Jordan Love, the Green Bay Packers’ quarterback, showed promise in his first season as a starter two years ago by averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game, ranking him as the fifth-best QB overall. However, last season saw a noticeable decline, as he dropped to 16.3 points per game and finished 16th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Fantasy football managers hoping for a rebound in 2025 face uncertainty regarding Love’s potential to return to his initial form.
Early Years and Unexpected Breakout
Before becoming the Packers’ lead quarterback, Love’s NFL action was limited. Selected 26th overall in the 2020 draft, he did not play during his rookie season. Over the next two years, he appeared sporadically, completing just one start and showing very little impact. This made his 2023 season, in which he averaged a strong 19.4 fantasy points per game, surprisingly impressive.
Following that breakout, some fantasy players overestimated Love’s capabilities. Despite improved passing efficiency in 2024, his fantasy output actually declined, suggesting that his overall value in fantasy leagues is more fragile than initially believed.
Factors Behind the 2024 Decline
Two primary factors contributed to Love’s reduced fantasy production last season, neither directly caused by his performance. First, Love’s lack of mobility limited his rushing upside. In 2023, he gained 247 rushing yards with four touchdowns on the ground. That production diminished sharply in 2024 to just 83 yards and one rushing touchdown, a difference that cost roughly two fantasy points per game.
The second factor was a significant shift in the Packers’ offensive approach. Green Bay’s big offseason move in 2024 was acquiring Josh Jacobs, a powerful running back who led the team to prioritize the running game more than before. The Packers’ rate of running plays during neutral game situations increased from 45% in 2023 to 53% in 2024—the highest in the NFL.
Notably, teams that rank highest in rushing during neutral game situations typically have mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, or Lamar Jackson. The Packers, however, operate with a pocket passer in Love, yet still chose to run more frequently than most teams, limiting Love’s passing opportunities.
Slow Offensive Tempo Further Limits Love’s Fantasy Value
Compounding the issue, the Packers employed a very slow offensive pace. They averaged 29.4 seconds per snap in 2024, the ninth-slowest in the league, and ran only 540 offensive plays, far fewer than teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, who ran 839 plays. This deliberate pace restricts the number of chances Love has to accumulate fantasy points, making it difficult for him to regain QB1 status in fantasy football.
Outlook for 2025: Limited Signs of Positive Change
Looking ahead, it is unclear what will alter Love’s situation this upcoming season. Should the Packers struggle defensively, they might be forced to play at a faster pace and increase passing frequency, which would benefit Love’s fantasy value. However, expectations are that Green Bay’s defense remains average or better, meaning the current offensive style is likely to continue.
While the addition of wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round of the draft offers some hope, it does not necessarily indicate a shift toward a more pass-heavy strategy. The offense is still expected to revolve around Josh Jacobs and a conservative play-calling approach.
The Packers possess a solid group of receivers but lack a true elite playmaker who commands the ball consistently. Their plan appears to emphasize running the football and limiting passing attempts, an approach that is not favorable for Love’s fantasy prospects.
Where Does Love Stand Among Fantasy QBs?
Currently, Love is ranked as the 18th quarterback in fantasy leagues, which is just below his average draft position at 17th. This ranking reflects skepticism about his upside. Given that most fantasy managers only select one quarterback and rarely venture deep into the positional rankings, Love’s status as a borderline QB2 makes him a difficult choice.
For those seeking a late-round quarterback with breakout potential, targeting mobile signal-callers is often a preferred strategy. Love’s lack of scrambling ability diminishes his appeal to those chasing extra upside in the later rounds of drafts.
Realistic Expectations: A Backup and Spot Starter Role
Jordan Love is likely to have occasional strong performances and could serve as a streaming option during favorable matchups throughout the season. However, he does not present himself as a reliable QB1 option for fantasy managers planning their drafts in 2025.
The uncertainty surrounding his usage and the offensive philosophy of the Packers likely confine Love to a role as a quarterback2 at best, requiring fantasy players to approach him with caution and keep expectations tempered.