Breece Hall entered last year’s fantasy football drafts as a widely regarded top-three running back, but his 2024 performance fell short of those expectations. With the New York Jets undergoing offensive adjustments and benefiting from an improved offensive line, the question remains whether Hall can regain his elite standing in 2025 and emerge as a strong fantasy value this season.
Hall’s 15.1 fantasy points per game in 2024 were seen as a disappointment relative to the high hopes surrounding him. While that point total would satisfy a typical third-round pick, it underwhelmed for someone drafted as an overall RB2 or RB3. Hall showed glimpses of elite potential during his rookie season in 2022 before an ACL injury cut it short, averaging 16.4 points per game over seven outings.
From Promising Talent to Mid-Tier RB2: A Closer Look at Hall’s Recent Seasons
After recovering from his injury, Hall returned gradually in 2023 but displayed flashes of his earlier form late in the season, posting 17.1 fantasy points per game overall and an impressive 33.2 points across the final three games. Such strong finishes fueled expectations for him to be a leading fantasy running back in 2024, with projections placing him around 20 points per game or higher.
Instead, Hall’s production dipped last season, as his efficiency declined despite a steady workload and increased snap share. Many expected a full season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers to boost Hall’s performance compared to the inconsistent backups in 2023, but that did not materialize as hoped. Hall finished as the overall RB17, a respectable but underwhelming ranking given his draft cost and previous promise.
One key factor in Hall’s reduced output was a decrease in his involvement in the passing game. His target share fell from 17% in 2023 to 13.8% in 2024, even though he led the league in routes run. What hurt most was his yards per route run, which dropped significantly from 1.74 to 1.14, highlighting struggles with efficiency despite sustained usage. Hall’s raw volume helped maintain his production, but it was clear the emerging offensive landscape limited his upside.
Competition in the Backfield and its Impact on Hall’s Role
The Jets’ running back room saw Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis share touches throughout the 2024 season, which diluted Hall’s opportunity to dominate as a lead back. The Jets’ head coach Aaron Glenn acknowledged this dynamic, noting,
“I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible”
and
“It could be a 1-2-3 punch with the guys we have”
—Aaron Glenn, Jets Head Coach.
This situation contrasts with the typical expectations for an elite RB1 who generally controls a lion’s share of touches unless they possess unique receiving skills like Jahmyr Gibbs. Hall’s shared workload poses a challenge for fantasy managers hoping for him to return to the upper echelon.
The Influence of a New Quarterback and Offensive Scheme in 2025
Looking ahead to the 2025 season, the Jets introduce a new offensive dynamic with Justin Fields taking over at quarterback. Fields’ mobility and rushing tendencies reduce the team’s passing volume, with historical data showing Fields averaging fewer pass attempts per game compared to Aaron Rodgers. Last season, Rodgers averaged 34.3 pass attempts per game, whereas Fields consistently averaged around 25 attempts per game during his time with the Steelers and Bears.
This reduced passing opportunity is critical because, despite Hall’s talent, his receiving numbers may suffer in this new offensive scheme. Fields has a 17.9% career target share to running backs, but the implications of fewer pass attempts overall could lower Hall’s receiving floor. To compensate, Hall will need to improve efficiency and scoring, aspects that fantasy managers typically find riskier to bank on.
Where Breece Hall Stands for Fantasy Managers in 2025 Drafts
Currently, Hall’s Average Draft Position (ADP) is around the 13th overall running back, typically going in the third round. This valuation reasonably balances his upside with the uncertainties surrounding his role and efficiency. The third round seems like a suitable slot for potential reward, especially amid a fantasy landscape where available wide receivers often lack appeal.
That said, caution remains. Hall ranks as the RB14 in some projections, reflecting skepticism alongside his upside. The possibility exists that he establishes himself as the primary backfield presence, commanding most touches. Alternatively, the Jets’ running back situation could devolve into a time-sharing scenario, with Hall operating more as a co-lead alongside Braelon Allen. Fantasy managers will need to weigh these possibilities carefully when making their choices.
Ultimately, Hall’s 2025 outlook carries both promise and risk, making him a high-upside but uncertain asset. Fantasy owners may have to decide on their comfort level with this balance when Hall comes off the board during drafts.