Jonnu Smith surprised many in 2024 by becoming a standout in fantasy football leagues, rising from a deep-league option to a dependable producer. As he heads into his age-30 season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, his Jonnu Smith Steelers fantasy outlook is surrounded by uncertainty due to changes in his offensive environment and career stage.
Smith has played 124 NFL games over six seasons with four different teams, bringing veteran experience but also raising questions about his ability to replicate last year’s success. Evaluating his future fantasy value requires examining his recent performance, role in Pittsburgh’s offense, and the impact of his new quarterback.
Analyzing Smith’s Performance and Role in 2024
In 2024, Smith became a prime example of waiting to draft tight ends late, delivering exceptional value at no cost. His career-best numbers included 18 more receptions than his previous high and eight touchdowns, doubling his output since leaving the Tennessee Titans after 2020. Notably, Smith scored seven touchdowns over his final eight games, maintaining over a dozen fantasy points in the two games without a score due to efficiency.
He achieved nine top-10 weekly tight end finishes and outperformed expectations compared to elite peers, including Travis Kelce, regarded as the top tight end. Smith excelled with 40.5% of his usage coming from the slot, a much higher rate than other high-volume players, boosting his yards after catch (YAC) and target share rankings to seventh-best among tight ends.
This breakout season showcased Smith’s ability to thrive in scoring situations and as a reliable receiving option, key factors in his fantasy value.
Smith’s Strength: Yards After Catch and Scoring Patterns
Smith’s profile as a receiver heavily relies on yards after catch. His career average of 6.8 YAC per reception remained strong in 2024 with 5.9 yards, placing him in the 80th percentile. Expert Bradley Locker highlighted Smith’s effectiveness on screens and designed plays that allow him to run upfield and move the chains, which should greatly benefit the Steelers’ offense.
“Jonnu Smith has averaged 6.8 YAC/catch throughout his career, including 5.9 last season (80th percentile) Just get the ball in his hands and let him run upfield. Smith thrives on screens and other manufactured targets Should help the #Steelers a lot in moving the chains” — Bradley Locker, Analyst
Despite the consistency in YAC production, Smith’s touchdown scoring has been uneven. Over eight NFL seasons, he has 28 receiving touchdowns, but 16 of those came during just two campaigns — 2020 with the Titans and 2024 with the Dolphins — on 176 targets. The other six seasons resulted in only 12 touchdowns on 257 total targets, a disparity that complicates predicting his touchdown upside going forward.
Impact of Aaron Rodgers and Team Dynamics in Pittsburgh
Significantly, Smith’s move to the Steelers appears linked to veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers joining the team. Rodgers’ accurate passing and red zone efficiency enhance Smith’s scoring potential. Since 2022, Rodgers has completed passes with a 21.6% touchdown rate inside the 25-yard line, consistent with his career average of 23.8%. Among quarterbacks with at least 20 games played in that span, Rodgers ranks in the upper tier for completion percentage and tight end touchdown production.
Smith’s consistent role as a red zone target further supports optimism. His annual rankings in red zone targets per route are impressive:
- 2020 (Titans): 1st out of 41 qualifiers
- 2021 (Patriots): 1st out of 39 qualifiers
- 2022 (Patriots): 2nd out of 40 qualifiers
- 2023 (Falcons): 12th out of 40 qualifiers
- 2024 (Dolphins): 7th out of 39 qualifiers
Though there is a slight decline in the last two years, various factors like quarterback changes and target competition offer reasonable explanations. Rodgers’ presence could offset any age-related regression as Smith approaches the latter part of his career.
Potential Challenges in Smith’s Fantasy Outlook
Smith, however, faces challenges as he enters his 30s, traditionally a period when tight ends begin to decline. Rodgers has indicated that his time with the Steelers may be limited, suggesting a “one-and-done” scenario that adds risk to Smith’s long-term outlook.
Additionally, competition for red zone targets could reduce Smith’s scoring opportunities. Pat Freiermuth, dubbed “Patty Football,” presents a direct challenger for red zone receptions. Smith’s fantasy outlook must also consider DK Metcalf, a strong red zone threat at receiver, and a younger, versatile running game that could divert targets and touchdown chances.
These factors, combined with Pittsburgh’s generally methodical offensive style under Rodgers, introduce uncertainty into Smith’s touchdown projections, which are crucial for tight end fantasy value.
Yet, despite these risks, Smith looks more appealing as a Tier 3 tight end option this season. With Brock Bowers and Trey McBride considered Tier 1 and George Kittle the lone Tier 2 player in this assessment, Smith’s role in the Steelers’ offense as a high-priority target makes him worthy of investment.
Why Jonnu Smith Remains a Viable Fantasy Option in 2025
Jonnu Smith’s move to Pittsburgh positions him as the second most targeted option behind the primary weapons, in an offense expected to sustain efficiency with Rodgers at the helm. While the unpredictability of touchdown production remains a concern, Smith’s ability to generate yards after the catch and his usage near the end zone provide a solid foundation for continued fantasy relevance.
Players and fantasy managers projecting the Steelers’ 2025 season should weigh Smith’s established strengths against the natural challenges of age and competition. His connection with Rodgers offers a promising, though cautious, outlook for those seeking a dependable tight end option with upside.