Jonathan Taylor remains a highly skilled running back whose fantasy football value is under close scrutiny heading into 2025. While he may lack the explosive upside typical of some elite backs, Taylor offers a consistent floor, making him a potentially safe choice for fantasy managers. However, uncertainty at the quarterback position for the Indianapolis Colts casts doubt on how much value Taylor can ultimately provide this season.
Assessing Taylor’s Role and Performance Trends
Taylor has spent much of his career as an RB1, aside from a notably poor 2022 campaign that followed his top running back finish in 2021. Outside of that year, he has maintained a reliable production level, never scoring fewer than 15.6 fantasy points per game. His workload is significant, having played more than 80% of snaps last season and commanding the highest opportunity share among running backs at 88.4%. Such volume would typically be attractive to managers, but Taylor’s lack of involvement in the passing game and heavy reliance on touchdowns raises concern.
Receiving opportunities have been minimal for Taylor, who averaged just 8% target share last season, with a career-high of 10.8% under similar offensive circumstances. Despite the Colts favoring a run-heavy scheme that ranks third in neutral game script run rate, Taylor’s production hinges largely on scoring touchdowns rather than accumulating yards or receptions. This places added pressure on the team’s offense and particularly on the uncertain quarterback situation, featuring Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson as the likely starters.
Touchdown Dependency and Its Risks
Touchdown totals have fluctuated dramatically for Taylor in recent years, highlighting the volatility of his fantasy value. In his peak 2021 season, he scored an impressive 20 rushing touchdowns, solidifying himself as the top fantasy running back. Subsequent years showed regression, with 12 touchdowns in both 2020 and 2024, placing him as a mid-tier RB1. Last season, he managed only eight touchdowns, which pushed him down closer to the low-end RB1 range. The dip to just four touchdowns in 2022 dropped him into RB2 territory. This touchdown reliance creates significant risk, especially given the offensive instability in Indianapolis.
Concerns From Analysts and Competing Options in Drafts
Some fantasy football analysts remain critical of Taylor’s value. A recent analysis pointed out that Taylor ranked 19th in fantasy points per game through Week 15 last season, before benefitting from a few late-season breakout games. His running efficiency metrics have also suffered; he ranks outside the top 20 running backs in expected points added (EPA) per rush over the last three seasons. Additionally, the Colts’ offense as a whole struggles, ranking 24th in EPA per play in 2024. Taylor’s lack of involvement in the passing game further detracts from his overall appeal.
Counterpoint: JT was the RB19 in FP/G from weeks 1-15, before a couple of timely explosion games.
He’s also an overrated runner (outside top 20 RBs in EPA/Rush each of L3 seasons), is in a bad offense (24th in EPA/Play in ‘24), and has a poor receiving role (40th in RB target… https://t.co/vdm8dTOl4I
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) June 22, 2025
Given these factors, some managers rank Taylor around RB11, slightly below his current average draft position near RB10. When considering the appeal of wide receivers and other running backs available in later rounds, Taylor’s value appears to diminish further. While Taylor himself remains a talented player, the combination of his role, touchdown dependency, and quarterback instability makes selecting him at his current price a questionable choice for many fantasy drafters.
The Decision Ahead for Fantasy Managers in 2025
Jonathan Taylor’s profile as a high-volume, touchdown-reliant running back leaves fantasy managers conflicted about his 2025 outlook. Those betting on a repeat of his 20-touchdown 2021 season may find value in drafting him, but the risk of regression and limited receiving involvement temper enthusiasm. The Colts’ unsettled quarterback situation adds another layer of uncertainty that could cap his ceiling.
As drafts approach, managers must weigh Taylor’s steady role against his declining touchdown totals and limited receiving work. This balancing act makes Jonathan Taylor fantasy football value a subject of intense debate heading into the new season, with his potential impact hinging heavily on offensive improvement and quarterback stability for Indianapolis.