Shane van Gisbergen’s NASCAR dominance on road courses has become impossible to ignore in 2025, as he commands respect throughout the NASCAR Cup Series. Across the four road course events held so far this season, van Gisbergen has posted an average finish of 2.25, propelled by an extraordinary streak of three consecutive victories at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, the Chicago street course, and Sonoma Raceway. The only driver to best him on a road course in 2025 was Christopher Bell at Circuit of the Americas in March.

As the Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen International for the race on August 10, van Gisbergen clearly carries the weight of his reputation as the indisputable road racing king. His consistently blistering lap times in practice and qualifying sessions intensify the pressure on his competitors, who face an imposing challenge when heading into this weekend’s event.

Van Gisbergen’s credentials and odds heading into Watkins Glen

Last year, van Gisbergen narrowly missed victory at Watkins Glen, finishing second after a last-minute bump-and-run move by Chris Buescher. However, all signs point to van Gisbergen as the overwhelming favorite this time around. According to DraftKings betting odds, van Gisbergen is listed at +135 to win, far ahead of any other contender. The only other driver with triple-digit odds is 19-year-old rookie Connor Zilisch, van Gisbergen’s teammate at Trackhouse Racing, making a part-time Cup start.

Van Gisbergen’s road course mastery this season goes beyond simply winning—he has dominated. His victory margin of over 16 seconds in Mexico City and commanding run in Sonoma, where he led 97 of 110 laps (the most laps led in that race’s history), underscore his superiority. This dominance further amplifies his aura; it often feels like the road course races are decided before the competition even reaches the starting grid.

Unlike some other tracks where his NASCAR Cup experience is limited, van Gisbergen has visited Watkins Glen before. This weekend, he will also compete in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race, earning additional track time. Since Watkins Glen is a less technical, faster-speed road course compared to venues like COTA or Mexico City, van Gisbergen’s precise timing and control tactics will be tested differently, though his skill set remains a significant advantage.

How van Gisbergen’s tactic of incremental gains sets him apart

Van Gisbergen’s road course strategy centers on finding consistent, small advantages that accumulate throughout the race, a formula that has kept him ahead of the Cup field. His past performance at Watkins Glen confirms his ability to translate these marginal gains into front-running results on this track as well. This weekend’s showdown is shaping up to be a defining test: van Gisbergen versus the competitive field. The odds and statistics heavily favor van Gisbergen, yet NASCAR races are famously unpredictable.

The mere fact that discussions focus so heavily on “van Gisbergen versus the field” highlights just how formidable the New Zealander has become on road circuits. Opponents brace themselves, knowing that any road race may turn into a daunting challenge against his blistering pace and tactical mastery.

Challengers aiming to disrupt van Gisbergen’s reign at Watkins Glen

While van Gisbergen holds a strong position, a number of drivers are poised to challenge him at Watkins Glen. Chris Buescher, who bested van Gisbergen last year on this course, remains a consistent and hungry competitor. Holding the final provisional playoff position by 23 points, Buescher has both momentum and motivation to defeat van Gisbergen again.

Chase Elliott is another contender with proven road course talent. Although he has yet to secure a road course win with the Next Gen car, Elliott came close at Watkins Glen in 2022. Recently, his No. 9 team has demonstrated renewed speed, raising hopes of a fierce duel between him and van Gisbergen for road racing supremacy this weekend.

Kyle Larson also stands out as a major threat. Having won back-to-back races at Watkins Glen in 2021 and 2022, and delivering a dominant performance at Sonoma in 2024, Larson’s team consistently fields vehicles capable of winning on any track. If anyone can overcome van Gisbergen’s challenge, it is likely Larson and his experienced No. 5 squad.

Why van Gisbergen’s ongoing road course success matters for NASCAR

Shane van Gisbergen’s surge as the dominant road course racer in the NASCAR Cup Series introduces a new dynamic in the sport’s competition. His rapid adaptation from other racing backgrounds to win decisively at NASCAR’s road courses forces rivals to elevate their performance or risk falling further behind. His presence enhances the excitement around road course events, introducing fresh storylines and rivalries.

The upcoming race at Watkins Glen will test whether van Gisbergen can maintain his iron grip on road racing or if challengers like Buescher, Elliott, and Larson can disrupt his winning streak. Beyond individual results, van Gisbergen’s success could influence how teams and drivers approach road course setups, strategy, and training in upcoming seasons.

As the Cup Series continues through 2025, the spotlight on Shane van Gisbergen will remain intense, and the stakes at Watkins Glen are high—not only for a trophy but for establishing lasting road course supremacy within NASCAR.

“He may have come up one spot shy of winning the Cup race at Watkins Glen a year ago, thanks to a perfectly timed bump-and-run by Chris Buescher, but make no mistake: van Gisbergen is the favorite to win this year’s event by a country mile.” —Samuel, NASCAR correspondent

“Every time the Cup field gears up for a road course race in 2025, all the headlines focus on him. There’s almost a feeling of the race being won before the haulers have managed to find their parking spots.” —Samuel, NASCAR correspondent

“Do you take van Gisbergen or the field this weekend? Either way, the numbers are enticing. Whether you look at van Gisbergen’s road course results, Vegas odds or the fact that it will be 39 vs. one on Sunday, there’s a compelling argument to be made for both sides of the equation.” —Samuel, NASCAR correspondent

“The fact that the conversation of van Gisbergen vs. the field is even being had at this point proves how scary the cheery New Zealander is to those who must tussle with him when NASCAR makes right turns.” —Samuel, NASCAR correspondent