Buffalo Bills running back James Cook entered last season as a difficult fantasy football evaluation, with questions about whether the team would fully commit to him as their lead back. Despite those doubts, Cook emerged as one of the better values in a position historically marked by scarcity. As fantasy managers prepare for 2025, the James Cook fantasy football outlook raises the central question: can Cook maintain his impressive touchdown production moving forward?
Following the 2023 campaign, Cook was viewed as a solid RB2 averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game, showing potential upside but lacking clear RB1 status. However, in 2024, he exceeded expectations by posting 16.7 points per game, demonstrating that RB1-level production was attainable for him. Despite this breakout, Cook’s average draft position (ADP) has not risen accordingly; he is currently being selected as the RB14 and around 35th overall, even cheaper than last year. This contrast between performance and draft cost puzzles many but also highlights the increasing sophistication of fantasy managers.
Breaking Down the Factors Behind Cook’s 2024 Improvement
On closer analysis, Cook’s improvement in 2024 wasn’t driven by an increase in opportunity or target share. His opportunity share actually declined slightly from 62.4% in 2023 to 58.9% in 2024, while his target share dropped from 9.9% to 8.1%. Overall volume also decreased, with 245 total opportunities compared to 291 the previous year. Despite these declines in volume metrics, Cook doubled his touchdown total, signaling a notable shift in usage and efficiency.
One key area of change was Cook’s goal-line involvement. Over the first two years of his career, spanning 34 games, he had recorded just nine touchdowns, but in 2024 alone, he found the end zone 18 times on the ground. The Bills’ approach shifted significantly, as Cook’s goal-line touches increased markedly. Where he only had five carries inside the five-yard line in the entire 2023 season, he recorded 15 such carries in 2024, scoring seven touchdowns from within five yards. This expanded role near the goal line was a major factor in his scoring surge, despite sharing the backfield with quarterback Josh Allen, who had previously been the team’s primary goal-line back.
Projecting Cook’s Touchdown Potential for the 2025 Season
Looking ahead to 2025, the big question is whether Cook can keep up this prodigious touchdown pace. His talent is undeniable, but without consistent volume, sustaining high-end fantasy value remains challenging. It is unlikely Cook will replicate an 18-touchdown season, yet a full regression to his prior low total seems equally improbable. If he can manage around 10 touchdowns, Cook’s value at his current draft cost could be justified.
The backfield remains largely unchanged, with Cook entrenched as the lead back and Ty Johnson and Ray Davis providing backup depth. Volume remains the most reliable predictor of fantasy success for running backs. In terms of efficiency, Cook averaged 0.8 fantasy points per opportunity in 2023, while his impressive 2024 efficiency rose to 1.09 points per opportunity—ranking eighth in the league versus 31st previously.
While relying on such efficiency gains is risky, the Bills’ potent offense and strategic usage patterns suggest there is little desire to frequently involve Josh Allen at the goal line when Cook is available. Given this context, Cook’s role as a key scorer appears secure, even if the touchdown total moderates.
Draft Value Considerations and Final Thoughts on James Cook’s Outlook
Initially expecting to advise against selecting Cook, deeper analysis reveals a strong case for him as a value pick. Even if Cook does not sustain the 16 points per game ceiling, simply replicating his 2023 scoring output would offer reasonable return on investment. Currently ranked around RB15, Cook’s draft position aligns closely with his average finishes over the past two seasons, making him a relatively safe choice mid-draft.
Selecting James Cook in the fourth round could avoid the busts frequently found in this draft segment and provide stable production with upside potential. Fantasy managers aiming for a reliable running back with touchdown upside should consider Cook a worthwhile target in 2025 drafts as his role in Buffalo’s offense remains solid.