Brian Robinson Jr. has been the lead running back for the Washington Commanders since 2022, showing promise as a reliable player. After a strong start, Robinson faced challenges last season, including sharing carries with Austin Ekeler and dealing with injuries. Fantasy football managers looking at Robinson for 2025 should consider how these factors might influence his value in upcoming drafts.
Robinson’s Fantasy Production and Receiving Impact
In 2022, Robinson averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game, largely due to an unexpectedly productive receiving season. His target share rose to 8%, which was a significant increase from his rookie year. However, the boost in receiving yards came from a few standout plays rather than consistent volume. For example, two receptions in a single game against the Seahawks contributed nearly 27% of his total receiving yards that season.
While these explosive plays raised expectations, Robinson’s reputation as a receiving threat may be somewhat overstated. Although he reliably catches passes, his receiving ability does not broadly elevate his floor enough to count on as a primary receiving back.
Competition and Its Effect on Robinson’s Role
The offseason addition of Austin Ekeler to the Commanders reduced Robinson’s upside, especially in the passing game. With a smaller target share and an increased reliance on scoring touchdowns for fantasy points, Robinson’s profile became more similar to his rookie year. The arrival of quarterback Jayden Daniels also affected scoring distribution, and Robinson’s target share dropped back to 6%. Additionally, his yards per reception regressed to 8.0, without any notable long gains.
Despite playing 14 games in 2023, Robinson finished the season ranked 28th among running backs in fantasy scoring and did not reach 1,000 total yards, indicating a dip from his earlier output.
Current Backfield Landscape and Upcoming Season Expectations
The Commanders‘ backfield has seen minimal changes ahead of 2024, with only a seventh-round draft pick, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, added as depth. This signals a likely continuation of the shared workload between Robinson and Ekeler. Importantly, Robinson’s average draft position (ADP) has dropped to 31st among running backs, which is lower than his finishing positions from previous seasons.
This lowered draft cost positions Robinson as a potential value pick, especially if he avoids injury or losing playing time. The presence of Ekeler, who is entering his 30s and reportedly prefers not to dominate the backfield, suggests Robinson will maintain significant opportunities to produce.
Final Assessment for Fantasy Managers Considering Robinson
Robinson’s projected ranking at RB30 aligns closely with his ADP, making him a solid mid-to-late round selection for fantasy managers. While not a player to build a team around, he fits well in Hero or Zero RB strategies as a dependable option with upside potential under the right circumstances. His floor remains tied to touchdown production, but the current backfield dynamic leaves room for meaningful fantasy contributions.