GREEN BAY, Wis. – Jordan Love, the Green Bay Packers quarterback, has seen a significant drop in his impact on point spreads entering this NFL season compared to last year. While Love ranked fifth for his effect on spreads in 2023, now he holds a more average position among starting quarterbacks, signaling concerns about his current performance level.
According to Yahoo sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes, who surveyed oddsmakers across U.S.-based sportsbooks, Love’s difference in point spreads against his backup has decreased substantially. This year, Love registers as the 11th most impactful quarterback, making a 4.73-point difference compared to Malik Willis, the Packers’ backup.
Comparison with Previous Season and Other NFC North Quarterbacks
Last season, Love had a 6.04-point difference over backup Sean Clifford, indicating a 1.27-point decline in value year-over-year. This shift reflects Love’s struggles during his second season as the team’s starter, marked by injuries, a low completion rate, and a higher interception percentage. The Packers managed a 9-6 record in games he started but posted a losing 7-8 record against the spread.
One sportsbook oddsmaker observed,
“Love is good, but their main element is running. He was a little overvalued last year.”
This sentiment highlights perceptions that Love’s offensive contributions may not fully justify his previous influence on betting markets.
Comparatively, Malik Willis has strengthened his standing by excelling in limited opportunities. Willis won two starts in place of Love, leading the Packers to victories against the Colts and Titans while helping cover the point spread both times. He notably inspired late-game comebacks against Jacksonville and Chicago, showcasing his ability to impact outcomes decisively.
Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich commented on Willis’s progression, stating,
“I think just knowing the offense, the concepts in the passing game, is the biggest difference from last year. When he came in, it was like, ‘All right, what do you like to do? What are your best skill-sets?’ And then we just tried to enhance that when he was in the game. Now it’s all right, just learn it all and then we can kind of see what you’re comfortable with, the stuff he wasn’t really even exposed to when he showed up.”
Within the NFC North, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff leads his peers with an 11th place ranking overall and a 5.06-point difference above backup Hendon Hooker. This marks him as the division’s most influential passer in terms of spreads.
Other Key Quarterback Impact Ratings Around the League
The top point spread disparities come from some of the NFL’s biggest names. Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen leads with a 6.98-point difference compared to Mitchell Trubisky, followed closely by Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes at 6.94 points over Gardner Minshew and Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson at 6.65 points above Cooper Rush.
The former Packers star and four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, now with the New York Jets, has experienced the largest drop, falling from a 5.07-point difference last year to 3.52 this season against Mason Rudolph. Although his ranking has slipped to 20th on this list, opinions on Rodgers remain divided among oddsmakers.
One analyst remarked,
“Even at this stage in Rodgers’ career, there is still a large disparity between him and Rudolph. (Rodgers) landed with a stable organization that I believe will provide him the opportunity to turn the clock back a bit and regain the impressive play that we have witnessed from him so often over his career.”
Packers’ Current Outlook and Playoff Ambitions
For the Green Bay Packers, the focus remains firmly on winning games and building momentum toward the postseason, regardless of betting metrics. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Green Bay holds the sixth-shortest Super Bowl odds, signaling confidence from betting markets but also pressure to perform.
Jordan Love addressed these expectations at the start of training camp, emphasizing the team’s need to improve its NFC North record after last year’s struggles.
“It’s definitely time to make a playoff run,”
Love said,
“Ever since I’ve been here, we’ve been a team that’s done well in the regular season. I think that’s the standard here. We’ve got to go win those games.”
He added,
“Big emphasis on the NFC North. We’ve done a great job of that in the past, and I think obviously last year was our worst year in the NFC North. It starts there. It starts with going out and winning those games against the NFC North teams. But I think obviously building upon that, once you get into the postseason, that’s the games that matter. For us to take that next step, it’s all about the work we put in every day.”
As the Packers navigate this uneasy period, Jordan Love’s fluctuating performance remains a crucial factor influencing betting lines and team prospects alike.