Jackson Chourio’s performance this season has not matched the lofty expectations set for him entering his age-21 campaign. While he showed promise with a strong July surge, his overall results have been uneven. From June onward, he posted a 143 wRC+ with a .303/.358/.525 slash line, but his full-season numbers settled at a respectable yet unimpressive 115 wRC+ and a .274/.309/.468 slash line. Despite these mixed results, Chourio remains a key contributor for the Milwaukee Brewers, combining solid centerfield defense with the highest fWAR on the <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/baseball/mlb/”>MLB’s best team.
The Impact of Chourio’s Aggressive Hitting Style on His Performance Fluctuations
Chourio’s fluctuating production reflects his aggressive approach at the plate paired with a batted-ball profile that is good but not outstanding. His heightened swing aggressiveness in early 2024 led to moments of success, especially during the second half of last season when it translated into hits and occasional home runs. However, when his approach fails to deliver, he struggles to overcome those shortcomings with power. In April, he maintained a 116 wRC+ but did so in an unsustainable way, hitting .271 with just a 1.5% walk rate and barely reaching a .300 on-base percentage.
That early season showed a 58.6% swing rate, dropping to 52.3% by June as his aggressiveness waned. Interestingly, in April, Chourio made better contact on fastballs but struggled against offspeed pitches, an unusual pattern for him. His whiff rates against fastballs reached a near-career low that month, though he continued to miss often against breaking balls. This suggested a potential shift in approach early on, but it faded as he reverted to thriving mostly on slower pitches.
Strength on Offspeed Pitches Contrasted with Fastball Vulnerabilities
Chourio’s ability to hit slower pitches well is evident, as he manages to make solid contact and capitalize on breaking balls left in the zone. While this skill helps him maintain offensive value, the MLB remains dominated by fastballs, which make up nearly 60% of the pitches he faces. Unfortunately for Chourio, he has a significant weakness detecting pitches at the upper part of the strike zone, creating an exploitable area for pitchers looking to get past him.
His swing path, recorded at a relatively flat 27 degrees compared to the league average of 32 degrees, theoretically should allow him to handle high pitches more effectively. Yet he struggles with fastballs in that zone, posting a 28.4% whiff rate, placing him in the lower tiers among hitters with similar swing angles. Despite a high contact ability rating of 106 by PLV metrics, these whiffs reveal a specific problem against certain pitch placements rather than a general contact issue.
Velocity Is Not the Main Factor Behind Chourio’s Fastball Problems
Though velocity often challenges hitters with flatter swings, data shows that Chourio does not falter more against faster fastballs. Among 141 hitters who faced at least 750 pitches this year, only 30 have better expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) on fastballs above 95 mph compared to those below. Chourio’s 0.016 xwOBA advantage on high-velocity fastballs ranks as the 16th largest. While his overall production against fastballs ranks near the bottom of this group, his performance does not deteriorate due to velocity—it reflects a lack of an edge rather than a glaring disadvantage.
Chourio’s Approach Leaves Him Vulnerable to Secondary Pitches
The central issue appears to be Chourio’s tendency to anticipate offspeed and breaking pitches rather than fastballs, even though he hits fastballs less effectively. This is evident in a recent encounter with pitcher Matthew Boyd. After taking a fastball for strike one, Boyd followed with changeups and sliders to build the count. When Boyd finally threw a fastball at two strikes, Chourio was late on the pitch, illustrating his defensive posture in pitcher’s counts. Boyd’s strategy relied on reduced fastball usage at two strikes, but the fastball still caught Chourio off guard.
This pattern has persisted throughout the season, with Chourio often on the back foot during pitcher-friendly counts. He generally makes contact but struggles to produce quality results. Nonetheless, his performance in these difficult counts has shown meaningful improvement, especially in his decision-making against pitches in the strike zone.
Significant July Improvement Marks Career Best Month
Chourio’s adjustments contributed to a drastic reduction in chase rate by July, aligning closer to his 2023 performance. This refined selectivity enabled him to see more hittable pitches as he laid off deceptive junk pitches. His hard-hit ability also peaked, setting a maximum exit velocity on a fastball during a two-strike count—a sinker that he drove sharply up the middle.
For July, Chourio’s wRC+ soared to 179 before an injury interrupted his momentum, marking the best single-month offensive output thus far in his major league career. Much of this success stems from his improved ability to hit effectively despite being behind in the count, a skill crucial for high-level hitters.
Future Prospects for Chourio and His Role with the Brewers
Jackson Chourio’s potential remains evident, though his aggressive style currently limits his ceiling. His combination of bat speed, solid contact skills, and consistent swing plane give him a strong foundation. However, his defensive approach against faster pitches in challenging counts continues to hinder him from reaching superstar status.
As he recovers from injury and returns to the Brewers lineup, expectations remain for Chourio to build on his recent improvements. His performance will be vital as Milwaukee battles for the National League Central division title, with Chourio’s ability to handle fastballs and approach pitcher-friendly scenarios likely shaping his impact going forward.