Kyren Williams, the Los Angeles Rams running back, is attracting considerable attention in fantasy football circles, with many analysts recommending him as a second-round pick. However, some experienced fantasy managers are cautious, believing his current draft value might be inflated. Data from PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator indicates that Williams could be selected earlier than his actual value justifies, suggesting a potential overreach in the second round for those prioritizing Kyren Williams fantasy draft value.

Concerns Over Reliance on Touchdowns for Fantasy Success

Williams established himself rapidly in fantasy leagues by posting a remarkable touchdown rate, scoring 31 times in just 28 games over two seasons as the Rams’ starting running back. This equally impressive rate of over 1 touchdown per game is rare but unlikely to continue. While his effectiveness in the red zone remains strong, relying heavily on touchdowns introduces volatility to his fantasy production. Moreover, his capability for big plays is on a downward trajectory. In 2023, Williams produced explosive runs exceeding 10 yards on 11.4% of his carries, but this figure dropped to 8.5% last season. This decline signals reduced yardage potential per carry and suggests that his overall value depends more on volume and luck at the goal line than consistent yardage gains.

Davante Adams’ Arrival Alters the Rams’ Scoring Landscape

The addition of wide receiver Davante Adams during the offseason further complicates Williams’ fantasy outlook. Although Adams is replacing Cooper Kupp in the Rams’ receiving corps, the impact extends to red zone target allocation. Adams has led the NFL in red zone target share over the past two seasons with a rate of 36.8%, while Kupp’s was notably lower at 26.2%. This trend implies that Adams will now command more high-value touches inside the 20-yard line, reducing the opportunities for Williams to capitalize on touchdowns near the goal line. For fantasy managers drafting Williams in the second round, this change represents a sizable risk, as it bets against a potential touchdown regression amid increased competition for scoring chances.

Waiting for Value: A Strategy to Maximize Williams’ Potential

Interestingly, many users of PFSN’s platform are choosing to wait until the third round or later to draft Williams, reflecting hesitation among knowledgeable managers. This delay creates a value play opportunity for those willing to pass on him early. While his role as the Rams’ primary running back remains secure, the looming question is whether his production can justify the premium second-round cost. For those adopting a patient approach, selecting Williams later reduces risk and may yield significant upside, presenting a chance to secure an RB1 option without overpaying.

Allowing others to reach for Williams prematurely can result in greater returns for savvy drafters, as his realistic production ceiling does not necessarily align with his current draft cost. In this context, Williams represents not an unknown wildcard but an established player whose market value may be ahead of his true output potential heading into the 2025 fantasy football season.