judge’s return undeniably improves the Yankees’ lineup, offense has not been the principal issue undermining the team over recent weeks. Instead, pitching has dramatically declined. Since July 1, both starting pitchers and relievers have struggled, resulting in a 5.85 ERA. The Yankees have allowed six or more runs in nearly half of their last 29 games and surrendered 30 runs in their last four contests.

To understand the scale of the pitching woes, consider these statistics since the start of July:

Record: 12-17

Runs scored per game: 5.45

Runs allowed per game: 6.24

Ranking in runs allowed per game: 28th in MLB

Scoring over five runs per game usually translates into winning. In fact, the Yankees rank fifth in runs scored per game since July 1 and are second overall for the season, led by Judge’s offensive output. Only the Chicago Cubs, with an average of 5.19 runs per game, slightly exceed New York’s scoring rate. The Yankees’ batting strength remains impressive, even without Judge over the last ten games.

However, the lack of pitching effectiveness has offset this offensive production. Only the Colorado Rockies (6.93) and Washington Nationals (6.56) have allowed more runs per game than the Yankees in this timeframe. This deficit is evident in the team’s subpar record when scoring five or more runs compared to league averages.

“When you score 5+ runs, you usually win the game. Yankees have 54 games with 5+ runs (T-5th-most in MLB). 39-15 record (.722) is 5th-worst (MLB avg .799, or 4 games better than NYY). And since July, only 10-8 when scoring 5+. Since July: 5th-most runs scored per gm but 3rd-most runs allowed per gm.” —James Smyth, Baseball Analyst

Judge’s return will provide much-needed offensive firepower but will not improve the Yankees’ ability to prevent runs. In fact, with Stanton potentially taking more time in the outfield despite his defensive limitations, the team’s run prevention could worsen. The Yankees’ primary challenge remains to address their pitching and defensive struggles; until then, they will need to rely on outscoring opponents to win games, a difficult and unsustainable approach.

Judge’s MVP Standing and Season Outlook

At 33 years old, Aaron Judge continues to showcase a remarkable season. He is hitting .342 with an on-base percentage of .449 and a slugging percentage of .711, along with 37 home runs. Judge leads major league baseball in multiple offensive categories, including batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. He trails American League leader Cal Raleigh in home runs by five and in RBIs by two, making a Triple Crown a possibility if Judge remains healthy.

Sportsbooks such as Caesars currently list Judge as the MVP favorite with odds of -230, followed by Raleigh at +150 and Tarik Skubal trailing at +4500. The FanGraphs WAR leaderboard, which includes defensive metrics like pitch framing for catchers, still places Judge well ahead of most competitors despite his time on the injured list.

Judge’s injury has not diminished his standing in the MVP race considerably, due to his strong performance before the injury and early indications that the strain affects only his throwing arm, not his hitting ability. If the Yankees improve in the coming weeks, the narrative could easily shift to

“Judge returned and saved their season,”

underscoring his impact on the team’s fortunes.

However, the MVP conversation is still premature as the season unfolds. The wild card race remains tight, with Judge’s Yankees closely matched against Cal Raleigh’s team. The ultimate award will depend heavily on how both players perform down the stretch and how their teams finish the season.