This summer, the Orlando Magic quickly signed their franchise cornerstone, Paolo Banchero, to a five-year, $239 million maximum rookie contract extension. The deal came amid Banchero’s impressive performance since entering the <a href="https://www.buzzineintl.com/category/basketball/nba/”>NBA in 2022, but it has sparked debate over whether such a lucrative contract for the 22-year-old is warranted. The primary focus of scrutiny surrounds Paolo Banchero contract criticism and the possible risks it entails for the Magic franchise.
Former NBA Executive Voices Concerns over Contract Terms
John Hollinger, former Memphis Grizzlies vice president of basketball operations and current NBA columnist, has openly criticized the structure of Banchero’s deal. Writing for The Athletic, Hollinger acknowledged Banchero as a talented player but expressed doubts about whether he truly deserves a maximum contract.
Hollinger remarked,
“Banchero is a fine player, but I’m a little worried about this contract.”
—John Hollinger, NBA columnist
He also highlighted the contract’s escalator clause that immediately sets Banchero’s salary at 30 percent of the salary cap, even if he only makes third-team All-NBA. Hollinger drew parallels to previous contracts signed by Cade Cunningham in Detroit and Evan Mobley in Cleveland, which faced similar issues due to escalators without performance-triggered reductions. He stated,
“The Magic gave Banchero an immediate escalator to 30 percent of the cap even if he makes third-team All-NBA, setting up the same situation that Detroit (Cade Cunningham) and Cleveland (Evan Mobley) landed in a year ago, rather than negotiating a lower number if he didn’t make the first team.”
—John Hollinger, NBA columnist
Comparisons to Franz Wagner’s Contract and Lack of Protective Clauses
Hollinger compared Banchero’s new deal to the five-year, $225 million contract the Magic signed with Franz Wagner last season. He criticized the absence of provisions that safeguard the team’s interests, describing the contract as heavily tilted toward the player.
He noted,
“The Magic gave Banchero a fifth-year player option; between the 30 percent supermax and the player option, they basically squeezed all the potential upside out of the deal.”
—John Hollinger, NBA columnist
According to Hollinger, while Banchero may excel and render the contract worthwhile, the Magic have relinquished significant negotiating power without gaining meaningful concessions.
“Maybe Banchero is awesome this year, and it doesn’t matter, but you don’t do a contract like this unless the player is so incredible that it’s a median outcome. Otherwise, the Magic gave up everything in this contract and got zero concessions.”
—John Hollinger, NBA columnist
Risks of Decline and Luxury Tax Implications for Orlando
Hollinger warned that Banchero could face decline or plateau, which would amplify financial pressures on the Magic, particularly concerning luxury tax payments. He highlighted the risk of Banchero maintaining third-team All-NBA status despite a downturn, comparing the possible scenario to Julius Randle’s recent struggles.
He explained,
“The potential for Banchero to have a Julius Randle-ish year and back into third-team All-NBA is very real and would be a massive problem for the Magic given their luxury-tax issues over the coming four-year window.”
—John Hollinger, NBA columnist
Banchero’s Performance Since Entering the League
Despite the controversy, Banchero’s career trajectory has been encouraging. Last season, he averaged a career-best 25.9 points per game. Even though Orlando was ousted in the first round of the playoffs after five games by the Boston Celtics, Banchero posted an impressive 29.4 points per game, ranking sixth in postseason scoring.
After securing the Rookie of the Year award in 2022, Banchero earned his first All-Star selection the following year. Across three seasons with the Magic, he maintains averages of 22.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, underscoring his importance as a team leader and key player.
Implications for Orlando Magic and Future Outlook
The decision to award Paolo Banchero such a substantial contract reflects the Magic’s belief in his potential as their franchise centerpiece. However, concerns voiced by experts like John Hollinger underscore the financial risks involved, especially if Banchero’s performance fails to meet the deal’s lofty expectations.
This contract sets a significant financial commitment that could constrain Orlando’s flexibility under the salary cap and luxury tax rules for the next several years. Observers will closely monitor Banchero’s development and impact, as his ability to meet or exceed expectations will dictate the long-term success or hardship caused by this major investment.