The MLB betting spotlight turns to Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, whose stolen base odds have climbed to +265 for Wednesday’s game against the Cubs. De La Cruz currently leads Cincinnati in hits, home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases, underlining his all-around threat. His recent performance includes a stolen base against the Braves at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday and an impressive four stolen bases over an eight-game stretch late last month, signaling a hot streak at the plate and on the bases.

The game will take place at Wrigley Field, known for favoring hitters, which adds to the optimism surrounding De La Cruz’s chances of swiping bags. The SportsLine model projects him at +202 for stolen bases, but bet365 stands out by offering +265, making it an attractive wager for bettors seeking value on this player prop.

Nick Kurtz Poised to Continue Power Surge with Home Run Odds at +333

Meanwhile, the Athletics‘ rookie slugger Nick Kurtz is also garnering attention with +333 odds to hit a home run in Wednesday’s game against the Washington Nationals. Kurtz has been an offensive force, currently riding a four-game hitting streak with a batting average of .311. Although he has not homered since his remarkable four-homer game against the Astros on July 25, his upcoming matchup presents a promising opportunity.

Kurtz faces Cade Cavalli, who is making his first major league start since 2022 and has struggled in recent Triple-A outings with a 9.00 ERA over six starts. The projection model assigns Kurtz a +168 chance of homering in this game, underscoring his potential impact. BetMGM features this prop with a welcome offer of up to $1,500 in bonus bets if the first bet loses, entrenching Kurtz as a prime candidate in betting circles.

Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman Likely to Surpass Strikeout Expectations

On the mound for the Blue Jays, pitcher Kevin Gausman enters Wednesday’s contest against the Rockies with +125 odds to record over 5.5 strikeouts. Gausman has tallied 127 strikeouts in 22 starts, averaging about 5.7 per game this season, but the Rockies rank as the second-worst team in terms of making contact, having struck out more frequently than most squads.

Gausman’s recent performances bolster the confidence in this prop, having struck out eight batters against the Yankees on July 21 and 10 against the Tigers on July 26. The model forecasts him to notch approximately 6.03 strikeouts on Wednesday. Caesars sportsbook is offering this bet with enticing promotions including ten 100% profit boosts for new users.

SportsLine Model Projections Guide High-Value MLB Player Props

SportsLine’s advanced projection model, which runs 10,000 simulations per MLB game, has established credibility with a profitable 27-22 record on top-rated money line picks in Week 19 of the 2025 season. It has been particularly accurate on home run prop bets, yielding nearly 50 units of profit this year. Those following the model’s picks have experienced solid returns by identifying undervalued odds across sportsbooks.

The model’s approach compares its internally generated projected lines with real-world sportsbook prices to uncover profitable betting angles. This method has highlighted Elly De La Cruz’s stolen base prop as an excellent opportunity given the difference between model value (+202) and bet365’s offer (+265). Conversely, FanDuel’s +198 on the same prop appears less appealing in comparison.

Context on Current MLB Player Prop Trends

Among notable players, Aaron Judge’s home run odds have declined from the +265 range to as low as +210 following a recent slump without a homer, underscoring bettors’ anticipation that he is “due” for another big hit. Meanwhile, Tyler Soderstrom remains priced modestly at +575 despite a similar dry spell, reflecting less betting attention.

Besides De La Cruz, Kurtz, and Gausman, the model highlights other players with promising prop bets, inviting bettors to shop around for the best lines. This cheat sheet includes projections for home runs, stolen bases, and strikeouts, aiming to help bettors maximize value on Wednesday’s MLB slate.

Wednesday’s Key MLB Player Prop Picks and Betting Opportunities

• Nick Kurtz, Athletics: Over 0.5 home runs at +333 at BetMGM, offering a risk-mitigating $1,500 bonus bet refund if the first wager fails.
• Elly De La Cruz, Reds: Over 0.5 stolen bases at +265 at bet365, featuring an instant $150 bonus bet for new customers.
• Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays: Over 5.5 strikeouts at +125 at Caesars, with ten profit boosts available to new bettors.

Implications for Bettors and What to Expect Next

The elevation in Elly De La Cruz stolen base odds to +265 signals growing confidence in his ability to deliver impactful base-stealing during a crucial game at Wrigley Field. The combination of his seasonal performance, recent hot streak, and favorable ballpark conditions bode well for bettors targeting this prop.

Simultaneously, the other highlighted player props—including Kurtz’s power potential and Gausman’s strikeout capability—reflect tight betting markets where nuanced insights from projection models become invaluable. As sportsbooks occasionally adjust lines in anticipation of player momentum shifts, savvy bettors are advised to monitor odds movement and promotions closely.

Looking ahead, use of advanced simulation models like SportsLine’s is expected to remain a key resource for identifying advantageous player prop bets amid an increasingly competitive MLB betting landscape. Following updates from trusted sources will help users capitalize on emerging opportunities as the season progresses.